Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:47 AM

Michigan State vs. Iowa Predictions, Odds

  • January 14, 2021
  • By David Schwab

The Big Ten’s Michigan State Spartans will be on the road this Thursday night for a conference matchup against the No. 5 Iowa Hawkeyes. Game time from Carver-Hawkeye Arena is slated for 9 p.m. (ET).



Michigan State-Iowa Betting Odds

  • Spread: Iowa -9
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 157.5

Odds Subject to Change

The high-flying Hawkeyes have been opened as nine-point home favorites for Thursday night with the betting line for the total set at 157.5 points.

Michigan State’s one-point loss to Purdue as a six-point home favorite dropped its straight-up Big Ten record to 2-4. The 8-4 Spartans have now failed to cover against the spread in eight of their last nine games. The total has stayed UNDER in three of their last four outings.

Over the past 10 meetings against Iowa, Michigan State has won eight SU and six ATS. This includes a 5-1 SU record in its last six road games against the Hawkeyes.

Iowa moved to 5-1 SU in conference play with Sunday’s 15-point win at home against Minnesota as a 10-point favorite. It has covered ATS in four of its last six games with the total staying UNDER in four of those contests. The Hawkeyes have covered in their last seven home games. They are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Big Ten games.


Betting Analysis – Michigan State Spartans

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 8-4
  • ATS: 3-9
  • SU - Home: 6-2
  • SU - Away: 2-2
  • O/U: 6-6

This season has turned into a major struggle since conference play got underway. Michigan State has faded from the national rankings with the recent loss to Purdue.

The Spartans blew a 17-point lead in that game as their issues with consistency within games continues. The lone bright spots have been forwards’ Aaron Henry and Joey Hauser with a combined 25.7 points per game.

The team is averaging 76 points on the year but this average drops to 67.2 points against Big Ten opponents. Michigan State is shooting 44.8% from the field and 34.7% from three-point range.

Defense has been spotty as well. It has allowed 77 points or more in four of the six conference matchups. The Spartans are pulling down 38.6 rebounds a game led by Hauser’s 8.1 average.

Betting Analysis – Iowa Hawkeyes

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-2
  • ATS: 9-4
  • SU - Home: 9-0
  • SU - Away: 2-2
  • O/U: 9-4

Iowa has been the model of consistency this season and it appears to be getting stronger as things wear on. This is especially true at home in recent games.

Behind All-American center Luka Garza, the Hawkeyes have a strong foundation to build off of. He went off for 33 points in the recent romp over Minnesota. Garza is averaging a team-high 27.6 points and 8.6 rebounds a game.

Three other players are averaging double figures as part of Iowa’s 91.9-point scoring average. Guard Joe Wieskamp is next on the list with 14.3 PPG. Guard CJ Fredrick is hitting 51.1% of his three-point attempts.

The Hawkeyes are shooting 48.8% from the field and 39.3 percent outside the three-point line. They are holding opposing teams to 73.2 points a game.

Inside the Stats – Michigan State Spartans

  • PS/G: 76 (104th)
  • PA/G: 71.3 (209th)
  • Off Rtg: 105.8 (117th)
  • Def Rtg: 99.3 (197th)

Inside the Stats – Iowa Hawkeyes

  • PS/G: 91.9 (3rd)
  • PA/G: 73.2 (242nd)
  • Off Rtg: 124 (2nd)
  • Def Rtg: 98.8 (184th)

Key Players to Watch

  • MSU - Aaron Henry (13.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG)
  • MSU - Joey Hauser (11.8 PPG, 8.1 RPG)
  • IOWA - Luka Garza (27.6 PPG, 8.6 RPG)
  • IOWA - Joe Wieskamp (14.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG)

Michigan State-Iowa Predictions

I keep expecting Michigan State to turn things around and it continues to turn in losses in games it was expected to win. Going against Iowa at home right now makes little sense. The spread appears to be a bit inflated with money pouring in on the Hawkeyes ATS. Yet, this is still the most logical way to bet this game.

I'm also going with the OVER on the current total line. I don't see the Spartans slowing down Garza or Iowa’s other top scorers on the road. It also helps that the Hawkeyes have not been playing the tightest defense this season.

  • Score Prediction: Iowa 88 Michigan State 76
  • Best Bets: Iowa -9
  • Best Bets: OVER

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