College Basketball Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Sunday, Feb. 18

Losing Ty Berry is devastating for Northwestern as the Wildcats look at risk to slide in the Big Ten standings.

On Tuesday the Wildcats led early at Rutgers but fell just short in a difficult 63-60 loss to fall to 8-6 in the conference standings.

Northwestern has won five straight at home in conference play but has now lost five in a row on the road, posting just one narrow road win in Big Ten play all season.

Indiana has faced one of the toughest schedules in the conference and is 4-2 at home in Big Ten play. The Hoosiers have had all week to prepare for this game following a loss at Purdue last weekend, now looking to snap a three-game slide in this series.

Northwestern was just +4 at Rutgers on Thursday and it is hard to make a case that there is a dramatic difference in quality between Rutgers and Indiana as those teams have identical records and the Hoosiers have played the more difficult schedule.

Northwestern's slow pace keeps the defensive scoring numbers down, but the Wildcats have been the fourth worst defensive efficiency team in the Big Ten including featuring the very worst effective field goal against.

In contrast Indiana's defense has the conference's second-best effective field goal rate against this season.

Home court continues to mean a lot in Big Ten play with nearly 71 percent of hosts winning S/U and the absence of Berry, a 43 percent 3-point shooter and a 90 percent free throw shooter that also has a very low turnover rate as a significant ball handler, has not been fully realized in Sunday's price.

Northwestern's league-leading 3-point shooting success will be difficult to match against an Indiana defense that has allowed just over 31 percent beyond the arc through a very difficult Big Ten path and in a close game the Hoosiers have more reliable options for finding higher percentage interior scoring looks.

Despite the contrasting perceptions of the performances of these teams this season, Indiana has been formidable in Bloomington with a 10-3 S/U record and a winning ATS record while Northwestern has just two S/U road wins all season and is a losing ATS team on the road despite being perceived as an overachieving team this season.