Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:46 AM

Wisconsin vs. Iowa Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 12, 2021
David Schwab
NCAA BK Expert

Friday’s Big Ten Tournament’s quarterfinal round wraps the night up with the No. 6 seed Wisconsin Badgers facing the No. 3 seed Iowa Hawkeyes. Game time from Lucas Oil Stadium is slated for 9 p.m. (ET) on Big Ten Network.


Wisconsin-Iowa Betting Odds

  • Spread: Iowa -4.5
  • Total: 146

Odds Subject to Change

The opening spread for this matchup has Iowa set as a 4.5-point favorite. The total line opened at 146 points.

Wisconsin squeezed past Penn State 75-74 in Thursday’s second round action as a 5.5-point favorite. This was just its second straight-up win in its last seven games. The Badgers are 3-6 against the spread in their last nine games. The total has gone OVER in their last four outings.

Two of the five SU losses down the stretch were against Iowa. Wisconsin is 2-5 SU in its last seven games against the Hawkeyes. Yet, they are 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Iowa earned the No. 3 seed for this tournament with a SU 7-1 record in its last eight conference games. It went 5-3 ATS in those eight contests. The total went OVER in the last two outings after staying UNDER in the previous seven games.

The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the Hawkeyes’ last 10 games against Wisconsin. Yet, it has gone OVER in their last six games played in March.

Betting Analysis – Wisconsin Badgers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 17-11
  • ATS: 12-15-1
  • O/U: 14-13-1

Forward Aleem Ford had the hot hand against Penn State with 17 points. The Badgers sealed the one-point win by stopping the Lions on their final possession of the game.

Guard D’Mitrik Trice(13.5 points) and forward Micah Potter (12.6 points) have been Wisconsin’s top two scorers all season long. Potter is shooting 51.5% from the field and Trice is hitting 37.8% of his shots from three-point range.

The Badgers have averaged 70.1 points and 33.5 total rebounds on the year. They are shooting 42.2% from the field and 35.8% from three-point range.

Defensively, they are holding opposing teams to an average of 64.4 points per game. However, they have given up at least 73 points in each of their last four matchups.

Betting Analysis – Iowa Hawkeyes

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 20-7
  • ATS: 15-12
  • O/U: 14-13

All-American center Luka Garza scored 21 points with 16 rebounds in Iowa’s season-ending 77-73 home victory against Wisconsin. The Big Ten Player of the Year is also a strong contender for this season’s Wooden Award as the Most Outstanding Player in the nation.

Garza is averaging 23.8 points and 8.7 rebounds a game. Guards’ Joe Wieskamp (15 points) and Jordan Bohannon (10.5 points) round out a trio of Hawkeyes scoring in double figures. Wieskamp is shooting 48.9% from three-point range and Bohannon is averaging 4.5 assists a game.

Iowa’s season scoring average is 85 points a game with 40.4 total rebounds. It is shooting 47.4% from the field and 39.6% from outside the three-point line.

After giving up an average of 64.7 points during their current three-game winning streak, the Hawkeyes’ points-allowed average this season stands at 72.1.

Inside the Stats – Wisconsin Badgers

  • PS/G: 70.1 (210th)
  • PA/G: 64.4 (38th)
  • Off Rtg: 105.7 (104th)
  • Def Rtg: 97.1 (96th)

Inside the Stats – Iowa Hawkeyes

  • PS/G: 85 (3rd)
  • PA/G: 72.1 (232nd)
  • Off Rtg: 119.2 (3rd)
  • Def Rtg: 101.1 (193rd)

Key Players to Watch

  • WIS - D'Mitrik Trice (13.5 PPG, 4.1 APG)
  • WIS - Micah Potter (12.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG)
  • IOWA - Luka Garza (23.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG)
  • IOWA - Joe Wieskamp (15 PPG, 6.6 RPG)

Wisconsin-Iowa Predictions

Give credit to the Badgers for playing Iowa tough in the regular season finale as 7.5-point underdogs but things will not stay that close on Friday night. Iowa is still in position to secure a No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament, but it needs to play the part over the next three days.

With the current total line set at 146 points, I have this game staying UNDER. There will be a higher premium on defense this time around to keep the total score a bit lower than expected.

  • Score Prediction: Iowa 76 Wisconsin 68
  • Best Bets: Iowa -4.5
  • Best Bets: UNDER


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