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UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane Betting Odds

 

Jan. 19, 2022
by Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Expert
VegasInsider.com

The UFC 2022 calendar is kicking off with a stacked pay-per-view event filled with exciting matchups from top to bottom.

The event is scheduled to take place on January 22, 2022, at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California.

To serve as the main event headliner, a UFC Heavyweight Championship title unification bout is lined up between current champion, Francis Ngannou, and interim champion, Ciryl Gane.

In the co-main event we have a rubber match with a title on the line to look forward to, as current champion Brandon Moreno takes on Deiveson Figueiredo for the UFC Flyweight Championship. Moreno and Figueiredo first met at UFC 256 on December 12, 2020 in a bout that was scored as a majority draw. The rematch took place at UFC 263 on June 12, 2021 where Moreno submitted Figueiredo to win the title.

Other notable matchups scheduled for UFC 270 include a heavyweight bout between Greg Hardy and Sergey Spivak alongside a bantamweight bout between striking-wiz Said Nurmagomedov wrestling Cody Stamann.

Heavyweight Championship
Francis Ngannou VS Ciryl Gane

Former teammates face off in the main event of UFC 270. This fight is important as it will determine who the king of the heavyweight division will be going forward. This fight also marks the first time in years that a UFC heavyweight title fight takes place without either Daniel Cormier or Stipe Miocic competing for the championship.

UFC 270: NGANNOU VS GANE ODDS

Odds: Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane (1/22/22)
Fighter 10/24/21 1/8/22 1/8/22 1/12/22 1/15/22 1/16/22 1/18/22 1/19/22
Francis Ngannou -115 -110 -105 +105 +110 +120 +120 +125
Ciryl Gane -105 -110 -115 -125 -130 -145 -145 -150

Ngannou opened as a small favorite at -105, however the money has been coming in on the challenger ever since resulting in the champion now being priced at plus money. Ngannou has closed as the favorite for the 12 times in 14 octagon appearances.

Throughout his UFC career, Ngannou has closed at average odds of -257. He is 11-2 in the UFC octagon.

Ciryl Gane is priced around even money odds for the first time in his career. He has never been priced above -147 up until now. His average closing odds in the UFC is -347. Gane is unbeaten as a mixed martial artist, so backing him throughout his UFC tenure would have netted you a nice little profit.

UFC 270: NGANNOU VS GANE ODDS COMPARISON

Ngannou vs. Gane - Money Line Odds (1/22/22)
Fighters
Francis Ngannou +125 +125 +120
Ciryl Gane -150 -162 -150

Most sportsbooks opened with Ngannou as the favorite and have shifted the odds in favor of the challenger since. It seems bettors favor the challenger to get the W.

Ciryl Gane is priced at even money odds for the first time in his career. He has never been priced above -147 up until now. His average closing odds in the UFC is -347. Gane is unbeaten as a mixed martial artist, so backing him throughout his UFC tenure would have netted you a nice little profit.

UFC 270: NGANNOU VS GANE IN DEPTH


Francis Ngannou is interviewed after knocking out Jairzinho Roenstruik at UFC 249. (AP)

Francis Ngannou

Hard-hitting knockout machine, Francis Ngannou, finally got his hands on the heavyweight title when he defeated former rival Stipe Miocic at UFC 260 via knockout in round 2. The two formerly collided in a title-bout at UFC 220, however Stipe would walk away victorious on all three judges’ scorecards.

Ngannou’s claim to fame is his one-punch fight-ending ability. In the octagon, his average fight time is five minutes and 38 seconds. What’s even more impressive is the fact that Francis’ last five bouts have lasted an average of one minute and 42 seconds with him winning them all by knockout.

The heavyweight champion received criticism from fans of the sport for his lacking cardio after losing back to back fights via unanimous decision in 2018. However it appears Ngannou has made some adjustments to better his MMA game from the likes of his most recent performance. The true extent of those adjustments will be laid bare inside the octagon at UFC 270 though.

In spite of everything, Ngannou’s punching power means he has an eraser to change the outcome of any fight at any given moment. That’s what makes him so interesting and lethal.

Ngannou's UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)

UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou 2
(WIN) Francis Ngannou (-133) vs. Stipe Miocic (+122)

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
(WIN) Francis Ngannou (-225) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+215)

UFC on ESPN 3: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos
(WIN) Francis Ngannou (-205) vs. Junior Dos Santos (+187)

UFC on ESPN 1: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
(WIN) Francis Ngannou (+175) vs. Cain Velasquez (-195)

UFC Fight Night 141: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2
(WIN) Francis Ngannou (+205) vs. Curtis Blaydes (-240)

A $100 stake on Ngannou in all of his last five outings would have netted you $547 (109.4% ROI).


