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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:53 PM

Charles Schwab Challenge Best Golf Prop Picks and Predictions

Golf is back this week with the Charles Schwab Challenge, and while the tournament will have a much different feel to it with all the changes it will have, the goal remains the same for all the golfers in the field; shoot the best four rounds of golf of anyone there.

Charles Schwab Challenge
Betting Resources

But while addressing the futures market is a great place to start your golf handicapping each week, isolating a select few and even making outright plays on them, the bread and butter to growing a bankroll with golf wagering is in the props and the matchups.
 
So, while hitting outright futures is always nice, it's backing  a couple of those guys individually where this week's prop and matchup plays start. However, with how different this tournament will look, feel, and probably play out, relative to what we remember from the PGA Tour, easing back into these plays may be the best approach.

Top PGA Tour
Prop Picks and Predictions

Odds per DraftKings
Subject to Change
T&C's Apply, 21+, Legal US States Only

Best Finishing Position

  • Dustin Johnson (+110) over Brooks Koepka
  • Rickie Fowler (+105) over Patrick Reed
  • Branden Grace (+110) over Ian Poulter (Bet Now at DraftKings)

Ties are considered losses

Fowler and Grace were two of the three names I put out there in the weekly piece in relation to outright prices, so getting both of them at plus money over their respective opponents was a relatively no-brainer. Poulter had a hell of a time here last year in finishing T70 with a +9 score – three of four rounds at Even or worse, and this time off likely hurt Reed more then helped him as he was actually playing some pretty good golf prior to the break. I've at least seen Rickie out there in his match play challenge, and if I'm getting plus money there it's hard to turn down.
 
Similar perspective with backing DJ over Koepka, especially when Koepka's still in recovery mode from his injuries/surgeries. No doubt all this time off has helped Brooks physically, but how sharp his game is remains a whole other question to the table. At that price it's easy to land on the idea that Koepka's golf game probably has a few kinks in it, and back a guy who's still one of the best in the world, and does have a competitive round under his belt in this post-virus, no gallery world.

Nationality Prop
Top English Player

Matthew Fitzpatrick (+225) over Justin Rose (+200), Ian Poulter (+550), Tom Lewis (+750), Matt Wallace (+750) and Danny Willett (+750)
 
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Fitzpatrick didn't really have the best time at Colonial in 2019 either with a +6 final score that was good enough for T64. But the thoughts on Poulter have already been laid out, and outside of maybe Matt Wallace getting hot for the first couple of days, the other three names behind Poulter in the odds are barely worth a second look.
 
Which leaves a sort of head-to-head matchup between Fitzpatrick and Rose in that perspective, with the younger Englishman the slight dog. Rose was only one shot better then Fitzpatrick at this venue a season ago, and in a fresh start like this for everyone, it may be the younger guys who are able to heat up their games more quickly in the coming weeks. In that group of players, Fitzpatrick has the game to outlast them all if he's in sharp form.

To Make/Miss the Cut Prop

Ian Poulter to Miss Cut (+105) 

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Sometimes when you search through the entire betting board in sports like this you can find a few oddities that can act like a bigger picture coming into focus. I don't mean to be picking on Poulter as much as I seemingly am in this piece, but when he's favored over Grace in the head-to-head matchup, and actually trailing Grace in the Make/Miss Cut odds – Grace is -150 on the Yes, while Poulter is -137 on the Yes – it's a number that tends to stick out when you've already formed a wagering style for one guy, and against the other in other bets offered for the Charles Schwab.
 
Poulter's just not a guy that I expect to be anywhere near his best out of the gate, as he's part of that older mid-40's group of players that may be good fades out of the gate based on name recognition alone. Justin Rose was discussed in that light earlier as he turns 40 next month,  and Poulter's already five years beyond that. Rose is also a former winner here, whereas Poulter's a guy that wasn't too fond of his first trip here in a while a season ago.
 
Three of his four rounds were par or worse in this event last year, and if he duplicates those kind of numbers over the first 36 holes this week, this plus money wager should get us to the window.


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