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Louisville vs. SMU Prediction: Louisville Creates Distance in ACC

Dylan Wilkerson
Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert
14 minute read
Louisville vs. SMU Prediction: Louisville Creates Distance in ACC

Updated on 10/12/26

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The Louisville Cardinals will take on the SMU Mustangs in this week's college football action. Kickoff is set for 3:30p.m. EST at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, KY. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN2. Here's everything you need to know about Louisville vs. SMU odds, the latest college football spreads, college football over/unders and more.

The Louisville Cardinals opened as a -1.5 point favorite over SMU. The total is set at over/under 59.5 total points scored by both teams combined.

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Updated on 10/12/26

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Louisville vs. SMU Prediction

Louisville operates from a 50/50 run-pass split, establishing balance on offense. They've faced the 11th-toughest strength of schedule and competed in a shootout with Ole Miss in Week 1. That early adversity tested their mettle.

The efficiency metrics are strong. 0.17 EPA per run and 0.55 EPA per pass show Louisville is gaining value in each aspect of the offense. Lincoln Kienholz's 142.4 passer rating under pressure demonstrates composure when things break down. His 4.35% big-time throw rate indicates he has big-play capabilities.

The deciding factor is Kevin Jennings. SMU's quarterback has a 6.41% turnover-worthy play rate. That's significant. One turnover in a close game could cost SMU. Louisville's consistency and operational discipline give them the edge against a team that lives on variance.

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Louisville vs. SMU Prediction: Louisville Moneyline (-115)

(Pick from Dylan Wilkerson)

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Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 5 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson
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