Ciryl Gane is crowned interim heavyweight champ after finishing Derrick Lewis at UFC 265. (AP)

Ciryl Gane

Fighting out of Paris, France, Cyril Gane burst onto the big scene for most fans in his most recent win over fan-favorite and no. 3 ranked contender, Derrick Lewis, a fight for which Gane won POTN.

Gane is currently unbeaten as a professional with a record of 10-0, four wins coming by KO, three by submission, and three via decision.

‘Bon Gamin’ is an impeccable striker with the sharpest technique in the division. For a heavyweight, his movement is truly unmatched by his peers. To find a rival for Gane’s footwork and movement you must look to boxing where legends like Tyson Fury reside.

Gane’s fighting style is cautious and measured. Rarely do we see the 31-year old overextend or overcommit to a shot. Domination-wise, Gane is among the best to ever do it. Having never lost a round is almost unheard of in the octagon, granted he still has some bouts to get through to solidify his name in the history books. However, his run so far has put him on track for GOAT status, and if he bests his former training partner at UFC 270 he might end up being a new cash cow for the promotion. This is mainly due to his roots in France which remains a relatively untouched market when it comes to MMA.

Gane's UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
(WIN) Ciryl Gane (-300) vs. Derrick Lewis (+275)

UFC Fight Night 190: Gane vs. Volkov
(WIN) Ciryl Gane (-147) vs. Alexander Volkov (+140)

UFC Fight Night 186: Gane vs. Rozenstruik
(WIN) Ciryl Gane (-225) vs. Jairzinho Rozensturik (+200)

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
(WIN) Ciryl Gane (-400) vs. Junior Dos Santos (+350)

UFC on ESPN+ 23: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie
(WIN) Ciryl Gane (-625) vs. Tanner Boser (+470)

A $100 stake on Gane in all of his last five outings would have netted you $186 (37.2% ROI).

Striking: Ngannou vs. Gane (22/1/22)
Fighter Francis Ngannou Ciryl Gane
Strikes Landed per Min. 2.54 5.37
Striking Accuracy 41% 57%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. 2.04 2.40
Striking Defense 45% 62%
Striking Differential 0.50 2.97

UFC 270: NGANNOU VS GANE PREDICTION

Gane is the unbeaten prospect in this matchup, whereas Ngannou is the incumbent, being the defending champion.

Rarely do you get an unbeaten prospect on a seven-fight win streak at even money odds in the UFC.

When you dive into the metrics, Gane is one up on Ngannou as well. Striking-wise he holds a far wider striking differential than the champion, as well as being better defensively and in terms of accuracy. On the ground the challenger appears superior too, with more frequent takedowns attempts and a perfect 100% takedown defense.

Age-wise Gane is the younger fighter with less miles on the clock. Ngannou is 35-years of age, which isn’t old for a heavyweight, given the average age of the division is 36. That said, historical statistics tell us that age matters in MMA, and the younger fighter generally gets the better of older opponents with winning rates varying based on the specific age gap.

Strictly looking at age, fighters that are four years younger than their opponents win around 60% of the time in MMA.

You could counter this with the fact that champions defend their titles around 65% of the time, however that win rate does not hold up when filtering for champions that are both older and have lesser striking differentials than the challengers.

Practically speaking, it is unheard of for a heavyweight to move like Gane does. With a striking differential of 2.97, Gane lands three for every one his opponents land on him. The challenger also lands more than twice as much as he absorbs. Compare that to Ngannou’s striking differential of 0.50. Ngannou only lands 2.54 for every 2.04 punches he absorbs.

In the top ten of the heavyweight division, only two fighters can rival Gane’s striking differential. The first is Chris Daukaus, however his short average fight time skews his data greatly. Tom Aspinall is another candidate, yet his four fights in the UFC means he has yet to test his skills against top competition. When accounting for average fighting time and number of UFC fights, no one in the heavyweight division comes close to Ciryl Gane’s striking level.

Let me also address the recency bias affecting this betting line. The average bettor still remembers being blown away by Ngannou’s destruction of Stipe Miocic not too long ago, however don’t discredit Ciryl Gane’s domination, although it is not as flashy in style as Ngannou’s. Gane can be a decisionator from time to time, but he always gets the job done.

Gane has yet to even lose a round in the octagon, meaning his run under the UFC mantle is every bit as dominant as Khabib Nurmagomedov, who many hold as the greatest of all time. Statistically such a dominant run is very rare over seven fights in the UFC, fighting the top of the division.

Betting-wise I don’t see any factors deterring me from a bet on Gane. The leaked sparring footage also tells me that Ngannou is a step behind when it comes to the fundamentals. Not surprising when you remember Ngannou started his MMA career very late.

