San Diego State Aztecs vs. San Jose State Spartans Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 15, 2021
Stuart Durst
VI American Football Betting Expert

San Diego State hits the road in its first test since being ranked when it faces San Jose State on Friday night. Kick off is set for a late start time of 10:30 p.m. ET and will air on CBSSN from CEFCU Stadium in San Jose, California.

Score Prediction

San Diego State 24, San Jose State 13

Best Bet

San Diego State -9

San Diego State Aztecs vs. San Jose State Spartans Predictions

After a strong 5-0 start, San Diego State is ranked 24th in the country while San Jose State is 3-3. Both of these teams started the season with fairly high expectations and conference games are as important as ever in this stage of the season. San Diego State wants to keep building on its playoff roster, but San Jose State wants to end its undefeated season just as much - which should be a good game

This is a classic strength-meets-weakness situation. San Diego State has one of the strongest defenses in the nation while San Jose State has struggled on offense this season, and is even dealing with QB injury. It's hard to score points constantly and unfortunately San Jose State’s offense has looked off over the last couple weeks. Unfortunately for the Spartans, this is far from a get right spot. The line opened closer to 7 but is now at -9 to -9.5 with most books, and I wouldn't play it any higher than -9.5

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San Diego State Aztecs vs. San Jose State Spartans Betting Odds

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San Diego State Aztecs vs. San Jose State Spartans Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Mountain West
  • Date: Friday, October 15, 2021
  • Venue: CEFCU Stadium
  • Location: San Jose, California
  • TV-Time: CBSSN - 10:30 p.m. ET

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San Diego State Aztecs Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 5-0
  • ATS: 4-1
  • O/U: 3-2
  • ATS - Home: 3-1
  • ATS - Away: 1-0

As I mentioned before, this San Diego defense has been nasty this year. In last week's Mountain West debut they held New Mexico to seven points on 193 yards of total offense along with two turnovers. This defense has only allowed more than 21 points once this season, and it was in an upset win against Utah earlier in the season.

When San Jose State has stepped up to the table and played defenses somewhat similar to San Diego they have struggled this season. They scored only 14 points against Colorado State last week, three points against Western Michigan, and seven points against USC. None of those teams are easy matchups, but San Jose States' pronounced struggle to score the football should be highlighted against a tough Aztecs defense.

On offense this squad hasn't really been asked to do much but is still getting the job done. At quarterback, Jordon Brookshire and Lucas Johnson are in a committee situation but this team is really all about running the ball. Running back Greg Bell has been extremely productive this season rushing for 520 yards on 94 carries with an additional five TD’s. He’s gone over 100 yards in all four healthy games this season and I expect him to carry the load against San Jose State.

San Jose State Spartans Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-3
  • ATS: 1-5
  • O/U: 3-3
  • ATS - Home: 1-1
  • ATS - Away: 0-4

San Jose State recently lost starting quarterback Nick Starkel to injury. Since filling in, Nick Nash has been good with a 5:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio so far. Its unclear about who will start this game, but it seems like Nash provides a high ceiling with his dual threat ability while Starkel provides a higher floor with his familiarity with the playbook and game manager tendencies. I don't think either of these guys starting changes the spread much but it will be something to keep an eye on.

Another Struggle for the Spartans has been there against the spread record this season. While San Diego State is coming in 4-1 against the spread, San Jose State has been terrible with a 1-5 record against the spread. This team is constantly given a fighting chance by sportsbooks this season, but has continuously dropped the ball against tougher opposition. San Diego State is coming into this game 2-0 against a tougher Pac-12 crowd, while San Jose State doesn't have many quality wins to hang on to outside of a struggling Hawaii team.

The San Diego State Aztecs have covered the spread in six of their last eight games when facing San Jose State. (AP)

Inside the Stats - San Diego State Aztecs

  • Record: 5-0
  • VI Ranking: 37
  • Points Scored: 178
  • Points Allowed: 83
  • PS/G: 35.6 (26th)
  • PA/G: 16.6 (16th)

Inside the Stats - San Jose State Spartans

  • Record: 3-3
  • VI Ranking: 86
  • Points Scored: 123
  • Points Allowed: 143
  • PS/G: 20.5 (113th)
  • PA/G: 23.8 (62nd)

Key Players to Watch

  • SDST: Greg Bell - RB (94 carries, 520 yards, 5 TD)
  • SDST: Tayler Hawkins - DB (19 tackles, 2 INT, 3 PDs)
  • SJST: Nick Nash - QB (26/41, 347 yards, 5 TD, INT)
  • SJST: Derrick Deese - WR (19 catches, 334 yards, 3 TD)


  • SJST: Nick Starkel - QB (Arm-Questionable)
  • SDST: Tayler Hawkins - S (Knee-Questionable)
  • SDST: Dallas Branch - CB (Hand-Questionable)

San Diego State Aztecs vs. San Jose State Spartans Betting Conclusion

This team has not been able to contain superior offenses and has struggled on defense. Averaging only 20.5 points per game isn't gonna cut it, especially considering this is their toughest matchup of the season. This spread should probably be close to -12. Tough spot coming off a deflating loss against Colorado State and I think the pain continues for Spartans fans this week.

San Diego State Aztecs vs. San Jose State Spartans Betting Trends

  • San Jose State has failed to cover the spread in five straight games.
  • San Diego State has gone UNDER the point total in eight straight games when facing a school from California.
  • The point total has gone UNDER in three straight meetings.