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College Basketball

New Mexico State Aggies vs. UConn Huskies Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish
Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read

The New Mexico State Aggies (26-6) of the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) will meet the Connecticut Huskies (23-9) of the Big East Conference in first-round action in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is scheduled for approximately 6:50 p.m. ET at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y., and the game can be viewed on TNT.

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Score Prediction

UConn 69, New Mexico State 66

Best Bet

New Mexico State +6.5 (-108)
Over 131.5 (-110)

NCAA Tournament Expert Picks | NIT Tournament Picks

MARCH MADNESS BETTING RESOURCES

NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES vs. UCONN HUSKIES PREDICTIONS

New Mexico State claimed the WAC Tournament title with an impressive 66-52 victory over Abilene Christian, a team which got hot at the right time to make a run to its tourney final. The Aggies were the class of the league, however, in both the regular season and the tournament. While this team faltered with losses down the stretch to Stephen F. Austin and Chicago State, the overall body of work was good. The Aggies do enough on offense, and play a rather annoying defense which can frustrate the opposition.

UConn has won just two of the past four, exiting in the second game of the Big East Tournament against Villanova. The Huskies did finish the regular season on a 6-1 SU run, so this team was playing good heading into the postseason, even if it has struggled against the number a bit.

NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES vs. UCONN HUSKIES BETTING ODDS

More Odds | Futures Odds

NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES vs. UCONN HUSKIES BETTING RESOURCES

  • Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
  • Matchup: No. 12 vs. No. 5
  • Region: West
  • Venue: KeyBank Arena
  • Location: Buffalo, N.Y.
  • TV-Time: TNT - 6:50 p.m. ET

NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 26-6
  • ATS: 17-12
  • O/U: 15-13-1

The Aggies have covered three games in a row, tying a season best also accomplished Jan. 8-15 during conference play against UTRGV, Tarleton and ACU. New Mexico State's key to winning is its defense, and it has allowed 70 or fewer points in three straight, and seven of the previous eight outings.

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New Mexico State finds itself in the underdog role, and it relished not being favored. NMSU is 4-0 ATS in the past four as an underdog, while going 5-2 ATS in the past seven games in a neutral site as a 'dog. However, they are 2-5 ATS in the previous seven games in the NCAA Tournament when not favored.

As far as the totals are concerned, the UNDER is 25-9 in the past 34 games as an underdog. The UNDER is also 8-2-1 in the previous 11 following an ATS win. And while these trends point to the OVER, as in New Mexico State is 7-1 ATS in the past eight neutral-site games, that's going back a couple of years, and isn't terribly important to these season's team.

UCONN HUSKIES BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 23-9
  • ATS: 13-18-1
  • O/U: 18-14

UConn, the four-time national champions (1999, 2004, 2011 and 2014) is back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2016. It was a brief stay in that encounter, as it was a 9-seed, topping Colorado in an 8-9 game before bowing out to 1-seed Kansas in the Round of 32. It's good to see the Huskies back, however.

Connecticut has had some trouble covering the number lately, going 1-1 ATS in the Big East Tournament, but that cover was rare. They're just 3-10-1 ATS across the past 14 games overall. In the NCAA Tournament, it is 16-5 ATS in the past 21 games, but again, we haven't seen them in the Field of 64 in six seasons, so take that how you want. It's an eye-popping trend, but not terribly important to the 2022 team.

UConn is on a 4-0 UNDER run, too, while hitting the UNDER in seven of the past nine games overall. The Huskies have posted a 6-0 run to the UNDER after a non-cover, and they're 6-2 ATS in the past eight as a favorite.

New Mexico State is 5-1 ATS across the past six games vs. teams with a winning record. (AP)

INSIDE THE STATS - NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES

  • Record: 26-6
  • PS/G: 73.3 (116th)
  • PA/G: 65.0 (53rd)

INSIDE THE STATS - UCONN HUSKIES

  • Record: 24-9
  • PS/G: 77.5 (35th)
  • PA/G: 71.7 (253rd)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

  • NMSU: Teddy Allen - G (19.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.2 SPG, 85.3 FT%)
  • NMSU: Jabari Rice - G (12.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.3 APG, 77.7 FT%)
  • UCONN: R.J. Cole - G (15.8 PPG, 4.1 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.2 SPG)
  • UCONN: Adama Sanogo - F (15.3 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 1.0 APG, 52.2 FG%)

NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES vs. UCONN HUSKIES BETTING CONCLUSION

New Mexico State is an above-average defensive team, and Connecticut is a decent defensive team, too. They're battle-tested, having competed in the Big East, with very few nights off from intense play. This has the potential to be a very exciting 12-5 game, and UConn better be on upset alert, as Teddy Allen and company have the offensive weapons to make life very difficult.

We'll see this game played in Buffalo, a long drive on the New York Thruway from the Nutmeg State of Connecticut, so the crowd factor should be squarely in the favor of the Huskies. New Mexico State isn't likely to travel very well, and that will be a factor. But everyone not in dark blue will cheer for the underdog, because that's just what crowds do at tournament games.

I expect New Mexico State to give Connecticut all it can handle, but in the end the Big East team will find a way to get it done, likely with big man Adama Sanogo making a big difference.

MARCH MADNESS PICK RESOURCES

NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES vs. UCONN HUSKIES BETTING TRENDS

  • New Mexico State is 5-2 ATS in the past seven games overall.
  • New Mexico State is 4-0 ATS in the past four as an underdog.
  • New Mexico State is 5-1 ATS in the past six vs. winning teams.
  • New Mexico State is 4-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site games.
  • New Mexico State is 2-5 ATS in the past seven NCAA Tournament games.
  • UConn is 1-4-1 ATS in the past six games overall.
  • UConn is 1-3-1 ATS in the past five as a favorite.
  • UConn is 3-9-1 ATS in the past 13 vs. winning teams.
  • UConn is 16-5 ATS in the past 21 NCAA Tournament games.
  • The UNDER is 25-9 in the past 34 games as an underdog for New Mexico State.
  • The OVER is 7-1 in the past eight neutral-site games for New Mexico State.
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the past five NCAA Tournament games for New Mexico State.
  • The UNDER is 4-0 in the past four games overall for UConn.
  • The UNDER is 6-2 in the past eight as a favorite for UConn.
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in the past six NCAA Tournament games for UConn.

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Daniel Dobish

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish
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