Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:44 AM

Croatia vs. Spain Predictions, Odds, Preview

June 27, 2021
by Toby Maxtone-Smith
Soccer Expert

The fifth match of the Round of 16 takes place at the Parken Stadium in Copenhagen between Croatia and Spain. It will air live on ESPN at 12:00 p.m. ET.

Croatia vs. Spain Picks & Predictions

This is a very hard match to call from a betting perspective. Spain look a touch too short at 4/7 for a team that could not beat Sweden and Poland on home soil. But there are too many questions over Croatia. They are aging at the back and lack a reliable goal scorer without Perisic.

If we take the view that Spain’s win over Slovakia was more down to Slovakia’s incompetence then a bet on a low-scorer comes into play. Neither side has clicked particularly well going forward and both will focus on dominating the midfield battle first and foremost.

For a first goal scorer Paulo Sarabia of Spain looks a nice bet at 13/2. He excelled coming into the side against Slovakia and should keep his place.

Score Prediction: Spain 1 Croatia 0

Best Bets

  • Under 2.5 (-125)
  • Spain win to nil (+145)
  • Paulo Sarabia (Spain) First Goal scorer (+650)
  • Both Teams Score - No (-155)

Croatia vs. Spain Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Group D Runner-up vs. Group E Runner-up
  • Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
  • Venue: Telia Parken
  • Location: Copenhagen, Denmark
  • Date: Monday, June 28, 2021
  • Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

Betting Odds - Croatia vs. Spain

Spain are rated as heavy favorites for this match and have been backed heavily in recent days. They are now 4/7 with Croatia, who lost the 2018 World Cup final, out at 11/2 with the draw 14/5. Spain are 1/4 to qualify with Croatia 11/4. Over 2.5 goals is 1/1 with the unders narrowly favored at odds of 4/5.

Odds per BetMGM - Subject to Change

Croatia Betting Outlook

Croatia’s 3-1 win over Scotland ensured that they finished second in Group D on goals scored. It was their first convincing performance of the tournament and the sense that they have declined from 2018 has not been disproven so far at Euro 2020. The midfield battle against Spain will be fascinating, however.

Along with Italy these are the competition’s two most possession-oriented sides. Croatia have been dealt a major blow, however, by the absence through Covid of their top scorer Ivan Perisic. He is their most consistent attacker and will be sorely missed.

Inside the Stats - Group Matches

  • Straight Up: 1-1-1
  • Over-Under: 1-2
  • Both Teams to Score: 2-1
  • Goals For: 4
  • Goals Against: 3
  • Goals Differential: +1

Croatia has seen a draw in the first half in four of its last five Euro matches. (AP)

Spain Betting Outlook

It is hard to know what to make of Spain’s 5-0 win over Slovakia that secured them qualification to the knockout stages. It came after two draws where Spain were dominant and spurned numerous chances. Was this a case of their luck finally turning after two good, unrewarded displays?

Or was it partly down to the ineptitude of a Slovakia side who seemed to give up once the first goal went in? Spain’s attack will have been given a lot of confidence from the result but they will find it harder to create against Croatia.

Inside the Stats - Group Matches

  • Straight Up: 1-0-2
  • Over-Under: 1-2
  • Both Teams to Score: 1-2
  • Goals For: 6
  • Goals Against: 1
  • Goals Differential: +5

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