Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

The Alabama Crimson Tide travel to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in an SEC conference game Saturday at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on CBS.

Updated on 05/11/2024

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ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE vs. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS BETTING PREDICTION

The Alabama Crimson Tide opened SEC play with a 55-3 whipping of Vanderbilt last weekend in Tuscaloosa, it's third win of the season by 52 or more points. But those three games won by 52 or more were at home, against cupcakes Utah State, UL Monroe and Vandy. The only time the Tide has ventured on the road, Alabama narrowly escaped at Texas by a 20-19 count, playing mostly against a backup quarterback. So we'll see if facing a dual-threat QB like K.J. Jefferson on the road in a hostile environment will turn the tide in favor of the Razorbacks.

Arkansas will be fighting made after getting upended 23-21 in a neutral-site game against Texas A&M last weekend in Arlington, Texas. The Razorbacks will be playing their third conference game of the season, and can ill afford a loss here if they hope to have any shot in the SEC West. The UNDER result last week was the first for Arkansas after the OVER opened 2-0-1 at most shops.

Bama has dominated this series, leading the all-time battles by a 22-8 margin, including each of the previous 14 meetings, or 15 if you count a 41-38 win in Sept. 2007 in Tuscaloosa which was vacated. The last time the Hogs won came back on Sept. 23, 2006 in Fayetteville. When Arkansas last won in this series, Jefferson was a five-year-old living in Sardis, Mississippi. Yeah, it's been a while. That being said, I think Jefferson and the Razorbacks have what it takes to spring a major upset, and turn the SEC (and college football world) upside down.

Score Prediction: Arkansas 30, Alabama 27
Best Bet: Arkansas +17.5 (-109)
Best Bet: UNDER 61 (-108)

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE vs. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS BETTING ODDS

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ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE vs. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022
Matchup: SEC
Venue: Razorback Stadium
Location: Fayetteville, Arkansas
Time-TV: FOX, 12:00 p.m. ET
Expert Picks

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE BETTING ANALYSIS

Alabama has handled the likes of Utah State and UL Monroe, a pair of God awful mid-tier teams, and it pounded Vanderbilt, which is nothing to puff out your chest about. What sticks in my mind is how it was fortunate to barely beat a Texas team which was playing with its backup quarterback after QB Quinn Ewers exited that game early with an injury. The Crimson Tide looked like a completely different team on the road, playing a legitimate Power 5 team and not a cream puff. I believe Arkansas is a lot better than Texas.

The stats for Bama are impressive, ranking sixth in the nation with 517.5 total yards per game, 10th in rushing yards at 235.0 per game and sixth in points scored per game with 48.3. The defense is equally impressive, allowing just 201.3 total yards per game to rank 2nd overall, and 7.3 points per game yielded to rank 3rd. But, again, peek that schedule. It's seriously embarrassing. And when Alabama was tested, it passed - barely.

Alabama heads into play with a 5-2 ATS mark in the past seven games overall, but it is 1-4 ATS in the past five on the road, and 1-6 ATS in the past seven games on the road against a team with a winning home record.

For totals, it's all UNDER all the time for Bama lately. The UNDER has cashed in five of the past six games overall dating back to last season, while cashing in five straight against teams with a winning overall mark.

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS BETTING ANALYSIS

Jefferson and the Razorbacks are legit on offense. The dual-threat QB has completed 69.1% of his passes for 941 yards, eight touchdowns and just one interception while running for 274 yards and four more scores, leading the team in rushing TDs. When Jefferson isn't toting the pill, it's RB Raheim Sanders gobbling up huge chunks of real estate, averaging 6.1 yards per carry with three tutties and 508 rushing yards overall.

The Razorbacks have covered at a 5-2-1 ATS clip across the past eight games overall dating back to last season, while going 3-1-1 ATS in the previous five SEC affairs. The Hogs are also 4-1 ATS in the past five home games in Fayetteville, so even if it is unable to pull off the upset, winning straight up, catching more than two touchdowns is quite a bit. And the only total trend for Arkansas shows it is 8-3 to the UNDER in the past 11 games following a SU loss.

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE vs. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS BETTING TRENDS

• Alabama is 5-2 ATS in the past seven games overall
• Alabama is 1-4 ATS in the past five road games
• Alabama is 6-1 ATS in the past seven October games
• Arkansas is 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight games overall
• Arkansas is 4-1 ATS in the past five home games
• Arkansas is 3-1-1 ATS in the five SEC games
• UNDER is 5-1 in the past six games for Alabama
• UNDER is 5-0 in the past five vs. winning teams for Alabama
• UNDER is 8-3 in the past 11 after a SU loss for Arkansas
• Road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish