Iowa State Cyclones vs. Baylor Bears Predictions, Odds, Picks

Sept. 23, 2021
Jonathan Willis
VI College Football Betting Expert

The Iowa State Cyclones are looking to win their first conference title in over a century. Iowa State was a trendy pick to win the Big 12 at the start of the season, but a lot of the shine has worn off the Cyclones after a rough first two games against in-state rivals. They hammered UNLV last week in Las Vegas, but for the Cyclones to break that streak, they need to beat conference foes starting with the Baylor Bears this Saturday in Waco, Texas.

Score Prediction: Iowa State 34, Baylor 21

Best Bet: Iowa State -7

Best Bet: Over 46.5

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Baylor Bears Predictions

Iowa State has knocked off Baylor in three of the last four seasons. The last meeting between these teams sailed over the total, but the three previous meetings saw 46 points or less scored. We should see more points on the board this time though, as the Cyclones’ offense might finally be ready to get going.

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Iowa State Cyclones vs. Baylor Bears Betting Odds

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Iowa State Cyclones vs. Baylor Bears Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Big 12
  • Date: Saturday, September 25, 2021
  • Venue: McLane Stadium
  • Location: Waco, Texas
  • TV-Time: FOX - 3:30 p.m. ET

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Iowa State Cyclones Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 2-1
  • ATS: 1-2
  • O/U: 0-3
  • ATS - Home: 0-2
  • ATS - Away: 1-0

Breece Hall might be ready to break out. Iowa State’s star running back is averaging just 4.0 YPC, but his effectiveness has increased with each outing. Hall had some success running against Iowa’s solid front seven, and Baylor is unlikely to keep him in check.

The passing game should be better too as Brock Purdy is not as mistake prone as he looked through Iowa State’s first two games. Purdy got back on track against the Rebels last week, completing 87.5% of his passes in that romp, and Baylor has yet to face a quarterback with anywhere close to the same talent as him.

Baylor Bears Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-0
  • ATS: 2-1
  • O/U: 2-1
  • ATS - Home: 1-0
  • ATS - Away: 1-1

How good is Baylor this season? The Bears once again filled their non-conference slots with creampuffs, and their toughest opponent to this point has been Texas State. They couldn’t put the Bobcats away, winning that game by just nine points, and they were buoyed by three Texas State turnovers. This offense had little trouble moving the ball against Texas Southern and Kansas, but the Bears will find it much more difficult to go on long drives against the Cyclones.

The Baylor Bears have won five of their last six home games when facing the Iowa State Cyclones. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Iowa State Cyclones

  • Record: 2-1
  • VI Ranking: 15
  • Points Scored: 81
  • Points Allowed: 40
  • PS/G: 27 (83rd)
  • PA/G: 13.3 (14th)

Inside the Stats - Baylor Bears

  • Record: 3-0
  • VI Ranking: 61
  • Points Scored: 140
  • Points Allowed: 34
  • PS/G: 46.7 (5th)
  • PA/G: 11.3 (8th)

Key Players to Watch

  • IWST: Breece Hall - RB (60 carries, 238 yards, 4 TD)
  • IWST: Xavier Hutchinson - WR (20 catches, 243 yards, 2 TD)
  • BAY: Gerry Bohanon - QB (51/70, 664 yards, 5 TD)
  • BAY: Abram Smith - RB (47 carries, 366 yards, 5 TD)


  • IWST: Jaquan Amoes - DB (Leg-Questionable)

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Baylor Bears Betting Conclusion

People are discounting Iowa State although the Cyclones have long struggled with in-state opponents. Matt Campbell has proven his mettle against conference foes though, while Baylor has yet to face a real opponent in 2021. That should lead to a comfortable win for Iowa State as the offense moves the ball consistently on Dave Aranda and the Bears.

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Baylor Bears Betting Trends

  • Iowa State has won four of its last five road games.
  • Baylor has covered the spread in five of its last seven home games when facing Iowa State.
  • Iowa State has covered the spread in six of its last nine road games.
  • Iowa State has gone UNDER the point total in four of its last six games when playing in Waco.