Oregon Ducks vs. UCLA Bruins Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

Oct. 23, 2021

Eytan Shander
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

There’s a ton on the line at the Rose Bowl come Saturday afternoon as the Oregon Ducks still have the inside track to win the Pac-12. There’s also playoff potential as the Ducks visit the Bruins at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Score Prediction

Oregon 30, UCLA 20

Best Bet

Oregon +1

Under

Oregon Ducks vs. UCLA Bruins Predictions

The Ducks haven’t made it look easy by any standard this season but still come into this game only bearing a single loss. With a win against UCLA, the conference hope of sending a team to the playoffs remains alive.

The Ducks are going to have to walk a balance of smart passes with taking some risks. Anthony Brown has been fantastic in not turning the ball over but hasn’t been a consistent threat to get the ball deep down the field. It just so happens that the Bruins are one of the worst teams in the country in defending the pass, so here is the entry point for an eventual Ducks win.

Oregon can run too. Going over 200 yards per game on the ground in each of their last two victories. The total is higher at 60 points because of the belief in UCLA making this a shootout. But for points to fly there needs to be two willing participants.

I have no doubt the defense will comply, but the biggest question is can UCLA’s offense keep up with the number of points surrendered by their defense. They can also run the ball, but Oregon’s defense will prove to be just a little too much.

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Oregon Ducks vs. UCLA Bruins Betting Odds

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UCLA is a 1-point home favorite against Oregon. The Ducks are 1-5 ATS and the Bruins are 5-2 ATS.

The total for this game is 60.5 points. The combined O/U for both teams is 5-8.

Oregon Ducks vs. UCLA Bruins Betting Resources

Matchup: Pac-12
Date: Saturday, October 23, 2021
Venue: Rose Bowl
Location: Pasadena, California
TV-Time: ABC - 3:30 p.m. ET

Oregon Ducks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 5-1
ATS: 1-5
O/U: 2-4
ATS - Home: 0-4
ATS - Away: 1-1

Oregon has a lot on their plate and still hasn’t looked like the playoff team we saw beat Ohio State. Anthony Brown is at nearly 1200 yards in the air with 7 TDs but most impressive is his lone interception. The Bruins can’t defend the pass, so this is a great opportunity for Brown to take some shots down the field.

Brown has a couple of options but the prime one is Jonny Johnson III with 200 yards receiving. Travis Dye is a dual threat RB who can break through on the ground and catching the ball, as he’s the team’s second leading receiver. The Ducks are brutal on defense from a numbers standpoint but have a ton of athletes that will cause trouble for UCLA.

UCLA Bruins Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 5-2
ATS: 5-2
O/U: 3-4
ATS - Home: 2-2
ATS - Away: 3-0

Zach Charbonnet. The Bruins back rushed for 131 yards against Washington. He’s hit the century mark in five of seven. The myth of Oregon’s run defense is they benefit from teams who gave up running. If the Bruins keep Charbonnet out there and keep pounding away, UCLA will be in this game.

The Ducks want to control the clock and UCLA can counter with their stud back. As impressive as Brown has been with the ball for the Ducks, UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson may be even better. Only one more INT than Brown but nearly double the TDs at 13.

It won’t be easy, but the Bruins must get the ball to their top two targets, TE Greg Dulcich and WR Kyle Philips. UCLA also features a change-up RB in Brittain Brown who could provide a gash or two on the Ducks run defense.

The UCLA Bruins have gone OVER the point total in five of its last six home games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Oregon Ducks

Record: 5-1
VI Ranking: 14
Points Scored: 203
Points Allowed: 126
PS/G: 33.8 (33rd)
PA/G: 21 (42nd)

Inside the Stats - UCLA Bruins

Record: 5-2
VI Ranking: 32
Points Scored: 235
Points Allowed: 176
PS/G: 33.6 (35th)
PA/G: 25.1 (69th)

Key Players to Watch

ORE: Anthony Brown, Jr. - QB (90/152, 1,203 yards, 8 TD, INT)
ORE: Travis Dye - RB (79 carries, 527 yards, 4 TD)
UCLA: Dorian Thompson-Robinson - QB (101/166, 1,419 yards, 13 TD, 2 INT)
UCLA: Zach Charbonnet - RB (109 carries, 697 yards, 7 TD)

Injuries

UCLA: Kyle Philips - WR (Undisclosed-Probable)
UCLA: Delon Hurt - WR (Legal-Out)
UCLA: Mike Martinez - TE (Undisclosed-Questionable)
UCLA: Sam Marrazzo - OL (Undisclosed-Questionable)
UCLA: Ethan Fernea - WR (Hand-Questionable)
UCLA: Kenny Churchwell - DB (Undisclosed-Questionable)
OREG: Cam McCormick - TE (Achilles-Out)
OREG: C.J. Verdell - RB (Leg-Out)
OREG: J.J. Greenfield - S (Suspension-Out)
OREG: Bennett Williams - DB (Fibula-Out)

Oregon Ducks vs. UCLA Bruins Betting Conclusion

The number that will jump out to most is how bad Oregon has been ATS, just 1-5 on the year. In this case they were bet off the favorite spot into a short road dog. The change in spread helps buck that trend for Oregon, which will be backed up with a couple of matchup advantages.

Don’t expect UCLA to be reckless but do expect Oregon to methodically grind down the ball and the clock. Both teams have poor enough defenses that they will give up points no matter what, but this is far from the shootout predicted with the 60.5-point total.

This is a trust bet with Oregon – specifically trusting their defensive front to get more stops and cause that pivotal turnover. Ducks pull away after a quick scare by the Bruins.