Last Updated Feb 20, 2023, 11:35 AM
PSG vs Bayern Munich Champions League Picks, Predictions, Odds
US Sports Betting Industry Expert
2022-23 UEFA Champions League
Matchups & Odds
Knockout: Round of 16 | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Final
The Champions League knockout stage begins with the tie of the round in Paris as the Round of 16 begins with first-leg action.
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Bayern Munich is a matchup worthy of Europe’s top club competition. It’s one we’ve become familiar with. These sides met in the knockout stages last season and in the 2020 final.
We’ll see some of the biggest names in the game and I hope - and think - plenty of goals.
PSG vs. Bayern Munich Picks & Score Predictions
Because both Bayern and PSG are capable of scoring half a dozen but if their respective domestic form is anything to go by, are hardly airtight at the back. Both teams scoring looks an inevitability at odds of -227. Add over 2.5 goals to that and you’ll get odds of -139 for a thoroughly uninspiring double.
It’s easy to see why the bookies head down this line of thinking. There are goals across the pitch. Only three teams scored more goals in the Champions League group stages this season than PSG did and Bayern are one of them. It was 3-2 to the Parisians when these sides met in the first leg last season. A similar scoreline here wouldn’t be a huge surprise.
PSG 3 Bayern 2 (+2000)
PSG 2 Bayern 2 (+1000)
PSG vs. Bayern Munich Best Bets
But we’re here for betting value and there isn’t much in backing over on the goal line. Instead, let’s look at the goal scorer market. Kylian Mbappe is the joint-top scorer in the competition this season. He’s in the matchday squad but it’s doubtful if he’ll start.
Instead, look at Lionel Messi to get one at any time. He’s at +175 to score in the match which - while perhaps a little uninspiring - looks great value considering his form and the fact he’s scored four times in the Champions League already this season.
Game Best Bets:
Both Teams to Score - Yes (-225)
Over 2.5 Goals (-188)
Over 3.5 Goals (+130)
Lionel Messi - Anytime Goal Scorer (+175)
PSG vs. Bayern Munich Odds
The bookies can’t separate these teams. It’s +160 for a home win and +155 for Bayern to do the same. The draw is out at +260 which seems fair considering these sides haven’t tied in any of their 11 previous competitive meetings.
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Bayern Munich
Three-Way Match Odds
Paris Saint-Germain +160
Bayern Munich +155
Over 2.5 (-188)
Under 2.5 (+150)
Odds to win Champions League
Bayern Munich +650
Paris Saint-Germain +700
Odds to Advance to Quarterfinals
Paris Saint-Germain +125
Bayern Munich -175
Odds Subject to Change - per bet365
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Bayern Munich Betting Stats
Paris Saint-Germain (France)
Group Results: 4-2-0, GF 16 GA 7
It’s hard to imagine a team not losing a game and finishing in second place in the group stage but that’s what happened to PSG, who tied with Benfica for first place but lost on an away goals tiebreaker. The difference puts the club in a tough position with Bayern on deck instead of playing a runner-up.
Bayern Munich (Germany)
Group Results: 6-0-0, GF 18 GA 2
Despite losing striker Robert Lewandowski, the Bavarian Giants dominated in the Champions League with a perfect 6-0 record. Two of those wins came against the former player and his new club Barcelona, with Bayern notching 2-0 and 3-0 victories.
Paris Saint-Germain Betting Outlook & Players to Watch
Despite winning 29 trophies in the last decade, there is still one notable gap in the cabinet. The Champions League is the one PSG want but team balance will be the key. Expect the Parisians to line up in the 3-4-3 formation that manager Christophe Galtier has developed in order to accommodate a front three that usually consists of Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar.
Their setup feels tailor-made for the knockout stages of the Champions League. A compressed back seven behind three flexible forwards capable of countering. Midfielders Marco Verratti and especially Vitinha need to be at their best. Verratti is no stranger to the referee’s notebook but has walked a fine line in Europe this season. Four yellow cards in five matches is some achievement. At +150 odds for him to get one card here, that looks good.
The worry is that one of those three forwards may be out of action. Kylian Mbappe hasn’t played since suffering a hamstring injury on February 1st but did return to training before this tie. With the Frenchman potentially not fully fit, Lionel Messi should shine as previously mentioned.
Player Prop Best Bet:
Marco Verratti to get a Card (+150)
Bayern Munich Betting Outlook & Players to Watch
It’s strange discussing Bayern Munich in the Champions League without Robert Lewandowski in the frame. The Bavarians haven’t missed him so far. They were the only side to win all six group-stage matches - two of which came against Lewadowski’s Barcelona.
Expect PSG to sit back and give the Bavarians plenty of possession so set pieces may be the key for Bayern here. PSG conceded seven goals in the group stage this season and only two of them came from open play. Only Juventus and Liverpool scored more goals from set pieces than the German champions.
Attention should be paid to the on-loan Manchester City fullback Joao Cancelo. He’s only played 138 minutes for Bayern so far but already has one assist and four key passes to his name. He’ll come up against the attack-minded Achraf Hakimi down PSG’s right flank and could be the key for Bayern. He’s at +500 to get an assist in the match which looks like great value.
Player Prop Bet:
Joao Cancelo to get an Assist (+500)
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Bayern Munich Betting Resources
Date: Tuesday, Feb. 14, 2023
Matchup: Round of 16
Stadium: Parc des Princes
Location: Paris, France
TV-Time: Paramount +, 3:00 p.m. ET
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