Last Updated Jan 08, 2022, 9:19 AM

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Predictions, Picks, Odds

The final week of regular-season NFL action will resume Sunday mid-afternoon with a meaningful AFC East matchup between the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins. Coverage begins from Hard Rock Stadium at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS.

SCORE PREDICTION

Patriots 27, Dolphins 20

BEST BETS

Over 39.5 (-110) at DraftKings

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS PREDICTIONS

After finishing second in the AFC East with a record of 10-6 SU last year, Miami posted a surprisingly poor start to start this season, as the Dolphins opened with a head-scratching 1-7 SU and 2-5-1 ATS skid – with four of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

Miami completely flipped the script during the second half though, considering the Dolphins enter Week 18 sitting at 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS across the last eight games – propelled by their defense surrendering just 19.7 PPG on 307 YPG during that timeframe.

On the other hand, New England stumbled out to a disappointing start with rookie Mac Jones under center, as the Patriots kicked off the season with a worrisome 2-4 SU and ATS skid – while scoring 17 PTS or less in half of those matchups (20.8 PPG).

New England has played excellent on both sides of the sticks since Week 6 though, considering the Patriots enter Sunday’s matchup 8-2 SU and ATS across the last ten games, highlighted by their offense averaging 31.3 PPG – and their defense surrendering 14.3 PPG during that span.

I’ll take the over here, as despite this matchup containing two premier AFC defenses, I still think the number is too low for a meeting between squads that have both surrendered 24+ PTS in two of their last three games.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING ODDS

More Odds | Futures Odds

The Dolphins enter Sunday’s matchup as touchdown-underdogs against the visiting Patriots – marking the fifth time Miami has been an underdog at home this season.

The total for Sunday’s affair is stationed near OU 40 at most shops, which marks the lowest number set for a Patriots’ game since visiting the Texans in Week 5 (O 39).

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING RESOURCES

  • Matchup: AFC East
  • Date: Sunday, January 9, 2022
  • Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
  • Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
  • TV-Time: CBS - 4:25 p.m. ET

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-6
  • ATS: 10-6
  • O/U: 8-8
  • ATS - Away: 4-4

After drafting Jones in the first round of the latest draft, New England’s offense struggled miserably to kick off the season, as the Patriots generated just 17.8 PPG on roughly 311 YPG across the first four weeks of their new signal-caller’s tenure.

New England has dominated offensively since Week 5 though, considering the Patriots enter Week 18 boasting wins in eight of their last ten games – while averaging 31.3 PPG on 369 YPG across that window.

MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 8-8
  • ATS: 8-7-1
  • O/U: 6-10
  • ATS - Home: 4-4

After a strong 10-6 SU regular-season showing last year, the Dolphins posted an extremely underwhelming start to this season, as Miami opened with a 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS skid – while averaging just 14.8 PPG offensively across that window.

The Dolphins offense still isn’t great, but it’s playing well enough to support their elite defense, considering Miami is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS across the last eight games, while averaging a modest 21.3 PPG offensively – and surrendering 14.5 PPG defensively during that timeframe.

The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games. (AP)

INSIDE THE STATS - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

  • Record: 10-6
  • Division Standing: 1st - AFC East
  • Points Scored: 438
  • Points Allowed: 270
  • PS/G: 27.4 (8th)
  • PA/G: 16.9 (1st)

INSIDE THE STATS - MIAMI DOLPHINS

  • Record: 8-8
  • Division Standing: 3rd - AFC East
  • Points Scored: 308
  • Points Allowed: 349
  • PS/G: 19.3 (24th)
  • PA/G: 21.8 (16th)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

  • NWE: Mac Jones - QB (67.6% CMP, 3,540 YDS, 21 TD, 12 INT)
  • NWE: Damien Harris - RB (191 CAR, 14 REC, 988 TOT YDS, 14 TD)
  • MIA: Tua Tagovailoa - QB (67.8% CMP, 2,544 YDS, 15 TD, 10 INT)
  • MIA: Jaylen Waddle - WR (99 REC, 988 YDS, 6 TD)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING CONCLUSION

After stomping the Jaguars in Foxborough last week (W, 50-10), the Patriots enter Week 18 favored by roughly a touchdown over the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium – marking the fifth time Miami has been an underdog at home this year.

I’ll take the over here, as the Patriots have already clinched a playoff berth, and the Dolphins have already been eliminated from playoff contention – so I’m anticipating a relatively relaxed defensive effort from both squads in their final regular-season matchup.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS RAMS BETTING TRENDS

  • The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five matchups between Miami and New England.
  • The Dolphins are 4-2 ATS in their last six matchups against New England.
  • The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
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