Tottenham vs Brighton Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

12 minute read

Usually, the side sat in 17th place on 38 points would be heading into the final day feeling nervy about their chances of survival. Usually, they wouldn’t be celebrating winning a European trophy, either.

But Tottenham Hotspur aren’t having a usual season. Fresh off their Bilbao triumph, it’s time to return to Premier League action one last time on what has been an unforgettable season for Ange Postecoglou.

Expect Sunday’s home match against Brighton on Sunday to be of little consequence to the hosts. Expect one eye to be on last Wednesday and the other to be on next season.

That opens the door for Fabian Hurzeler’s side to add to their impressive season tally of 58 points. 

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Analysis of the Match

The final day brings together two clubs that have walked drastically different paths this season. However, both arrive at the end, with a little something to fight for, with Brighton having a potentially more important reason.

Tottenham’s campaign may have collapsed in the league long ago, but their Europa League triumph has changed the narrative entirely. With a major trophy secured after a long 17 years, Sunday’s match transforms into a homecoming celebration. Still, Postecoglou insists there is business to finish, and his players are expected to treat the last game at home with respect.

For Brighton, the motivation is driven by opportunity rather than closure. Fabian Hurzeler’s team heads into the weekend clinging to eighth place, knowing that other results could keep their European hopes alive.

It is a complicated path that depends on other outcomes. However, one thing is clear. The Seagulls must hold their ground. That alone gives them all the incentive they need to approach this fixture with full intensity.

On the pitch, we are likely to see an open, attack-minded game, despite Postecoglou’s parked bus approach in the Europa League finals. Neither side is known for defensive solidity. Spurs have kept just two clean sheets at home, and Brighton are rarely conservative, especially away.

There is also history to consider. These two have produced high-scoring, end-to-end matches with little sign of caution. Only one of the last five clashes ended without both teams scoring, or over 2.5 goals. Their last three games saw a total of 14 goals.

In other words, we might expect the same here. Brighton are pushing for a result that could mean Europe, and Spurs are keen to end a turbulent domestic season on a positive note. A draw might suit the visitors, but both teams have what it takes to give an entertaining send-off on Sunday.

Tottenham Analysis and Form

Ange Postecoglou set aside his trademark attacking "Ange-ball" philosophy to secure Tottenham Hotspur's triumph in Bilbao. By clinching their first major trophy since 2008 and a first European title in 31 years, Spurs elevated their season from poor to historic in a single night. 

It wasn't a classic final, as Tottenham claimed victory with the sole goal of the match late in the first half, courtesy of a fortunate deflection involving Luke Shaw and Brennan Johnson, before retreating into a defensive low block.

Postecoglou’s side ended the match with just 26% possession—nearly half their average in the Premier League this season—creating 0.00 expected goals (xG) after taking the lead. Yet, for Spurs, the silverware is paramount, and it paves the way for squad strengthening, helped by the financial rewards of participating in the next Champions League as the sixth English team.

However, questions linger about whether the Australian manager will lead them into Europe's premier competition next season. With Tottenham enduring their worst-ever Premier League campaign, suffering 21 defeats, Postecoglou's future remains uncertain.

Sunday’s match will serve as a trophy parade and a moment of celebration—or liberation—after such an arduous season. For some, it might also mark a farewell tour for "Big Ange." Regardless, it promises to be a cherished occasion for every Spurs supporter.

Brighton Analysis and Form

Brighton have reignited their hopes of European football next season, courtesy of Jack Hinshelwood's late winner against Liverpool on Monday.

The Seagulls twice fought back to beat the champions, positioning themselves to potentially secure 8th place in the table with just a point on Sunday. 

However, to clinch a spot in next season's Conference League, Brighton would need a series of results to go their way. Chelsea must defeat Real Betis in next Wednesday's final, and then the Blues must finish either seventh or sixth in the Premier League, provided Newcastle finishes in seventh. 

It's a complex puzzle for Fabian Hürzeler’s men, but Monday's victory further demonstrated Brighton's resilience. 

It marked the third instance this season in which they overturned a half-time deficit to win a league match, with only Fulham achieving that feat more frequently (five times).

Despite what could soon be Brighton's second-highest league finish in history, it may not be enough to ensure a European return. This is primarily due to two rough patches in their campaign: a winless streak spanning eight matches from late November 2024 to early January 2025, and a poor run from mid-February to mid-March, where they collected just three points from a possible 15.

Had the Seagulls shown greater consistency, they might still be in the hunt for Champions League qualification.

Nevertheless, Brighton have proved their mettle on big occasions, averaging the same points per game (1.6) against the top five clubs—Liverpool, Arsenal, Newcastle, Chelsea, and Manchester City—as they have against the three relegated sides.

Head to Head 

Over the previous ten meetings, these two clubs have overseen a 2.90 goals scored per90 average. Each of the last four contests has produced three or more goals with both teams finding the net, amounting to 17 goals scored.

Interestingly, since October 2014, there has only been one draw (1-1 in April 2018) in the seventeen games between these two sides. The most recent head-to-head between Tottenham and Brighton got off to a flying start for Spurs. Brennan Johnson put the visitors ahead in the 23rd minute before James Maddison doubled their advantage.

But from 0-2 down at half-time, Brighton clawed their way back into the match, starting with a goal just after half-time from Yankuba Minteh. Rutter and Welbeck's strikes in quick succession saw the Seagulls with a 3-2 lead after only 66 minutes.

Brighton's comeback win over Spurs was one of four occasions this season when Sunday’s visitors have won a fixture after conceding the first goal.  On Monday, after Harvey Elliot opened the scoring for Liverpool, Brighton again battled their way into a winning position (3-2). 

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Tottenham predicted starting lineup:
Kinsky; Spence, Davies, Danso, Reguillon; Sarr, Gray; Heung-Min, Odobert, Moore; Tel. 

Brighton predicted starting lineup:
Verbruggen; Estupinan, Webster, van Hecke, Mats Wieffer; Ayari, Baleba; Mitoma, Gruda, Minteh; Welbeck

After an impressive showing against Liverpool, Brajan Gruda is tipped to retain his position in the Brighton line-up. Kaoru Mitoma will likely keep his place, supplementing the Danny Welbeck-led attack.

However, the most intriguing team news for Brighton's visit to the Tottenham stadium is what line-up we'll see from Spurs. What kind of team will we see after winning the Europa League on Wednesday evening, ahead of a parade through North London on Friday?

There will likely be heavy rotation from the side that started the final. Ange Postecoglou should field a set of players who missed out on minutes in the showpiece event. Tel and Mikey Moore should play in forward areas if that's the case.

At the other end of the pitch, Spence and Reguilon might flank Davies and Danso in the middle, behind Archie Gray and one other in midfield. Captain Son Heung-Min did feature in Bilbao, though he might be in line to lead his side out to rapturous homecoming applause versus Brighton.

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Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 2 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson