Wyoming vs. Colorado State Predictions, Odds

T&C's Apply, 21+, Only in CO

• November 5, 2020
• By Jonathan Willis
• VegasInsider.com

Former Boston College head coach Steve Addazio is looking for his first win with the Colorado State Rams. Addazio is the second straight coach hired by the Rams from a big school, replacing Mike Bobo.

Bobo led Colorado State to seven wins in his first three seasons, but he was replaced after going 7-17 over the past two years. CSU is an underdog to the Wyoming Cowboys on Thursday night though.

BETTING RESOURCES

• Week 10 Matchup: Mountain West Conference
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: Canvas Stadium
• Location: Fort Collins, Colorado
• Date: Thursday, November 5, 2020
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBSSN
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

Wyoming-Colorado State Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Wyoming -3.5
• Money-Line: Wyoming -170 Colorado State +150
• Total: 52.5

Odds Subject to Change

Colorado State looks to rebound after losing their season opener to Fresno State last week. (AP)

How to Handicap Wyoming-Colorado State

Wyoming has split its first two games of the season. The Cowboys nearly came back to topple the Nevada Wolfpack in their opener before falling 37-34, and they lost starting quarterback Sean Chambers for the season with a broken leg to rub salt in the wound.

That led to the Cowboys being a short home underdog against Hawaii last Friday night. Wyoming was more than a match for the Rainbow Warriors, cruising to a 31-7 win behind a great night from Xazavian Valladay.

The defense rose to the occasion, holding Hawaii to just 233 total yards and 12 first downs, forcing two turnovers in the process.

Colorado State’s opener against New Mexico was postponed as the Lobos were dealing with an outbreak of COVID-19 in their county. That meant the Rams were a little rusty heading into last week’s season opener with Fresno State, and they were hammered 38-17 despite being a small favorite on the road in the valley.

The Bulldogs threw for 348 yards against this defense, and the Rams were unable to match them on offense. Addazio tried to stick to the run, but his running backs did not have much success, averaging 3.7 YPC.

There has only been a small amount of line movement ahead of this game. Wyoming has moved from -3 to -3.5 as the week has progressed, and the total has risen by a point.

Betting Analysis – Cowboys

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• 2020: 1-1 S/U, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U

Chambers’ injury means that redshirt freshman Levi Williams is the new signal caller in Laramie. Williams saw some action in 2019, and he has been decent through the first two games of the 2020 season. He has completed 51 percent of his passes for 6.9 YPA with one touchdown and one interception.

Williams isn’t asked to do much in Craig Bohl’s system though, as Bohl is one of the most run-heavy coaches in college football.

Valladay can attest to that fact. He already has 54 carries through two games, and the Cowboys have run the ball on almost two-thirds of their plays. Wyoming is averaging 4.4 YPC with Williams and Trey Smith also playing a factor in the ground game. Valladay’s nine receptions are also twice as many as anyone on the roster.

This offense is ranked 107th in the nation per Bill Connelly’s SP+, but defense has always been the backbone of this program under Bohl. Wyoming ranks 37th in defensive SP+, as Charles Hicks and Jordan Bertagnole have been two of the best pass rushers in the conference.

The Cowboys are allowing just 3.4 YPC and 6.8 YPA, and they rank among the best in pressuring the quarterback.

Betting Analysis - Rams

• 2020: 0-1 S/U, 0-1 ATS, 0/1 O/U

Addazio has yet to name his starting quarterback for Thursday night. Temple grad transfer Todd Centeio started the season opener last week, but he wasn’t effective. Centeio completed just 10 of 23 passes for 141 yards, yet he was a decent runner with 13 carries for 80 yards.

Patrick O’Brien replaced Centeio under center late in the game. He was able to move the ball effectively, completing 7 of 10 passes for 82 yards and a touchdown. O’Brien isn’t the same running threat as Centeio, but he appears to be a more effective passer even if he was largely throwing against soft coverage.

Both players are seniors, so Addazio might move to a younger quarterback in any other year, but the NCAA’s decision to allow players another year of eligibility in 2021 makes it likely he sticks with O’Brien or Centeio.

Colorado State wants to run the ball as much as possible under Addazio, but they had trouble moving the chains on the ground last week. If you take out Centeio’s numbers, the Rams ran the ball 27 times for 69 yards against Fresno State.

Tight end Trey McBride had a big year in 2019, and he is poised to become Colorado State’s top receiving option in 2020 too. Former five-star receiver Nate Craig-Myers is the best option on the outside, but he has yet to scratch the surface of his immense hype coming out of high school. Warren Jackson was the best receiver on the team coming into the 2020 season, but he opted out in August.

The Rams were expected to have a very good defense this season, but we did not see good things on this side of the ball in the season opener. Projected starting cornerback Brandon Crossley unexpectedly transferred to SMU in July, and Keevan Bailey (son of Hall of Fame cornerback Champ Bailey) did not play well. Colorado State has a great pass rush though, leading to four sacks and multiple hurries last week.

Historically Speaking

Head-to-Head

The Border War is one of the most played rivalries in this part of the country. Colorado State leads Wyoming 58-48-5 all-time, but there have been a lot of runs over the last 100 years. The Cowboys have won four straight games against the Rams heading into Thursday night.

Last Meeting

Wyoming held onto the Bronze Boot with a 17-7 victory over Colorado State in Laramie last year. Neither team amassed more than 300 total yards of offense, but a missed field goal, an interception, and two turnovers on downs in the second half doomed the Rams.

The Cowboys threw for just 81 yards in the game, while the Rams ran 30 times for 48 yards.

Notable Betting Trends

-- Wyoming is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite

-- The under has cashed in five straight Colorado State games

-- Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games against Colorado State

Wyoming-Colorado State Predictions

• Score Prediction: Wyoming 24, Colorado State 20
• Best Bet: Under 52.5

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