If I had to bet, I’d back Ciryl Gane to get his hand raised at UFC 270. If we’re looking at the method of victory, I think the ‘Gane by Decision’ prop is the way to go.

UFC 270: NGANNOU VS GANE TALE OF THE TAPE

Tale of the tape: Ngannou vs. Gane (22/1/22)
Fighter Francis Ngannou Ciryl Gane
Record 16-3 10-0
Height 6' 4'' 6' 4''
Weight (lbs) 250 245
Reach (in) 83 81
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 35 31


Flyweight Championship
Brandon Moreno VS Deiveson Figueiredo 3

The rubber match between current UFC flyweight champion, Brandon Moreno, and longtime rival Deiveson Figueiredo is scheduled for the co-headliner slot at UFC 270. The stakes are high for both men here, however Figueiredo is the one with more to lose. A win for Moreno solidifies his place as the rightful champion while ruling out any suspicions of his last fight being a fluke. A win for Figueiredo is essential as a loss would leave the former champion winless in three consecutive bouts.

UFC 270: MORENO VS FIGUEIREDO 3 ODDS

Odds: Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo 3 (1/22/22)
Fighter 9/26/21 10/24/22 1/19/22
Brandon Moreno -185 -175 -175
Deiveson Figueiredo +150 +140 +140

Moreno opened as the favorite last year with the line slighty shifting in favor of Figueiredo since then. Bookies have not budged on betting action from the public and seem adamant that Moreno remains the favorite.

UFC 270: MORENO VS FIGUEIREDO 3 ODDS COMPARISON

Moreno vs. Figueiredo 3 - Money Line Odds (1/22/22)
Fighters
Brandon Moreno -175 -167 -180
Deiveson Figueiredo +145 +138 +142

Most books have Moreno as a moderate favorite.

UFC 270: MORENO VS FIGUEIREDO 3 IN DEPTH

Brandon Moreno

Mexico's first UFC champion didn't have an easy start to his professional MMA career. Originally a contestant on The Ultimate Fighter, 'The Assassin Baby' certainly took the long road to the title, as the 28-year old lost his one and only fight on the show before being booted from the UFC altogether.

Moreno didn't settle on the regional scene however and was quickly brought back onto the big scene where he immediately started to showcase his developing skillset with top-tier performances over great competition.

Since returning to the UFC in 2019 Moreno has yet to lose in the octagon. The Mexican is 4-0-2 with wins over highly-touted prospects such as Kai Kara-France and Brandon Royval.

Mexico's first champion possesses an incredibly well-rounded skillset making him a nightmare to deal with for opponents. Most recently, we saw his ground game utilised to its full effect as he dominated and submitted rival Deiveson Figueiredo to capture the 125-pound belt.

Moreno is installed as a moderate favorite across multiple sportsbooks for his trilogy bout with Figueiredo at UFC 270.

Moreno's UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
(WIN) Brandon Moreno (+170) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (-200)

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
(DRAW) Brandon Moreno (+250) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (-333)

UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
(WIN) Brandon Moreno (-164) vs. Brandon Royval (+137)

UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
(WIN) Brandon Moreno (+137) vs. Kai Kara-France (-164)

UFC on ESPN +17: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
(DRAW) Brandon Moreno (+140) vs. Askar Askarov (-172)

A $100 stake on Moreno in all of his last five outings would have netted you $367 (73.4% ROI).

Deiveson Figueiredo

The last person to bear the 125-pound crown aside from the current champ is Deiveson Figueiredo.

Despite his last bout ending up a losing effort, Figueiredo is still one of the top dogs at flyweight with his unconditional finishing ability. The former champion is a hard-hitter for the weight class and has produced highlight-reel finishes in the past. His biggest disadvantage is the draining weight cut he must make to compete at 125-pounds, and we will have to see whether his recent more to Fight Ready, the home of former champ Henry Cejudo, has made the right improvements to retain his title.

Figueiredo UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
(LOSS) Deiveson Figueiredo (-200) vs. Brandon Moreno (+170)

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
(DRAW) Deiveson Figueiredo (-333) vs. Brandon Moreno (+250)

UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
(WIN) Deiveson Figueiredo (-278) vs. Alex Perez (+225)

UFC on ESPN+ 30: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
(WIN) Deiveson Figueiredo (-250) vs. Joseph Benavidez (+200)

UFC on ESPN +27: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo
(WIN) Deiveson Figueiredo (+130) vs. Joseph Benavidez (-161)

A $100 stake on Figueiredo in all of his last five outings would have netted you $106 (21.2% ROI).

