LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Predictions, Odds, Picks

Nov. 6, 2021
Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert

Saturday's SEC showdown features the LSU Tigers traveling to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide. Kick off is set for 7:00 p.m. ET and will air on ESPN from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

Score Prediction

Alabama 41, LSU 20

Best Bet

LSU +28.5


LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Predictions

The Alabama Crimson Tide are massive favorites against the LSU Tigers this week. LSU is playing out the string with lame duck head coach Ed Orgeron, and the Bayou Bengals have been surprisingly mediocre since winning the 2019 CFP National Championship. They have gone 9-9 in their 18 games since beating Clemson for the title, and they are unlikely to finish better than .500 considering what’s left on the schedule.

Heisman Trophy front runner Bryce Young could become the odds-on favorite to win the honor with a strong performance in Tuscaloosa on Saturday night. Young is one of a handful of quarterbacks that has lived up to the billing this season, and he should have little trouble beating up on LSU’s defense.

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LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Odds

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LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Resources

  • Matchup: SEC
  • Date: Saturday, November 6, 2021
  • Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium
  • Location: Tuscaloosa, Alabama
  • TV-Time: ESPN - 7:00 p.m. ET

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LSU Tigers Deacons Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 4-4
  • ATS: 3-5
  • O/U: 4-4
  • ATS - Home: 2-2
  • ATS - Away: <1-3/li>

Max Johnson has not been bad this season for LSU. The Tigers rank 36th in Offensive SP+ as Johnson has thrown for over 2,000 yards with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions. He hasn’t been the most accurate quarterback though, and top receiver Kayshon Boutte was lost for the season last month. There have been many great running backs at LSU, but Tyrion Davis-Price holds the single game rushing record after carrying the ball 36 times for 287 yards and three touchdowns in an upset win over Florida three weeks ago. Davis-Price ripped off big gains against Florida and Kentucky, but he has been held to 4.0 YPC or less against evert other FBS opponent. LSU’s defense has not been good this year. Daronte Jones has not been able to right the ship, and the Tigers have been decimated by injuries. Starting cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Eli Ricks were both lost for the season, and standout defensive lineman Ali Gaye is out for the year too. The secondary could be a wreck as Sage Ryan and Cordale Flott are considered unlikely to play, and Major Burns is questionable.

Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-1
  • ATS: 5-3
  • O/U: 3-4-1
  • ATS - Home: 3-1
  • ATS - Away: 2-2

Young hasn’t missed a beat in replacing Mac Jones. He came out of the gate strong with a great performance against Miami, and Young has thrown for at least 345 yards in each of Alabama’s last three outings. The offensive line hasn’t done a great job of protecting him though, as he has been sacked multiple times in six straight games.

His two favorite targets have been Jameson Williams and John Metchie III. The pair have combined for over 1,300 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2021, and no other receiver on the team has more than 20 receptions or 200 yards. Tight end Cameron Latu is worth watching in the red zone though, as he has five receiving touchdowns on just 13 catches.

Alabama’s ground game hasn’t been as menacing as it has usually been through most of Nick Saban’s tenure. The offensive line is not playing at an elite level, so the Crimson Tide are averaging just 4.5 YPC. Brian Robinson Jr. leads the team at 5.0 YPC.

The Crimson Tide have the 10th best defense in the country per SP+. Alabama’s linebacking corps took a big hit with the loss of Christopher Allen, but it appears that Drew Sanders will return after missing the last month with a hand injury.

The Alabama Crimson Tide have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 home games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - LSU Tigers

  • Record: 4-4
  • VI Ranking: 38
  • Points Scored: 244
  • Points Allowed: 230
  • PS/G: 30.5 (51st)
  • PA/G: 28.8 (85th)

Inside the Stats - Alabama Crimson Tide

  • Record: 7-1
  • VI Ranking: 5
  • Points Scored: 367
  • Points Allowed: 165
  • PS/G: 45.9 (2nd)
  • PA/G: 20.6 (30th)

Key Players to Watch

  • LSU: Max Johnson - QB (162/264, 2,008 yards, 20 TD, 5 INT)
  • LSU: Tyrion Davis-Price - RB (120 carries, 628 yards, 6 TD)
  • BAMA: Bryce Young - QB (188/268, 2,453 yards, 26 TD, 3 INT)
  • BAMA: Brian Robinson, Jr. - RB (142 carries, 706 yards, 11 TD)

LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Conclusion

This game will be a rout, but Alabama will call off the dogs early. Nick Saban doesn’t typically run it up against outmatched opponents, even if they are rivals like LSU. The Crimson Tide will be content to keep the ball on the ground after jumping out to a big lead, allowing the Tigers to stay within the number.

LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Trends

  • Alabama has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 home games.
  • LSU has gone UNDER the point total in seven of its last eight games when facing an AP-ranked Top 10 school in November.
  • The road team has covered the spread in five straight meetings.
  • The road team has won four of the last five meetings.