Last Updated Jan 06, 2022, 2:59 PM
UFC 270: NGANNOU VS. GANE BETTING ODDS
UFC 270 HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
NGANNOU VS. GANE ODDS ANALYSIS
The UFC 2022 calendar is kicking off with a stacked pay-per-view event filled with exciting matchups from top to bottom.
The event is scheduled to take place on January 22, 2022, at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California.
To serve as the main event headliner, a UFC Heavyweight Championship title unification bout is lined up between current champion, Francis Ngannou, and interim champion, Ciryl Gane.
In the co-main event we have a rubber match with a title on the line to look forward to, as current champion Brandon Moreno takes on Deiveson Figueiredo for the UFC Flyweight Championship. Moreno and Figueiredo first met at UFC 256 on December 12, 2020 in a bout that was scored as a majority draw. The rematch took place at UFC 263 on June 12, 2021 where Moreno submitted Figueiredo to win the title.
Other notable matchups scheduled for UFC 270 include a heavyweight bout between Greg Hardy and Alexey Oleynik along with a featherweight bout between unbeaten prospects Movsar Evloev and Ilia Topuria.
Ngannou is priced as a favorite for the 12th time in his 14 UFC appearances. Throughout his UFC career, Ngannou has closed at average odds of -257. He is 11-2 in the UFC meaning he has a win probability higher than what his odds imply. If you’ve backed him in every UFC outing you’ve made a profit.
UFC 269: NGANNOU VS. GANE ODDS COMPARISON
Ciryl Gane is priced at even money odds for the first time in his career. He has never been priced above -147 up until now. His average closing odds in the UFC is -347. Gane is unbeaten as a mixed martial artist, so backing him throughout his UFC tenure would have netted you a nice little profit.
NGANNOU VS. GANE: WHO TO BACK?
Gane is the unbeaten prospect in this matchup, whereas Ngannou is the incumbent, being the defending champion.
Rarely do you get an unbeaten prospect on a seven-fight win streak at even money odds in the UFC.
When you dive into the metrics, Gane is one up on Ngannou as well. Striking-wise he holds a far wider striking differential than the champion, as well as being better defensively and in terms of accuracy. On the ground the challenger appears superior too, with more frequent takedowns attempts and a perfect 100% takedown defense.
Age-wise Gane is the younger fighter with less miles on the clock. Ngannou is 35-years of age, which isn’t old for a heavyweight, given the average age of the division is 36. That said, historical statistics tell us that age matters in MMA, and the younger fighter generally gets the better of older opponents with winning rates varying based on the specific age gap.
Strictly looking at age, fighters that are four years younger than their opponents win around 60% of the time in MMA.
You could counter this with the fact that champions defend their titles around 65% of the time, however that win rate does not hold up when filtering for champions that are both older and have lesser striking differentials than the challengers.
Practically speaking, it is unheard of for a heavyweight to move like Gane does. With a striking differential of 2.97, Gane lands three for every one his opponents land on him. The challenger also lands more than twice as much as he absorbs. Compare that to Ngannou’s striking differential of 0.50. Ngannou only lands 2.54 for every 2.04 punches he absorbs.
In the top ten of the heavyweight division, only two fighters can rival Gane’s striking differential. The first is Chris Daukaus, however his short average fight time skews his data greatly. Tom Aspinall is another candidate, yet his four fights in the UFC means he has yet to test his skills against top competition. When accounting for average fighting time and number of UFC fights, no one in the heavyweight division comes close to Ciryl Gane’s striking level.
Let me also address the recency bias affecting this betting line. The average bettor still remembers being blown away by Ngannou’s destruction of Stipe Miocic not too long ago, however don’t discredit Ciryl Gane’s domination, although it is not as flashy in style as Ngannou’s. Gane can be a decisionator from time to time, but he always gets the job done.
Gane has yet to even lose a round in the octagon, meaning his run under the UFC mantle is every bit as dominant as Khabib Nurmagomedov, who many hold as the greatest of all time. Statistically such a dominant run is very rare over seven fights in the UFC, fighting the top of the division.
Betting-wise I don’t see any factors deterring me from a bet on Gane. The leaked sparring footage also tells me that Ngannou is a step behind when it comes to the fundamentals. Not surprising when you remember Ngannou started his MMA career very late.
If I had to bet, I’d back Ciryl Gane to get his hand raised at UFC 270. If we’re looking at the method of victory, I think the ‘Gane by Decision’ prop is the way to go.
UFC 270 CARD & BETTING ODDS
As of Jan. 5, 2022, the UFC 270 card is expected to have 14 fights on tap for the Jan. 22 card in Anaheim.
- Heavyweight Championship: Francis Ngannou -115 vs. Ciryl Gane -105
- Flyweight Championship: Brandon Moreno -175 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +145
- Featherweight Bout: Movsar Evloev +110 vs. Ilia Topuria -130
- Heavyweight Bout: Greg Hardy +130 vs. Alexey Oleynik -160
- Women's Flyweight Bout: Viviane Araújo -175 vs. Alexa Grasso +145
- Middleweight Bout: Rodolfo Vieira vs. Wellington Turman
- Bantamweight Bout: Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry
- Bantamweight Bout: Tony Gravely -250 vs. Saimon Oliveira +190
- Welterweight Bout: Warlley Alves vs. Jack Della
EARLY PRELIMINARY CARD
- Women's Flyweight Bout: Poliana Botelho vs. Ji Yeon Kim
- Lightweight Bout: Matt Frevola -200 vs. Genaro Valdez +165
- Welterweight Bout: Trevin Giles +130 vs. Michael Morales -155
- Women's Flyweight Bout: Kay Hansen vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
Bouts and Odds Subject to Change - per BetMGM