2023 NCAA Tournament Bracketology Predictions

Bruce Marshall Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

The Big Dance isn’t all about the power conferences, as the low-majors take up considerable space at the edge of the field.  Often, these loops go about their conference tourneys a bit before all of the big boys, and about this time each February we like to do a sneak preview of those early conference tourneys and for specifics of each event, along with last year’s postseason entrants and a look at the favored teams for this year, with clear favorites noted in CAPS. 

America East

Tourney begins March 5 at campus sites; higher seeds will host. Final March 11.

Last year

NCAA - Vermont

Top contenders

• Vermont
• Binghamton
• UMass-Lowell
• Bryant

Atlantic Sun

Tourney begins February 27 at campus sites; higher seeds will host.  Final March 5. 

Last year

NCAA - Jacksonville State
Basketball Classic - Florida Gulf Coast 

Top contenders

• Liberty
• Kennesaw State
• Eastern Kentucky
• Stetson

Big Sky

Tourney begins March 4 at Idaho Central Arena, Boise, ID.  Final March 8. 

Last year

NCAA - Montana State
CBI - Northern Colorado
Basketball Classic - Southern Utah, Eastern Washington 

Top contenders

• EASTERN WASHINGTON
• Montana State
• Weber State

Big South

Tourney begins March 1 at Bojangles Coliseum (formerly Charlotte Coliseum; onetime a part-time home of ABA Carolina Cougars), Charlotte, NC.  Final March 5. 

Last year

NCAA - Longwood
CBI - UNC-Asheville
Basketball Classic - USC Upstate

Top contenders

• UNC-Asheville
• Radford
• Longwood
• Gardner-Webb

Metro Atlantic

Tourney begins March 7 at Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, NJ.  Final March 11. 

Last year

NCAA - St Peter’s
NIT - Iona

Top contenders

• Iona
• Rider
• Siena
• Niagara 

MEAC

Tourney begins March 8 at The Scope, Norfolk, VA (once a part-time home of the ABA Virginia Squires).   Final March 11. 

Last year

NCAA - Norfolk State
Basketball Classic - Morgan State, UMES 

Top contenders

• Howard
• Norfolk State
• UMES 

Northeast

Tourney begins March 1 at campus sites; higher seeds will host.  Final March 7. Note Merrimack and Stonehill are still in transition phase to D-I and ineligible for Big Dance or NIT though Merrimack will be allowed to compete in NEC Tourney. 

Last year

NCAA - Bryant

Top contenders

• Merrimack
• Fairleigh Dickinson
• Wagner
• Sacred Heart
• St. Francis (NY)

Patriot

Tourney begins February 28 at campus sites; higher seeds will host.  Final March 8.

Last year

NCAA - Colgate
CBI - Boston University 

Top contenders

• COLGATE
• Lehigh
• Navy
• Army  

Southland

Tourney begins March 5 at Legacy Center, Lake Charles, LA.  Final March 8. 

Last year

NCAA - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
NIT - Nicholls
Basketball Classic - New Orleans, SE Louisiana

Top contenders

• Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
• Northwestern State
• Nicholls
• SE Louisiana

SWAC

Tourney begins March 8 at Gene Bartow Arena, Birmingham AL.  Final March 11. 

Last year

NCAA - Texas Southern
NIT - Alcorn State 

Top contenders

• Alcorn State
• Southern
• Grambling
• Jackson State

WAC

Tourney begins March 6 at Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV for first two rounds; final three rounds begin March 8 at Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV.  Final March 11. New Mexico State has suspended its season and will not compete. 

Last year

NCAA - New Mexico State
CBI - Abilene Christian, Cal Baptist, Stephen F. Austin 

Top contenders

• Utah Valley
• Seattle
• Southern Utah
• Sam Houston State
• Stephen F. Austin

Bracketology Predictions

2023 NCAA Tournament Futures Odds

Bracketology Seed Predictions

Projections as of February 16, 2023

1. Alabama, Purdue, Houston, UCLA
2. Arizona, Virginia, Kansas, Texas
3. Baylor, Kansas State, Tennessee, Marquette
4. Xavier, Miami-Fl, Gonzaga, Providence
5. Iowa State, Indiana, Saint Mary’s, Creighton
6. UConn, Pittsburgh, Illinois, San Diego State 
7. Duke, Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern
8. Florida Atlantic, Maryland, Texas A&M, Auburn
9. NC State, Rutgers, TCU, Arkansas
10. Nevada, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Clemson
11. Oral Roberts, Boise State, Memphis, Charleston
12. Drake, Southern Miss, West Virginia*, Mississippi State, USC*, Kentucky*
13. VCU, UC Santa Barbara, Utah Valley, Kent State
14. Colgate, Furman, Liberty, Eastern Washington
15. UNC-Asheville, Yale, Iona, Youngstown State
16. Morehead State, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Alcorn State*, Vermont*, Fairleigh Dickinson*, Howard*  

* Play-in game participants at First Four in Dayton

Updated on 04/24/2024

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Last Four In...

1. Mississippi State
2. USC
3. West Virginia
4. Kentucky

First Four Out...

1. North Carolina
2. Michigan
3. Seton Hall
4. Oregon

Next Four Out...

1. Wisconsin
2. Wake Forest
3. Utah State
4. Penn State

Bracketology Conference Bid Predictions

• Big Ten: 9
• Big 12: 8
• SEC: 8
• ACC: 6
• Big East: 5
• Mountain West: 3
• Pac-12: 3
• American: 2
• West Coast: 2

In this week: Mississippi State, Southern Miss, Kent State, Yale, Howard

Out this week: North Carolina, UL-Lafayette, Toledo, Princeton, UMES

Biggest Movers Since Last Update:

February 10 - Bracketology Update

• North Carolina (10 to out)
• Northwestern (10 to 7)
• Arkansas (6 to 9)
• USC (9 to 12)
• Marquette (5 to 3)
• Michigan State (9 to 7)
• Texas A&M (10 to 8)
• Rutgers (7 to 9)
• TCU (7 to 9)
• Missouri (8 to 10)  

Bruce Marshall

Bruce's unique and colorful brand of football and basketball analysis, as well as informed commentary on the national and international sports scene, has made him an in-demand guest for many years on numerous sports talk radio and TV shows across the country. Bruce's vast array of editorial work has also been featured in VegasInsider, along with the Las Vegas Review-Journal and New York Post. Bruce, who is also in the midst of several book projects, combines all of his work while splitting time between Celebration, Florida and Henderson, Nevada. More from Bruce Marshall