Striking: Moreno vs. Figueiredo (22/1/22)
Fighter Brandon Moreno Deiveson Figueiredo
Strikes Landed per Min. 3.44 3.24
Striking Accuracy 39% 56%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. 3.29 3.40
Striking Defense 58% 49%
Striking Differential 0.15 -0.16

UFC 270: MORENO VS FIGUEIREDO 3 PREDICTION

The trilogy between Moreno and Figueiredo is upon us. Before we dive into the prediction for the third bout, let me quickly recap what I believe went down in the two preceding bouts.

Moreno vs Figueiredo 1 Recap

This is a great fight to rewatch. Both fighters have their moments however Figueiredo is mainly in the driver's seat from the get-go. As a result, the two first rounds are easily Figueiredo's in my book.

Round three is where the momentum starts to shift. A low blow results in a point deduction for Deiveson. Moreno does just enough work to not get 10-8'ed. From here on out the cardio works in favor of Moreno, the fresher fighter, and he starts unloading on a fatigued champion with fast combinations.

The fight is scored a draw.

Moreno vs Figueiredo 2 Recap

Watching this fight with the first fight in memory shows a clear change in Moreno's confidence. In the first fight Brandon was clearly very respectful of Figueiredo's power and had trouble getting on the inside with combinations.

In this fight Moreno immediately meets Deiveson in the middle of the octagon and starts controlling the fight. He switches up the targets to the body and legs while never letting Figueiredo settle.

Moreno drops Deiveson twice before finishing him in the second round via submission.

With the two preceding bouts in mind, what can we say about the third fight?

I think there are two main things to keep in mind here. First of all, Moreno has clearly been the one making adjustments from the first encounter to the second. And two, Figueiredo's weight cut means we never know what version of him will show up on fight night.

Reports estimate the former champ has to cut upwards of 30-pounds to make weight, which is insane if true. Based on his last performance, I truly believe he is unfit to compete at 125-pounds. I'm getting Darren Till flashbacks when Deiveson steps on the scale, both men have competed in weight classes for which they are far too big. We also know the effect weight cutting has on durability and Figueiredo looked uncharacteristically chinny in his most recent bout.

The confidence boost Moreno gained from the first fight was clear as day. In the rematch he came out and took the octagon against Figueiredo, something opponents rarely do due to his power. You can only imagine that confidence is even higher for Moreno seeing as he dismantled his rival fairly easily in the last bout. There is also an age factor at play here, as Deiveson turned 34 back in December. Moreno is the younger man by six years - we know such an age advantage can be extremely significant for various reasons. Basically your career trajectory is more likely to be trending upwards if you're under 30, whereas the opposite is the case if you are over 30.

Personally I believe the score was settled in the last fight where Moreno ran right through Figueiredo and captured the title. All the disadvantages on Figueiredo's side make this an uphill battle for the 34-year old and he has a younger and possibly hungrier fighter in front of him on Saturday.

All arrows seem to point in the same direction for me. I see Moreno running away with the trilogy and silencing all doubters.

UFC 270: MORENO VS FIGUEIREDO TALE OF THE TAPE

Tale of the tape: Moreno vs. Figueiredo (22/1/22)
Fighter Brandon Moreno Deiveson Figueiredo
Record 19-5-2 20-2-1
Height 5' 7'' 5' 5''
Weight (lbs) 125 125
Reach (in) 70 68
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 28 34


UFC 270 ODDS & BOUTS

The UFC 270 card is expected to have 13 fights on tap for the Jan. 22 card in Anaheim, California.

Main Card

  • Heavyweight Championship: Francis Ngannou (c) +125 vs. Ciryl Gane (ic) -150
  • Flyweight Championship: Brandon Moreno (c) -175 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +145
  • Welterweight Bout: Michel Pereira -300 vs. Andre Fialho +250
  • Bantamweight Bout: Cody Stamann +165 vs. Said Nurmagomedov -200

Preliminary Card

  • Middleweight Bout: Rodolfo Vieira -250 vs. Wellington Turman +200
  • Bantamweight Bout: Raoni Barcelos -450 vs. Victor Henry +333
  • Featherweight Bout: Ilia Topuria -600 vs. Charles Jourdain +425
  • Welterweight Bout: Jack Della Maddalena -350 vs. Pete Rodriguez +260

Early Preliminary Card

  • Bantamweight Bout: Tony Gravely -275 vs. Saimon Oliveira +210
  • Welterweight Bout: Trevin Giles +115 vs. Michael Morales -140
  • Women's Strawweight Bout: Silvana Gomez Juarez +125 vs. Vanessa Demopoulos -150
  • Lightweight Bout: Matt Frevola -200 vs. Genaro Valdez +165
  • Women's Flyweight Bout: Kay Hansen -275 vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius +210

Bouts and Odds Subject to Change - per BetMGM


  
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