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UFC 259 Blachowicz vs. Adesanya Betting Odds

 

Mar. 3, 2021
by Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Expert
VegasInsider.com

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya Odds Analysis

UFC megastar, Israel Adesanya, moves up in weight to face reigning light heavyweight champ Jan Blachowicz in the main event of UFC 259. Should Adesanya win, he will be the fifth fighter in UFC history to hold two belts simultaneously, in different weight classes.

The main event is far from being the only great fight on this card, though, as the co-main event sees G.W.O.A.T Amanda Nunes defend her featherweight title against rising contender Megan Anderson. In recent years, Nunes’ career has hit an upwards trajectory to say the least, her current state of domination perhaps only being rivalled by Jon Jones when he held the 205 lb title.

UFC 259 Betting Resources

Other UFC 259 fights to look out for include champion Petr Yan defending his newly attained bantamweight title against no.1 ranked contender Aljamain Sterling, and Thiago Santos vs. rising prospect Aleksandar Rakic.

Other noteworthy announced bouts feature:

  • Dominick Cruz vs. Casey Kenney
  • Islam Makachev vs. Drew Dober
  • Joseph Benavidez vs. Askar Askarov

To say that the UFC 259 card is stacked is to put it mildly, and there are plenty of interesting betting lines for the bouts.

Here, we go over some of the most intriguing ones, trying to find some value.

Blachowicz vs. Adesanya - Odds Comparison

Blachowicz vs. Adesanya - Money Line Odds (3/6/21)
Fighters
Jan Blachowicz +220 +220 +220 +215
Israel Adesanya -275 -270 -278 -280

Odds Subject to Change - Updated 3.3.21

UFC 259: Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya Odds Movement

Opening betting odds saw Israel Adesanya as the clear favorite at -275 (Bet $100 to win $36), with an implied win probability of 75%.

Since then, bettors have been disagreeing as to what side to has the value, and as a result, the odds are now back to opening lines.

At +210 (Bet $100 to win $210), Jan Blachowicz has an implied win probability of 32.26%.

Odds: Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya
Fighter Open 1/14 1/18 2/18 3/2
Jan Blachowicz +220 +240 +225 +220 +210
Israel Adesanya -275 -303 -278 -275 -250

Total Number of Rounds - Over/Under

Over 1.5 -250
Under 1.5 +195

Over 2.5 -130
Under 2.5 +110

Over 3.5 +115
Under 3.5 -140

Over 4.5 +155
Under 4.5 -190

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya Props

Will the Fight go the Distance?

Yes +170
No -200

Method of Victory (7-Way)

I. Adesanya by KO/TKO or DQ +115
I. Adesanya by Submission +1900
I. Adesanya by Decision/Technical Decision +250

Tie/Technical Tie +5000

J. Blachowicz by KO/TKO or DQ +500
J. Blachowicz by Submission +650
J. Blachowicz by Decision/Technical Decision +900

Round and Method of Victory

I. Adesanya by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 +425
I. Adesanya by Submission in Round 1 +5000
I. Adesanya by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 +750
I. Adesanya by Submission in Round 2 +5000
I. Adesanya by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 +1000
I. Adesanya by Submission in Round 3 +5000
I. Adesanya by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 4 +1700
I. Adesanya by Submission in Round 4 +5000
I. Adesanya by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 5 +2200
I. Adesanya by Submission in Round 5 +5000

Tie/Technical Tie +5000

J. Blachowicz by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 +1800
J. Blachowicz by Submission in Round 1 +2500
J. Blachowicz by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 +2200
J. Blachowicz by Submission in Round 2 +3000
J. Blachowicz by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 +2800
J. Blachowicz by Submission in Round 3 +3500
J. Blachowicz by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 4 +4000
J. Blachowicz by Submission in Round 4 +5000
J. Blachowicz by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 5 +5000
J. Blachowicz by Submission in Round 5 +5000

Israel Adesanya (NGR) by Decision/Technical Decision +250
Jan Blachowicz (POL) by Decision/Technical Decision +900

Round Betting

I. Adesanya in round 1 +350
I. Adesanya in round 2 +650
I. Adesanya in round 3 +900
I. Adesanya in round 4 +1500
I. Adesanya in round 5 +2000
I. Adesanya On points +250

J. Blachowicz in round 1 +900
J. Blachowicz in round 2 +1300
J. Blachowicz in round 3 +1500
J. Blachowicz in round 4 +1800
J. Blachowicz in round 5 +3500
J. Blachowicz On points 900

Tie/Technical Tie +5000

When will the fight finish?

