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UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira Betting Odds, Analysis & Predictions

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira
Betting Odds & Best Bets

Date: Wednesday, May 13 2020
Venue: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena
Location: Jacksonville, Florida
TV/Time: ESPN, ESPN+, 6:00 p.m. ET

UFC Fight Night Trends | UFC Expert Picks

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

  • Anthony Smith -180 Glover Teixeira +150
  • Ovince Saint Preux -140 Ben Rothwell +120
  • Drew Dober -115 Alexander Hernandez -105
  • Ricky Simon -165 Ray Borg +145
  • Marvin Vettori (OFF) Karl Roberson (OFF)
  • Philipe Lins -160 Andrei Arlovski +140
  • Thiago Moises -110 Michael Johnson -110
  • Sijara Eubanks-380 Sarah Moras +320
  • Omar Morales -160 Gabriel Benitez +140
  • Hunter Azure -170 Brian Kelleher +150
  • Chase Sherman -150 Ike Villanueva +130
OFF - Per Reports - Roberson fell ill after a tough weight cut and the fight was postponed. The illness was not related to the coronavirus.

Bouts &Odds - Subject to Change - Updates

With the global pandemic sidelining live sports for nearly two months, UFC 249 took center stage on ESPN this past Saturday night. From the lid-lifter between light heavyweight Ryan Spann and Smilin’ Sam Alvey to the main event pitting Justin Gaethje against Tony Ferguson, the 11-fight card delivered and then some.

There were three split decisions and I scored Anthony Pettis’s unanimous-decision win over Donald Cerrone in favor of ‘Cowboy.’ We had breakout performances from Bryce Mitchell and Justin Gaethje, a surprising retirement announcement (or contract negotiation ploy?) from Henry Cejudo after another stellar performance, an upset win by 42-year-old Aleksei Olynek and another less-than-30-seconds beatdown from Francis Ngannou.

UFC Fight Night: Betting Analysis

Now the promotion gets more time in the spotlight with Wednesday’s UFC Jacksonville show that’ll get cranking at 6:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. The headliner features fourth-ranked light-heavyweight contender Anthony ‘Lionheart’ Smith vs. eighth-ranked Glover Teixeira.

Smith (33-14 MMA, 8-3 UFC) is coming back from surgery after he sustained a broken hand in last summer’s fourth-round submission win over Alexander ‘The Mauler’ Gustafsson as a road underdog in last summer’s UFC Stockholm main event. Teixeira is looking for his fourth straight win at the age of 40 after going 3-0 in 2019.

In the co-main event, Ovince Saint Preux will make his heavyweight debut against ‘Big’ Ben Rothwell.

Twenty-one of 22 fighters made weight at Tuesday morning’s weigh-ins. Karl Roberson was the exception (187.5), as he missed weight by 1.5 pounds for his middleweight clash against Marvin Vettori.

Let’s get to some picks…

UFC Fight Night: Best Bets

Ovince Saint Preux vs. Ben Rothwell

-- I like Rothwell as a +124 underdog vs. OSP for three units in my favorite play on the card. Saint Preux weighed in at 240.5 pounds, while Rothwell came in at 265. The 38-year-old Rothwell (37-12 MMA, 7-6 UFC) is off a second-round knockout win over Stefan Struve. He packs as much power as anyone on the division not named Ngannou, displaying it in KO wins over the likes of Struve, Alistair Overeem, Brandon Vera andBrendan Schaub.

The Wisconsin native also has six career submission wins, including a pair in the Octagon against Matt Mitrione and former heavyweight champ Josh Barnett. OSP has been knocked out in a pair of LHW scraps and been submitted three times. It says here that he’s never felt hands as powerful as Rothwell’s, and we’ll also go with one-half unit on ‘under’ 2.5 rounds at a -134 price.

Thiago Moises vs. Michael Johnson

-- I like Michael ‘The Menace’ Johnson (19-15 MMA, 11-11 UFC) in a pick ‘em showdown (-108 either way at FanDuel) vs. Thiago Moses for 1.5 units. Johnson’s resume on paper shows back-to-back losses and a 3-7 slump in his last 10 fights. However, the reality is that he’s been in good form lately. In 2018, he posted back-to-back victories over Andre Fili and Artem Lobov.

Less than a minute away from a three-fight winning streak in what had been a dominant performance for 14 minutes, Johnson got caught by powerful featherweight Josh Emmett with a one-punch KO when he was 46 seconds away from a lopsided decision win. Then he dropped a majority decision to Stevie Ray this past October. Johnson has elite wins on his resume like the ones he captured over Edson Barboza, Dustin Poirier and Tony Ferguson. Moses is getting entirely too much respect from the oddsmakers in this spot.

Chase Sherman vs Ike Villanueva

-- Let’s go with two units on ‘under’ 1.5 rounds for a +114 return (FanDuel) in the card’s opener between Chase Sherman and Isaac Villanueva. Sherman was cut in 2018 after going 2-5 in seven Octagon appearances, but he got the call back up after posting three consecutive wins by first-round KO under the Island Fights regional promotion in the Pensacola area. Fourteen of the ‘Vanilla Gorilla’s 20 career fights have ended in the opening stanza. Villaneuva, who is making his UFC debut here, has won four consecutive bouts by first-round finish.

--The straight price (-180 at FanDuel) on Smith is too expensive for me, but I do think he gets it done and encourage bettors to put him in whatever parlay you might’ve working.

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