Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:46 AM

Creighton vs. Xavier Predictions, Odds, Preview

Feb. 27, 2021
Thom Cunningham
NCAA BK Expert

Big East action on Saturday sees the Creighton Bluejays taking on the Xavier Musketeers. Tip is scheduled for 5 p.m. (ET) and will air from the Cintas Center on FOX.


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Creighton-Xavier Betting Odds

  • Spread: Creighton -5.5
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 147.5

Odds Subject to Change

Creighton enters as the road favorite, given a -5.5-point spread. The Bluejays have failed to cover the spread in 12 of 22 games this season, while Xavier is essentially split with an ATS record of 9-8.

The point total is set at 147.5, which leans OVER based on Xavier's trends. Although Creighton is 11-11 on the O/U this season, Xavier has gone OVER in 11 of 17 games.

Wooden Award candidate Marcus Zegarowski is looking to lead his Creighton Bluejays to a Big East Championship. (AP)

Betting Analysis – Creighton Bluejays

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 17-5
  • ATS: 10-12
  • SU - Home: 10-3
  • SU - Away: 7-2
  • O/U: 11-11

Marcus Zegarowksi is back to his normal self, averaging about 15 points per game with four boards and 4.4 assists. Both he and Denzel Mahoney are the catalysts for this offense, one that averages 79 points per game (ranks 38th in nation).

Creighton has three other players average a double-digit point total, littered with upperclassmen throughout their top five scorers. The Bluejays let it fly from beyond the arc, attempting the 29th-most three-pointers per game with 26.5. They also connect on 9.7 per game, which ranks 24th in the nation.

Creighton is currently on a four-game winning streak, also winning seven of its last eight games. The Bluejays also play well on the road, only dropping two games.

One was to Kansas with the other being an overtime loss to Butler. Xavier is dangerous due to desperation though, so there's an argument to be made that this will be their toughest road game of the season.

Betting Analysis – Xavier Musketeers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 12-5
  • ATS: 9-8
  • SU - Home: 10-2
  • SU - Away: 2-3
  • O/U: 11-6

Like a handful of teams on Saturday, Xavier is desperate for a win. The Musketeers are now on the bubble for March Madness. The good news is that Xavier is still in for now, but they haven't played well since returning from one of the longest COVID-19 breaks any team has seen this season.

Xavier has dropped three of its last four games, which includes two road games to Providence and St. John's. Also, Xavier has only played five games since Jan. 10. This is the last home game of the season for Xavier, so winning this is crucial before heading to Georgetown and Marquette.

Nate Johnson averages 11.4 points per game, but he is listed as questionable. If he can't go, that'll be a huge loss with more burden falling on the shoulders of Paul Scruggs and Zach Freemantle. Keep an eye on the status of Johnson, as him playing is a factor for the spread being covered or not.

Inside the Stats – Creighton Bluejays

  • PS/G: 79 (38th)
  • PA/G: 68.4 (122nd)
  • Off Rtg: 111.5 (31st)
  • Def Rtg: 96.5 (93rd)

Inside the Stats – Xavier Musketeers

  • PS/G: 76.5 (66th)
  • PA/G: 70.4 (194th)
  • Off Rtg: 107.2 (75th)
  • Def Rtg: 98.7 (146th)

Key Players to Watch

  • CRE - Denzel Mahoney (14 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
  • CRE - Marcus Zegarowski (14.9 PPG, 4 RPG, 4.4 APG)
  • XAV - Zach Freemantle (16.9 PPG, 8.9 RPG)
  • XAV - Paul Scruggs (13.9 PPG, 6.2 APG)

Creighton-Xavier Predictions

With the playing status of Johnson unknown, avoid the spread. Creighton should win this game regardless, but Xavier should cover at home with the given +5.5-point spread. The point total has a bit more conviction in it, with the OVER seeing a slightly favorable trend.

Both schools average over 75 points per game, so starting there the point total should exceed 150. Xavier's 11-6 O/U trends are the smartest play on odds for this game, so take that if uneasy on the spread. Creighton should win however, so feel free to live bet for a smaller spread or plus-value.

  • Score Prediction: Creighton 76 Xavier 72
  • Best Bets: OVER
  • Best Bets: Creighton SU


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