Round 1 +250
Round 2 +450
Round 3 +600
Round 4 +1000
Round 5 +1400

Fight to go the distance +170

How will the Fight Finish?

KO/TKO/DQ -145
Submission +600
Decision +170

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya Odds Analysis

Current UFC betting lines for Israel Adesanya vs. Jan Blachowicz sees ‘Izzy’ as the definitive favorite at odds -278, while Blachowicz is the underdog at +225.

It doesn’t surprise me that Adesanya is the favorite, as he is the A-side in this fight, being unbeaten and all. However, I’m surprised the public hasn’t unloaded on the Adesanya side yet, and I’ll tell you why: Adesanya is the superior striker in this fight by far, and as this fight predominantly will take place on the feet, I don’t see any indication that Blachowicz wins this fight.

With Adesanya we are dealing with a specialist in one particular field of MMA: striking. Unless Blachowicz plans to go all Khabib Nurmagomedov on Adesanya, which would be very out of character for the Pole, I see Adesanya winning this fight quite easily.

Despite moving up in weight for this fight, reach and height are still in favor of ‘The Last Stylebender’, meaning that he will have his usual advantages when he fights Jan.

After his last win over Costa, I’m surprised the betting line for Israel hasn’t gone up more. It appears that there is some recency bias affecting this line, as Blachowicz is coming off a KO-win over Dominick Reyes in his last bout.

At the same time, I believe Adesanya’s lacklustre fight (in terms of action) is still in people’s heads, which might be why we are getting this value on Adesanya.

The value is all on Adesanya in this fight, and he picks Blachowicz apart on the feet before 8/10 times.


Israel Adesanya owns an 18-0 career cecord, which includes a 9-0 mark under the UFC promotion. (Getty)

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya Breakdown & Pick

Superfights in the UFC between two champions are always fun, and I can’t wait to watch how this bout plays out.

That said, let’s try and predict a winner.

Adesanya is a tall and rangy fighter who uses his 80’’ reach to its full effect in the form of a solid jab and some nice leg kicks. Usually, he has a comfortable 5 or 6-inch reach advantage, allowing him to play the distance game and pick his opponents apart.

In this fight, he has an unusually small reach advantage of only 2’’, which statistically is close to insignificant. However, a reach advantage is still a reach advantage, and given that Adesanya is also taller than Blachowicz, it adds to his overall size advantage.

Looking more closely at the styles at play here, it’s clear that Blachowicz will want to make this fight dirty as soon as possible. If he allows Adesanya to walk out of the first few rounds unscathed, it’ll tough to see Blachowicz winning the championship rounds.

This read is simply based on the fact that Adesanya usually dominates late in fights. If Jan wants the win, he probably needs an early finish. Once the fatigue starts setting in, Adesanya ends up the fresher fighter 9/10 times.

Jan needs to use the clinch and maybe go for some takedowns if he wants to get Adesanya in a compromising position, but since Adesanya’s movement is so superior, I find it hard to believe that Jan will be able to get a hold of Israel.

Overall I see Adesanya as the better fighter. Even if this fight goes to the ground I think Adesanya will have some aces up his sleeve. After being rocked against Gastelum, he still went for submission on the ground.

My early lean has me picking Israel Adesanya to win via fourth-round TKO.

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya Betting Insights

  • Israel Adesanya will be 7 years younger than Jan Blachowicz when they fight. Fighters with an 8-year age advantage went 43-28 in 2020, winning 60% of the time.
  • Jan Blachowicz surrenders 2-inches in reach to Adesanya, while also having a more narrow strike differential. Fighters with these disadvantages lost 58% of the time in 2020.
  • Champions went 13-0-1 in 2020, amassing an accumulative unbeaten record. It will be Blachowicz’ belt on the line at UFC 259, making him the defending champion. Can he stop the Adesanya train and extend the UFC champions’ unbeaten streak to 16-0?



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