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College Basketball

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Baylor Bears Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish
Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read

The North Carolina Tar Heels (25-9) of the Atlantic Coast Coast (ACC) will meet the Baylor Bears (27-6) of the Big 12 Conference in second-round action in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is scheduled for Saturday at approximately 12:10 p.m. ET at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas, and the game can be viewed on CBS.

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Score Prediction

Baylor 79 North Carolina 76

Best Bet

North Carolina +5.5 (-109)
Over 148.5 (-115)

NCAA Tournament Expert Picks | NIT Tournament Picks

MARCH MADNESS BETTING RESOURCES

UNC TAR HEELS vs. BAYLOR BEARS PREDICTIONS

North Carolina absolutely annihilated Marquette in the opening-round game, 95-63. The Tar Heels shot 46% (34-of-74) from the field, which isn't that amazing, but they were 37% (13-of-35) from downtown, and had a tremendous plus-13 rebounding margin (46-33). UNC won the game by 32 points despite the fact it also committed one more turnover than the Golden Eagles. Brady Manek exploded for 28 points (10-of-15), while pumping in five triples, while Caleb Love dumped in 23 points, including six threes. Armando Bacot had a double-double, too, posting 17 points and 10 rebounds.

Baylor wasn't tested by Norfolk State in the opener, which was obviously the expected result. The Bears won 85-49 against the Spartans in the 1-16 game, with the defending champs shooting 57% (31-of-54) from the field, as Norfolk State offered very little in the way of resistance. Baylor also hit 41% (11-of-27) from behind the arc, and as expected, used its size advantage to outrebound Norfolk State at a 33-to-24 clip. If there is one glaring issue, which would be a problem in a much closer game, it is the fact Baylor shot just 57% (12-of-21) at the free-throw stripe.

UNC TAR HEELS vs. BAYLOR BEARS BETTING ODDS

More Odds | Futures Odds

UNC TAR HEELS vs. BAYLOR BEARS BETTING RESOURCES

  • Date: Saturday, March 19, 2022
  • Matchup: No. 8 vs. No. 1
  • Region: East
  • Venue: Dickies Arena
  • Location: Fort Worth, Texas
  • TV-Time: CBS - 12:10 p.m. ET

UNC TAR HEELS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 25-9
  • ATS: 17-16-1
  • O/U: 20-13-1

North Carolina easily covered the 4-point spread in the opening game against Marquette, cashing the OVER in the process. In fact, the 95-point outburst was the most for the Tar Heels since dropping 100 on rival NC State back on Jan. 29 at the Dean Dome.

The Heels are 5-1 ATS across the past six outings, but they're an underdog in this one. That's OK, though, as UNC won outright as an 11-point underdog in Coach K's finale at Cameron Indoor Stadium on March 5 in the regular-season finale, while topping Virginia Tech 65-57 as a 4.5-point underdog on Feb. 19. Lately, the Heels have relished being an underdog.

UNC is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight games against teams with a winning overall record, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five games following a straight-up win. However, UNC is 2-5 ATS in the past seven NCAA Tournament games still, and 0-6 ATS in the past six in the Big Dance as a 'dog. The OVER is 15-6-1 in the past 22 games overall, while going 5-2 in the past seven neutral-site games, including Round 1.

BAYLOR BEARS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 27-6
  • ATS: 17-14-2
  • O/U: 17-15-1

Baylor covered the 20.5-point spread against Norfolk State, but you can expect it to face a lot more resistance against the Heels, who are brimming with confidence. The Bears have won six of the past seven games, although they're just 3-4-1 ATS in the past eight games overall.

The Bears head into this game with impressive trends against the number lately, and in recent history, however. Baylor is 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 neutral-site games, while going 6-0 ATS in the past six games in the NCAA Tournament, including 5-0 ATS in the past five as a favorite in the Big Dance.

For totals, the OVER is 5-2 in the past seven games following a straight-up win, and 4-1 in the past five games following a cover. And the OVER is 4-0 in the past four games after a straight-up win by 20 or more points, too.

The defending champs, Baylor, have covered in six straight NCAA Tournament games. (AP)

INSIDE THE STATS - UNC TAR HEELS

  • Record: 25-9
  • PS/G: 78.0 (32nd)
  • PA/G: 71.5 (246th)

INSIDE THE STATS - BAYLOR BEARS

  • Record: 27-6
  • PS/G: 76.8 (45th)
  • PA/G: 63.2 (29th)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

  • UNC: Armando Bacot - F (16.6 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 1.7 BPG, 1.5 APG, 59.5 FG%)
  • UNC: Caleb Love - G (15.7 PPG, 3.7 APG, 3.4 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 87.5 FT%)
  • BAY: James Akinjo - G (13.3 PPG, 5.8 APG, 2.7 RPG, 2.0 SPG, 82.7 FT%)
  • BAY: Adam Flagler - G (13.8 PPG, 3.0 APG, 2.3 RPG, 1.2 SG, 40.7 3P%)

UNC TAR HEELS vs. BAYLOR BEARS BETTING CONCLUSION

The Baylor Bears are the defending national champions, and they deserve respect. But this is a one-seed with a 27-6 record, and is hardly unbeatable. If L.J. Cryer, the team's leading scorer, were healthy this weekend, the Bears would be a little more dangerous, but without Cryer, this is a team with a short bench which is very beatable. UNC is catching a break seeing them now.

If North Carolina plays like it did against Marquette, it would beat Baylor, Gonzaga, anybody. But that's the rub for the Tar Heels. One game they look like world beaters, then the next they completely take the night off. North Carolina has some NBA talent, including the double-double machine Bacot. This is a very dangerous matchup for the Bears, and they'll be lucky to escape and get to the Sweet Sixteen. I feel as if UNC has the talent to beat Baylor, while the Bears have the experience. We'll see how wins out in the end, but definitely take the Heels and the points while going OVER.

MARCH MADNESS PICK RESOURCES

UNC TAR HEELS vs. BAYLOR BEARS BETTING TRENDS

  • UNC is 5-1 ATS in the past six games overall.
  • UNC is 4-1 ATS in the past five following a SU win.
  • UNC is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight vs. winning teams.
  • UNC is 2-5 ATS in the past seven NCAA Tournament games.
  • UNC is 0-6 ATS in the past six as a 'dog in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Baylor is 6-0 ATS in the past six NCAA Tournament games.
  • Baylor is 5-0 ATS in the past five as a fave in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Baylor is 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 neutral-site games.
  • The OVER is 15-6-1 in the past 22 games overall for UNC.
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the past five as an underdog for UNC.
  • The OVER is 5-2 in the past seven neutral-site games for UNC.
  • The OVER is 5-2 in the past seven after a SU win for Baylor.
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the past five after an ATS win for Baylor.

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Daniel Dobish

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish
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