Bundesliga Betting Preview: Best Bets, Odds for Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund
May 21, 2020
By Marco Stein
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Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund Preview & Betting Tips
Germany’s Bundesliga was the first of the big 5 European soccer leagues to return to action from the Covid-19 lockdown.
Five of the top six wasted no time in getting back into their stride last weekend by winning their respective matches.
Among those winners were Borussia Dortmund and Wolfsburg and the pair will now meet for a big clash on Saturday.
Bundesliga - Matchday 27
Saturday's Best Bets
Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund
Date: Saturday, May 23
Time: 9:30 a.m. ET
TV: FS1, DraftKings Stream
Bundesliga Betting Odds
Wolfsburg still on the march
Wolfsburg are sitting sixth in the Bundesliga, but they are a long way off the points-pace in terms of the title race. Heading into the weekend’s action they are trailing second-placed Dortmund by a massive fifteen points.
On their return, Wolfsburg dug out a 2-1 away win over the struggling FC Augsburg thanks to a stoppage-time winner from Daniel Ginczek. That was their seventh game unbeaten in the top flight.
Those three points earned did see them continue their climb up the table. Wolfsburg had suffered 7 defeats in a run of 10 games before their current seven-match undefeated streak. But they still look too big of a risk to support to pull off an upset for a big reason.
Wolfsburg aren’t carrying much home form with them this season.
It is just a W4 D6 L3 record that Die Wölfe holds at the Volkswagen Arena this term. Home and away combined, they have returned just one win from eight games played against others in the current top-eight positions (D3 L4).
Just 38% of Wolfsburg’s home games in this season’s Bundesliga have made it over the 2.5 goal line. However, going over the 2.5 goal line for +150 may be the way to swing in Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund betting.
That’s because seven of Wolfsburg’s last nine league games have made it over 2.5 goals, four of the last seven have ended over 3.5 goals. So with the prolific Dortmund coming to town, the goals may well flow in this game.
Head to head
Dortmund claimed a 3-0 win over Wolfsburg earlier this season
Borussia Dortmund are an unbeaten W8 D1 in their last nine against Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg have failed to score in any of their last six games against Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund average three goals per game across their last three trips to Wolfsburg
Borussia Dortmund back in business
Dortmund roared back into form with a resounding 4-0 home success over Schalke last weekend. Young striking sensation Erling Haaland opened the scoring for them.
The Norwegian, who has scored 10 goals in just 9 league appearances for Dortmund, makes +130 for a Haaland/Dortmund Score/Win Double a viable selection.
The away record of Borussia Dortmund this season is W6 D3 L4. Going into the enforced break they had won three of their last four on the road. Lucien Favre’s men are second only in the Bundelisga goalscoring charts to leaders Bayern Munich, who they have a four-point gap to make up on.
But their success over Schalke (who started last weekend above Wolfsburg) fired BVB to their fifth straight league success. Dortmund average over 2 goals per away game in this campaign and 85% of their road games have seen at least three goals in them.
Granted, they are facing a tidy Wolfsburg defence, but it’s hard not to back Dortmund for more goals. Over 2.5 goals have happened in 15 of Dortmund's last 17 league games.
Dortmund can’t take their foot off the gas in the title race, certainly not ahead of their huge meeting with Bayern next weekend. There’s massive pressure on them to deliver at Wolfsburg.
Borussia Dortmund should have enough about them to produce the away win. They have scored exactly double the number of league goals that Wolfsburg have managed this season.
Wolfsburg have done a tremendous job of climbing the table, but seeing them struggle to beat a below-par Augusburg last weekend, doesn’t bode well for them taking on the chasing Dortmund.
Pick: Borussia Dortmund & Over 2.5 Goals +125
Last week in review
The thing that was perhaps least expected about last week's Bundelisga return was the mount of goals flying around. A lack of match sharpness because of the lockdown and playing behind closed doors was predicted to dampen scoring.
Not so. Six of the nine matches played produced at least three goals in them. Just one was goalless, a fixture between bottom-three sides Dusseldorf and Paderborn.
The other notable thing was that there was only one home win last weekend (Dortmund), with five of the nine away teams picking up wins. Those are trends which throw more weight behind Dortmund’s chances at Wolfsburg.
Odds provided by FanDuel
Odds Subject to Change (T&C's Apply, 21+, US Legal States Only)