Premier League Matchday 5 Picks, Predictions, Odds
Andrew Beasley is back for best bets, predictions and picks for Premier League Matchday 5 fixtures that begin on Tuesday, August 30. This is an early Matchday in the week, as Matchday 6 is still set for this weekend beginning on Saturday, September 3.
Crystal Palace vs. Brentford
- Date: Tuesday, August 30
- Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Selhurst Park
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Crystal Palace (+105)
These teams often crop up in ‘best value selection’ tips as both had better underlying stats than their league positions suggested last season. So, what happens when they play each other?
In 2021/22, they largely cancelled each other out, with both meetings ending in 0-0 draws. That could easily happen again (no Premier League team has more draws than the Eagles since the start of last season) but the expected goal model suggests the home team should be priced at around -140. As such, it looks like Crystal Palace are the value pick in the value pick derby.
Southampton vs. Chelsea
- Date: Tuesday, August 30
- Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Venue: St. Mary's Stadium
- Location: Southampton, England
Best Bet: BTS - No (+100)
When Chelsea visited St Marys Stadium in April, they won 6-0. While there’s a good chance they’ll win again, it almost certainly won’t be by as wide a margin. Thomas Tuchel’s side have only scored once in their two away matches so far this season and fell apart in their 3-0 loss at Leeds in their previous game on the road.
Although bookmakers expect both teams to score, based on last season’s data this would be a ‘no’ selection. With the sides posting similar numbers as they did in 2021/22 it’s reasonable to expect at least one of them to end with nil by their name.
Arsenal vs. Aston Villa
- Date: Wednesday, August 31
- Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Emirates Stadium
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Arsenal Win to Nil (+135)
Anyone looking to predict the one team who would have a 100 per cent record after four matches had been played probably would not have selected Arsenal, but here we are. As well as they have played, the Gunners have been helped by a favorable fixture list.
Nonetheless, that continues here and it’s hard not to see them winning without conceding. Aston Villa have averaged a little over one expected goal per game so far in 2022/23 and their fixtures have been easier than Arsenal’s. This looks a match where they might be lucky to get nil, as the saying goes.
Bournemouth vs. Wolves
- Date: Wednesday, August 31
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Vitality Stadium
- Location: Bournemouth, England
Best Bet: Draw (+230)
We selected Wolves to draw in the previous match week, so we have a 90th minute blast from Allan Saint-Maximin to thank a for a nice little pay out. But while Newcastle left it very late, it continued a long running pattern for Bruno Lage’s side. They have drawn four of their last 10 league games, and though they lost the other six, they were only beaten by more than a single goal by Liverpool and Manchester City.
Their games are almost always close. Bournemouth will be looking for a reaction to their Anfield pasting, but they simply don’t have the quality at this level. This looks like another Wolves match which will end in a draw.
Liverpool vs. Newcastle United
- Date: Wednesday, August 31
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Anfield
- Location: Liverpool, England
Best Bet: Mo Salah Anytime Goal (TBD)
In Liverpool’s 9-0 win over Bournemouth, Mohamed Salah had the joint-highest xG value chance any Reds player has had in the league since he joined the club, but somehow put it wide of the goal.
He has had three clear-cut chances and a total of 2.2 expected goals in Liverpool’s last two home games without scoring. Salah has faced Newcastle at Anfield on five previous occasions and has always found the net. He can end his slow home start to 2022/23 with a goal here.
Leicester City vs. Manchester United
- Date: Thursday, September 1
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: King Power Stadium
- Location: Leicester, England
Best Bet: Draw (+220)
While both teams started the season badly, Manchester United have managed to pull themselves out of the abyss with successive wins over Liverpool and Southampton. For Leicester, the outlook remains bleak.
The Foxes were deceptively poor last season – they should have narrowly escaped relegation according to the underlying data – and they have had a bad summer in the transfer market. United remain a long way from being as good as they want to be, but they should have too much for Leicester.
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