College Football Week 9 Best Bets: 12 Bets For College Football Saturday

College Football Week 9 Best Bets: 12 Bets For College Football Saturday

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Last week, we went 11-14 in my college football best bets article bringing us to 26-24 in the last 3 weeks, inlcuding moneyline dogs winning outright such as Stanford and Minnesota! This week my best bets take us back to Minnesota, and we get into a Mountain West matchup between Colorado State and Wyoming.

I will be updating this article as more bets get placed, so be sure to check back regularly and add us as a featured source to get the latest sports odds, news, and picks!

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BOWLING GREEN VS. KENT STATE BEST BET

BGSU @ KENT Odds

These are two of the worst offenses in college football. Bowling Green ranks 125th in pass offense and 99th in rush offense, while Kent State ranks 100th in pass offense and 134th in rush offense. Both teams play slow, with Bowling Green averaging 66.1 offensive snaps per game and Kent State averaging 62.3 offensive snaps per game.

Bowling Green's defense is 43rd in EPA/play allowed, which is a great mark for a MAC school. With Bowling Green's slow play and their ability to shut down teams on defense, I expect a low-scoring affair in this MAC matchup.

Bet: Bowling Green Falcons @ Kent State Golden Flashes u48 (-110)


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SMU VS. WAKE FOREST BEST BET

SMU @ WF Odds

Both of these teams are around average in terms of pace, both averaging around 69 offensive snaps per game. SMU's defense is strong, ranking 29th in total EPA allowed. Wake's defense is even more stout, ranking 17th in total EPA allowed. Wake's defense is particularly efficient against the pass, ranking 6th in pass EPA/game allowed.

Neither of these offenses are particularly explosive, so I expect long drives and few points in this ACC matchup.

Bet: SMU Mustangs @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons u53.5 (-105)


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UCONN VS RICE CAROLINA BEST BET

This is a play on Rice's offense and their game plan as a whole. Rice averages 68 offensive snaps per game, but 70% of their plays have been run plays. Rice is used to running the ball and draining clock. Defensively, Rice is 17th in defensive success rate, with a particular strength against the pass. If Rice's defense can stifle UConn's pass attack, their offensive game plan is conducive to a low-scoring matchup.

Bet: UConn Huskies @ Rice Owls u48.5 (-110)


PLACE THIS BET INSTANTLY AT DRAFTKINGS!

MINNESOTA VS. IOWA BEST BET

MINN @ IOWA Odds

Minnesota has a few advantages here. I don't see any way Iowa gets any pass offense going against the 19th-ranked pass defense that Minnesota boasts. Conversely, Minnesota is going to try to move the ball in the air, and I think they will find success. Minnesota QB Drake Lindsey has been efficient and has an equal big-time throw rate and turnover-worthy play rate. He also has an equal passer rating when kept clean and under pressure, showing that no matter the situation, Lindsey can keep his composure.

Minnesota is coming off of an upset of Nebraska, and I would not be shocked if they pull off another one here.

Bet: Minnesota Golden Gophers +9.5 (-110)


PLACE THIS BET INSTANTLY AT DRAFTKINGS!

TEMPLE VS. TULSA BEST BET

TEM @ TLSA Odds

Temple has Tulsa outclassed here. Normally when you see such a big discrepancy in team statistics, it is because there is a major difference in schedules. However, PFF has Temple's SOS as 100th and Tulsa's as 85th. This is not nearly large enough to justify the difference in the numbers these teams have put up.

Temple has the 10th-ranked passing offense and 29th-ranked passing defense. When compared to Tulsa's abysmal numbers across the board, the pick becomes very clear. Tulsa's defense is ranked 70th in passing and 97th in rushing, but their offensive stats all rank 100th or worse. Temple is a much better team than Tulsa.

Bet: Temple Owls -4.5 (-115)


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NORTH CAROLINA STATE VS. PITTSBURGH BEST BET

NCST @ PITT Odds

Both of these teams are rather equal on paper, but North Carolina State has played a much tougher schedule than Pitt. PFF has NC State's strength of schedule listed as the 33rd toughest, while Pitt's is 81st.

