World Cup Finals Odds

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

9 minute read

The 2026 FIFA World Cup — co-hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada — has reached its final weekend. What began as a 48-team field is down to the last two, with the championship match set for Sunday, July 19 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Updated on 8/13/26

Polymarket

Deposit $10, Get a $20 Trading Bonus!

Bonus Code

INSIDER

Claim $20

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See http://polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, and OH.

Who's In the Final

Spain punched the first ticket to the final, dismantling France 2-0 in Tuesday's semifinal in Dallas. It's Spain's first World Cup final appearance since 2010, the year they won their only title, and it ended France's bid for a third straight final.

Spain's other semifinalist opponent will be determined Wednesday, July 15, when England faces defending champion Argentina at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Kickoff is 3 p.m. ET. It's one of the sport's most heated rivalries, and oddsmakers have it as close to a pick'em as it gets.

Whoever loses on Wednesday still has business left: France will face the England-Argentina loser in the third-place match at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.

Final Match Schedule

Current Odds to Win It All

Spain's win over France reshuffled the championship betting board. La Roja are now the clear favorite regardless of who they face Sunday.

Odds via FOX Sports/DraftKings, as of July 15. Subject to change.

Spain opened this tournament as the favorite, briefly ceded that spot to France once Les Bleus caught fire in the knockout rounds, and has now reclaimed it after Tuesday's result. On prediction markets like Kalshi, Spain sits at roughly a 58% implied probability of lifting the trophy, with England around 23% and Argentina near 20% heading into Wednesday's semifinal.

Looking ahead to Sunday, the matchup odds shift slightly depending on the opponent:

• If England advances: a rematch of the Euro 2024 final, which Spain won — Spain would open as a modest favorite.
• If Argentina advances: the defending champions chasing back-to-back titles — Spain would be an even heavier favorite in that lookahead line.

Storylines to Watch

• Lamine Yamal vs. tournament pressure — Spain's teenage star was appearing in his first World Cup semifinal Tuesday and delivered. He and Pedri give Spain one of the most talented young cores left in the field.
• Messi's title defense — Argentina's captain has scored eight goals through six matches but was held off the scoresheet in the quarterfinals. At 39, this is very likely his last World Cup.
• England's 1966 drought — the Three Lions haven't won the tournament since hosting it nearly 60 years ago, and this core of players is running out of chances together.
• Mbappé's tournament ends early — France's talisman put together one of the standout individual campaigns of the tournament before Spain's defense shut him down in the semifinal.

World Cup Final FAQ

Where is the 2026 World Cup Final being played? MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Sunday, July 19.

Who is favored to win? Spain, after beating France 2-0 in the semifinal. Sportsbooks have them around -155 regardless of whether England or Argentina wins Wednesday's semifinal.

When do we find out Spain's opponent? Wednesday, July 15, after England and Argentina play their semifinal in Atlanta (3 p.m. ET).

Who won the last World Cup, in 2022? Argentina beat France on penalties after a 3-3 draw in the final in Qatar.

Is there a third-place match? Yes — France plays the England/Argentina semifinal loser on Saturday, July 18, in Miami Gardens.

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 5 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson