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Last Updated Oct 29, 2021, 00:00 AM

Navy Midshipmen vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 29, 2021
Stuart Durst
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

AAC action on Friday night sees the Navy Midshipmen hit the road to take on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. Kick off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET and will air on ESPN2 from Chapman Stadium in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Score Prediction

Tulsa 26, Navy 17

Best Bet

Navy +11

Navy Midshipmen vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Predictions

We get a Friday night showdown between two AAC Rivals who aren't quite playing up to expectations. Navy is coming into this game with a 1-6 record, but they have played above what that number reflects. It's been a very up-and-down season for Tulsa, but this will be a good matchup to see just how good this team is. At 3-4, Tulsa is playing with a lot more money on the table this week.

I like this Navy team. While they're currently sitting on one win, they're giving legitimately good teams tough games. Last week the whole nation watched Kansas almost beat Oklahoma. Despite the fact that everyone ran with that storyline, watching the game it was quite clear that Kansas was never actually winning that game. If you watch enough sports, you get that feeling often. Navy is someone never gives me that feeling, always fighting as the favorite despite the opponent.

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Navy Midshipmen vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Betting Odds

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Navy Midshipmen vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AAC
  • Date: Friday, October 29, 2021
  • Venue: Chapman Stadium
  • Location: Tulsa, Oklahoma
  • TV-Time: ESPN2 - 7:30 p.m. ET



Navy Midshipmen Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 1-6
  • ATS: 4-3
  • O/U: 3-4
  • ATS - Home: 3-2
  • ATS - Away: 1-1

Over the last couple weeks, Navy has lost by seven points to two multiple nationally ranked opponents. Last week their performance, on both offense and defense, was definitely impressive against the reigning AAC champion Cincinnati Bearcats. Before that, they were down seven points against SMU in another close game against the No. 19 ranked team. Beating UCF, and narrowly losing by eight points to Houston has me more than excited for them to cover the spread this week.

For those not familiar, Navy is a triple threat rushing team that rarely throws the ball. They're the best rushing team in the AAC and are additionally bottom five in terms of penalties committed. This team has only gone over 100 passing yards once this season and I honestly doubt they will on Friday, it's just not how they play.

If this Navy team can establish the run and not fall behind early then they can play a very competitive game. This team doesn't play well when put in bad game scripts and will do their best to control time of possession and run the ball. It's not always pretty but this Navy team can stay in games very well.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-4
  • ATS: 3-4
  • O/U: 6-1
  • ATS - Home: 1-3
  • ATS - Away: 2-1

While the Navy defense has often been criticized, Tulsa's might actually be worse. While they have done a good job at getting to the passer, their secondary has struggled. It's kind of easy to go down the logic tree that if their weakness is pass defense and their strength is rush defense, then why not back Tulsa? Looking at a team's strengths and weaknesses might be very black and white on paper, but there is a lot of nuance involved. If you went by that same logic, Cincinnati should have absolutely crushed Navy with that defense line they have, but the game actually stayed really close.

Davis Brin has really been a good sleeper quarterback in terms of stacking up passing yards but man does he have some issues. The guy has turned over the ball eight times over the last five games, and those kinds of numbers cant be sustained if this team wants to win football games. I think Navy’s one-dimensional nature makes them a team that's easier to beat, but I do think that this Navy team can cover an 11 point spread.

Inside the Stats - Navy Midshipmen

  • Record: 1-6
  • VI Ranking: 112
  • Points Scored: 125
  • Points Allowed: 223
  • PS/G: 17.9 (122nd)
  • PA/G: 31.9 (107th)

Inside the Stats - Tulsa Golden Hurricane

  • Record: 3-4
  • VI Ranking: 100
  • Points Scored: 178
  • Points Allowed: 227
  • PS/G: 25.4 (88th)
  • PA/G: 32.4 (110th)

Key Players to Watch

  • NAVY: Tai Lavatai - QB (99 carries, 178 yards, 4 TD)
  • NAVY: Isaac Ruoss - RB (98 carries, 388 yards, 2 TD)
  • TULS: Davis Brin - QB (135/233, 1,914 yards, 10 TD, 10 INT)
  • TULS: Josh Johnson - WR (42 catches, 555 yards, 3 TD)

Injuries

  • TULS: Cullen Wick - DE (Undisclosed-Questionable)
  • TULS: Kendarin Ray - S (Foot-Questionable)
  • NAVY: Mitchell West - S (Leg-Questionable)
  • NAVY: Jake Cossavella - OT (Undisclosed-Questionable)

Navy Midshipmen vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Betting Conclusion

The under was also very tempting in this game. While both teams have struggled on defense this season, the opposing offenses have struggled to take advantage of it. My projected number of 44 gives us three points of value from the current 47 number which I feel is a tad high. I'm expecting a low scoring game, where Tulsa pulls out the win but Navy grabs us a nice cover.

Navy Midshipmen vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Betting Trends

  • Tulsa has gone OVER the point total in six of its last seven games.
  • Navy has seen the home team cover the spread in four straight games.
  • Navy has covered the spread in three of its last four games when facing Tulsa.
  • Navy has won three of its last four games when facing Tulsa.


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