Last Updated Dec 01, 2022, 10:16 AM
Oregon Ducks vs. Oregon State Beavers Picks, Predictions, Odds
Sports Betting Expert
The Oregon Ducks still have a slim chance of making the College Football Playoff, but they must win out and probably need a convincing win over the Oregon State Beavers this weekend. However, it's never easy to win in Corvallis especially not with the "Civil War" on the line. These in-state rivals will face off on Saturday, November 26, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC from Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Oregon.
Oregon Ducks vs. Oregon State Beavers Betting Prediction
Although the Oregon Ducks have dominated their series with the Oregon State Beavers in recent years, winning 12 out of the last 14 meeting between these teams, they have struggled to win in Corvallis. Oregon lost to Oregon State in Corvallis in 2016 and 2020, and the Beavers have reveled in the role of spoiler. Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith is having his best season yet since taking over this program, and he has the potential to lead the Beavers to their first 10-win season since 2006 with a win over the Ducks.
Score Prediction: Oregon 37, Oregon State 34
Best Bet: Over 59 (-110)
Oregon Ducks vs. Oregon State Beavers Betting Odds
Oregon Ducks vs. Oregon State Beavers Betting Resources
Oregon Ducks Betting Analysis
After a dismal performance in the season opener against Georgia, many questioned Oregon's decision to put so much faith in Auburn transfer Bo Nix to turn around the offense. Nix completed 21 of 37 passes for 173 yards and threw two interceptions in a 49-3 beatdown at the hands of the defending national champions, seemingly putting an end to the thought of Oregon as a contender. However, he has since thrived out west and is completing 72.4% of his passes for 3,062 yards (9.1 YPA) with 25 touchdowns and six interceptions. Nix has proven himself as a runner too with 513 rushing yards (6.4 YPC) and 14 touchdowns.
Bucky Irving is the leading rusher on the Ducks with 851 yards (6.6 YPC) and three TDs. He has split carries with Noah Whittington who has run for 673 yards (6.0 YPC) and four touchdowns. The top receiver by a wide margin is Tony Franklin who has caught 48 passes for 789 yards and seven touchdowns. Kris Hutson is Nix's favorite underneath receiver with 41 receptions for 452 yards, while Dont'e Thornton has been a big play threat in recent weeks and is averaging 22.9 YPR.
First-year head coach Dan Lanning was hired away from Georgia to improve this defense. Lanning has the Ducks' defense ranked 44th in SP+ even though Kayvon Thibodeaux left for the NFL. D.J. Johnson leads the Ducks with six sacks, but the Ducks have not been as successful at getting to the quarterback as they were last year with just 15 sacks as a team. They rank second-to-last nationally in sack rate, and that has also hurt this pass defense.
Oregon State Beavers Betting Analysis
Freshman Ben Gulbranson replaced Chance Nolan as the team's starting quarterback after Nolan threw six interceptions in 36 pass attempts against USC and Utah. That led to Oregon State losing both those games, and the loss to the Trojans really stung since that was a winnable game without the turnovers. This offense has been a lot more toned down with Gulbranson under center, but they have also limited the turnovers. That has allowed Oregon State to win five of its last six games. Gulbranson is completing 63.2% of his passes for 1,230 yards (7.5 YPA) with eight touchdowns and three interceptions this season, and he has only been sacked nine times.
Fellow freshman Damien Martinez has thrived since taking over as Oregon State's top running back. Martinez has run for at least 100 yards in each of his last five games, and he has run for 867 yards (6.1 YPC) and seven touchdowns on the season. Jam Griffin has been the No. 2 back in this offense with Deshaun Fenwick injured. Meanwhile, Tre'Shaun Harrison has 50 receptions for 589 yards and four touchdowns as the team's leading receiver.
Oregon State's defense is ranked 20th in SP+. The Beavers are allowing just 19.0 PPG and 337.0 YPG, ranking in the top 25 nationally in both categories. The secondary has been very good, allowing 6.1 YPA even though Oregon State has just 16 sacks on the season. Alex Austin is seen as a potential early-round draft pick, but there are five defensive backs with at least six pass defenses this season.