Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:53 AM
Workday Charity Open Prop Picks and Predictions
Last week might have been awful for the outright piece, but the props for the event in Detroit last week were able to save the event thanks to those OK State alums.
Viktor Hovland cashed his Top 20 ticket, Matthew Wolff had no problem making the cut as he nearly won the event, and Kristoffer Ventura didn't let me down either – even after I spelled his name wrong - with a T21 that was well inside his Top 40 price at +275. Ventura is back on the Korn Ferry Tour this week as one of the favorites for the event after that quality showing a week ago. He'll be a name to look for down the road on the PGA Tour.
For now, it's on to the first of two straight weeks at Muirfield Village, and given how tough of a start these props had to start the research, resting on the laurels of last week's successes can't happen for long. This week's plays are more in line with the names from the outright piece with some added cushion for finishing position, but a venture out to a 1st round play also makes the board this week.
Workday Charity Open
- Picks and Predictions
- Betting Odds
- Tour: PGA
- Date: Thursday, July 9, 2020 to Sunday, July 12, 2020
- Venue: Muirfield Village Golf Club
- Location: Dublin, Ohio
- Par-Yardage: 72, 7,392 yards
- TV: Golf Channel, CBS
Top PGA Tour
Prop Picks and Predictions
Odds per DraftKings
Subject to Change
Top 20 Finish – Yes
Bubba Watson +225
In the outright piece earlier in the week I talked about how two straight missed cuts for Bubba Watson has forced his bandwagon in the marketplace to slow down dramatically.
Finding the putting stroke is still going to make or break Watson's week in all likelihood, and on a track where he's spent seven of his past eight entries for the Memorial 'lurking' around Top 20 finishes – finishes of 3rd, 6th, 29th, 33rd, 42nd, 44th, 65th, and a MC – I'll bite that he finds enough putts to drop in the end.
As 20-place cushion at better than 2/1 is where the bulk of the Bubba Watson investment is going this week. Remember, he's still trying to lock up as best position as he can in the FedEx Cup standings with this odd season having the playoffs soon, and he's fallen to 58th after those two MC's in a row. Watson needs to get a paycheck in his hands, and hopefully it's a big enough one where this Top 20 prop can pay out for us.
Top 40 Finish – Yes
Emiliano Grillo +150
Russell Knox +200
Getting greedy and going for a Top 20 on Grillo or Knox at +450 and +650 is always out there for those not opposed to a little risk, but the 40 spots is way more rope to let out here, especially with recent form not being the best in Knox's case.
Knox's course history here is what prompted his mention at those long outright odds at +40000, and oddly enough, a lot of the names around Knox in that same price range (James Hahn, Nate Lashley, Graeme McDowell, Keith Mitchell etc etc) have their Top 40 prices in the +335 range.
That doesn't necessarily speak to this play having plenty of value from one perspective – as in why not take those others at +300 or better if the outright odds are considered equal – but that's also assuming that those outright odds are “correct”. The counter argument would be that Knox should be much lower than +40000 in the outright market, and it's not hard to see which one of those perspectives I view Knox in this week.
Even if +200 isn't loading with “value”, it's still connecting on a +200 wager if it gets there. Not any different than connecting on a +200 ML underdog in any of the major team sports leagues right? Aren't those the wagers everyone loves to brag about hitting?
It's Grillo that deserves more airtime here though, as he's never finished worse than 40th in four starts at the Memorial the past four years, and outside of struggling with his putting still, his overall game is improving each and every week since the restart. It's there in his finishes – MC, MC< 60th, 39th, but that doesn't tell the full story.
Grillo has always struggled with putting so it's not surprising he's routinely losing strokes to the field in that category, but you can say that about a lot of guys in a similar odds range. It's been Grillo's long game that has steadied each and every week, continually gaining strokes on the field in approach and normally off the tee.
He got basically tournament average putting from his flatstick last week in Detroit (-0.09 SG: Putting) and turned that into a T39. Obviously it's not as simple as just getting average putting from Grillo to cash this wager, but at a course he's played well at in the past, now with a slightly easier set-up, it feels like all we do need from Grillo is some average putting relative to the field and a Top 40 here should be assured.
1st Round Groups
Jason Kokrak +105 over Danny Lee +188 and JJ Spaun +300
After finishing 3rd at the Charles Schwab in the PGA restart, two straight missed cuts followed by a week off have made Kokrak a forgotten man of in the markets so to speak. That third place finish sparked a lot of interest in him (from myself included) in the following tournaments, and Kokrak just couldn't maintain any sort of consistency in his game.
Putting his always going to be an issue for Kokrak, and he is similar to Grillo in that sense. Give Kokrak field average putting and he'll be fine, give Kokrak, Kokrak's average putting and he ends up sweating out way more Friday afternoon cut lines than he probably should with his approach game.
It was that approach game that fell off at the Travelers Championship, which is why a week off was probably needed. Who knows how fresh Kokrak ends up feeling coming into this event, but I'm willing to back him in an opening round grouping with two guys who struggle much more in the approach game overall.
On a course where accuracy matters a lot, Kokrak should have a huge edge in this grouping if his game is on, and if a few of his putts drop early, this could end up as a runaway winner.