San Jose State Spartans vs. UNLV Rebels Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Oct. 21, 2021

Stuart Durst
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

A Mountain West meeting is set for Thursday night as the San Jose State Spartans head to Vegas to take on the UNLV Rebels. Kick off is set for a late 11:00 p.m. ET time and will air on CBSSN from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Score Prediction

San Jose State 24, UNLV 17

Best Bet

Under

San Jose State Spartans vs. UNLV Rebels Predictions

San Jose State comes into this game after a tough defeat last week against a tough San Diego State team in overtime. UNLV is coming in off of a tough loss against Utah State with a couple key minutes keeping them just short last week.

This game is very interesting. Both of these teams are playing above their record so far this year and are in dire need of a win. UNLV is one of the few winless teams left in the country but has actually been playing good football this season. San Jose State has had some tough losses but played very well against San Diego State last week, which definitely impressed me.

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San Jose State Spartans vs. UNLV Rebels Betting Odds

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San Jose State Spartans vs. UNLV Rebels Betting Resources

Matchup: Mountain West
Date: Thursday, October 21, 2021
Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
TV-Time: CBSSN - 11:00 p.m. ET

San Jose State Spartans Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 3-4
ATS: 2-5
O/U: 3-4
ATS - Home: 2-1
ATS - Away: 0-4

San Jose State averages 19.4 points per game this season, which isn't impressive, but have also played some tough defenses. Quarterback Nick Nash has impressed me in his starts, and despite the health of Starkel would probably be my personal starter for the rest of the season. Maybe that may be a bit of an overreaction but Nash currently boasts a 5-2 touchdown to interception ratio and has additionally ran for 27, 38, and 34 yards this season.

Nash threw for his highest yarderage last week against one of the top ranked defenses in the country, and still managed 228 yards through the air and 27 yards on the ground. In a game that might be lacking top tier talent, I think Nash’s dual threat abilities really make him the x-factor this week.

Laying -4.5 for a team that has struggled this season obviously isn't great ,but I think they are good enough to take care of business. The UNLV Rebels give up 451.5 yards per game this series and are a prime spot for Nash to have his best game of the season.

UNLV Rebels Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 0-6
ATS: 4-1-1
O/U: 2-4
ATS - Home: 1-1-1
ATS - Away: 3-0

It feels like everyone is gonna remember UNLV’s close game against Fresno State earlier this year where they almost took down their first ranked opponent in a while. As someone who had money on Fresno State to cover a 30 point spread that night, seeing them trail to UNLV at halftime was not a great sight. While UNLV did end up losing the game, lots of people tuned in to see the drama. I think they have already proved themselves better than their record shows, but they still need to get in the win column this year.

Beyond that Fresno State game, they've always played close games against Utah State and UTSA over the last couple weeks. After getting their butts whooped by Iowa State, it seems like this UNLV squad got themselves on the right path.

The Rebels have been underdogs by five points or more five times this season and are 4-1 ATS in those games. It's important to note that UNLV has been really good in these types of games, and having the full picture is important. I'm not convinced their defense is quite strong enough to slow down San Jose State but they have been able to stay very competitive this season.

The San Jose State Spartans have failed to cover the spread in four straight games when facing a non-AP-ranked school. (AP)

Inside the Stats - San Jose State Spartans

Record: 3-4
VI Ranking: 88
Points Scored: 136
Points Allowed: 162
PS/G: 19.4 (117th)
PA/G: 23.1 (58th)

Inside the Stats - UNLV Rebels

Record: 0-6
VI Ranking: 130
Points Scored: 117
Points Allowed: 210
PS/G: 19.5 (116th)
PA/G: 35 (116th)

Key Players to Watch

SJST: Nick Nash - QB (42/75, 575 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT)
SJST: Derrick Deese - WR (25 catches, 447 yards, 3 TD)
UNLV: Charles Williams - RB (120 carries, 620 yards, 6 TD)
UNLV: Steve Jenkins - WR (15 catches, 223 yards, 2 TD)

Injuries

UNLV: Giovanni Fauolo, Sr. - TE (Knee-Out)
UNLV: Tate Martell - QB (Foot-Out)
UNLV: Tyleek Collins - WR (Undisclosed-Questionable)
UNLV: Jayvaun Wilson - RB (Undisclosed-Questionable)
UNLV: Cameron Friel - QB (Leg-Questionable)
UNLV: Kyle Williams - WR (Hamstring-Questionable)
UNLV: Doug Brumfield - QB (Knee-Questionable)
SJST: Nick Starkel - QB (Arm-Questionable)

San Jose State Spartans vs. UNLV Rebels Betting Conclusion

Going back and forth between the spread and total was tough in this game. I'm excited to see these teams play and I honestly think it could go either way. My score Prediction is 24-17, 41 total points, and I think we have a great cushion under the 46.5 point total. I'm expecting a close game but we've seen that when both of these teams play competitive games, the score stays low.

San Jose State Spartans vs. UNLV Rebels Betting Trends

San Jose State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games.
San Jose State has failed to cover the spread in four straight games when facing a non-AP-ranked school.
San Jose State has seen the point total go UNDER in 10 of its last 13 games.
UNLV has covered the spread in four of its last five games.
UNLV has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six home games.