This disparity in the schedule can explain Pitt's strong defensive statistics. NC State posts the 22nd-best pass offense in college football and the modest 61st rush offense. All noble numbers for a difficult schedule. I expect NC State to keep this one close.

Bet: North Carolina State Wolfpack +6.5 (-105)


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WESTERN MICHIGAN VS. MIAMI OH BEST BET

WMU @ M-OH Odds

Both of these teams play slow and run the ball more than they pass the ball. Western Michigan averages 70 offensive snaps per game, and Miami averages 65.7. Both teams have run the ball over half the time when they are on offense. This alone sets up for a low-scoring affair.

Miami's defense is particularly strong on early downs, ranking 37th in early-downs EPA/play allowed. Western Michigan is T21st in 3rd-down success rate allowed and 35th in early-downs EPA/play allowed. I expect this MAC matchup to be a low-scoring affair.

Best Bet: Western Michigan Broncos @ Miami (OH) RedHawks u41.5 (-110)


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IOWA STATE VS. BYU BEST BET

BYU @ ISU Odds

BYU may be the better team on paper, but the situation provides an advantage for Iowa State. ISU is coming off of 2 losses, but they had a bye last week to attempt to get right before a major game against BYU. BYU, on the other hand, is coming off of a close game against their rival late last Saturday.

The QB advantage belongs to Rocco Becht and Iowa State, with Becht nearing a 5% big-time throw rate while keeping his turnover play rate under 2%. Iowa State will deliver BYU their first loss of the season this week.

Best Bet: Iowa State Cyclones -2.5 (-115)


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TEXAS VS. MISSISSIPPI STATE BEST BET

TEX @ MSST Odds

These are two balanced offenses and strong defenses. Texas' defense is 20th in EPA/pass allowed and 2nd in EPA/rush allowed. The Longhorns are undoubtedly a top defense in college football. Mississippi State's offense is efficient when running the ball, but not so much in the air. Texas' offense has been anemic to date, and I don't see Mississippi St. producing any explosiveness against this Longhorn defense.

Best Bet: Texas Longhorns @ Mississippi State Bulldogs u47.5 (-115)


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GEORGIA SOUTHERN VS. ARKANSAS STATE BEST BET

GASO @ ARST Odds

Georgia Southern has an advantage on the ground in this matchup. GASO is 26th in EPA/rush, while Arkansas St.'s defense is 80th in EPA/rush allowed. GASO's balanced attack should allow them to use this advantage often. GASO is also efficient on late downs, ranking 38th in 3rd/4th down success rate while Arkansas St.'s late down defense ranks 93rd.

Best Bet: Georgia Southern Eagles Moneyline (+100)


PLACE THIS BET INSTANTLY AT bet365!

COLORADO STATE VS. WYOMING BEST BET

CSU @ WYO Odds

Offensively, both of these teams are a rough watch. These two teams are 68th and 73rd in offensive success rate, and they both love to run the ball. This is a recipe for a low-scoring affair. Defensively, Wyoming is strong on early downs, boasting the 26th-best early-down EPA/play allowed. CSU's defense is strong against the run, and if Wyoming is forced to throw the ball points will be scarce.

Best Bet: Colorado State Rams @ Wyoming Cowboys u47.5 (-106)


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HOUSTON VS. ARIZONA STATE BEST BET

HOU @ ASU Odds

The Houston Cougars have won games because of their strong defense. They rank 22nd in pass defense, and 20th in rush defense this season. While their offense has struggled, they will be facing an Arizona State defense that is horrendous against the run. Houston runs the ball on 52.7% of offensive snaps, so if Houston can dominate the run game and control the clock, this game can be theirs.

Best Bet: Houston Cougars +7.5 (-120)


PLACE THIS BET INSTANTLY AT CAESARS!

I would love to hear from you all. You can interact with me on Threads and best of luck this week!