Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:53 AM
3M Open Prop Picks and Predictions
After the cut line got nice and stretched out to catch quite a few guys at +3 making the cut, the Memorial ended up turning the week into essentially a break even one. Finau was never in doubt of a Top 40 finish after the way he played to lead the tournament after two rounds, and Cameron Champ's struggles in the approach game continued with another missed cut.
Tiger making it to the weekend and Kevin Kisner not accounted for the losses last week, in a tournament that really should have treated the selections a little better. Tiger was far from the only big name I personally had to miss the cut that ended up on +3 after two rounds, and knowing that was where it would end up at worst early on through Friday's afternoon wave was a tough reality to acknowledge.
- Picks and Predictions
- Betting Odds
- Tour: PGA
- Date: Thursday, July 23, 2020 to Sunday, July 26, 2020
- Venue: TPC Twin Cities
- Location: Blaine, Minnesota
- Par-Yardage: 71, 7,430 yards
- TV: Golf Channel, CBS
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Prop Picks and Predictions
Odds per DraftKings
Subject to Change
Most of golf's big names are taking this week off as the Tour returns for the 2nd annual 3M Open in Minnesota, and it does make this prop market a little tougher. Less well-known guys means there is going to be some oversaturation somewhere in the market, and fading some of those popular choices is definitely an option of attack. More line moves will come with these props in general because of the lack of depth in this field, so if you are in love with one of the names at the top across the board, getting down soon is hardly the worst option.
I'm sticking with the general strategy of placement and cut line props again this week to see if the results can't be a little better. They were close to being great a week ago, and hopefully that's the final result this week with these selections.
Top 30 Finish – Yes
Matthew Wolff -110
Never like to back defending champions outright, but Wolff should be able to find enough consistency with the putter at a place he won at to go low enough to be in the conversation on the weekend. He played really well over the weekend at Memorial when the majority of the field struggled, and it was just at the beginning of this month that he came just short with his 2nd place finish in another bomber's paradise event known as the Rocket Mortgage.
It can be all about timing with Wolff's swing though, and if he's not in sync, things can be a struggle. Those starts are fewer and further between for Wolff as he adjusts to Year 2 on Tour, and young tournaments always love to see defending champions play well in subsequent years because their presence can grow the prestige of the event.
Another strong showing would do wonders for Wolff's own career, and for one of the longest guys in the field at a track where length matters and he's the only past winner of the tournament, -110 is a fair price for that 30-place cushion with Wolff this week.
Top 20 Finish – Yes
Luke List +175
List has had trouble putting two strong results together since the restart, but when his game is on, it's only ever really been Top 20 worthy. He did have a win on the Korn Ferry Tour six weeks ago, but if you include that as one of his last six professional starts, List has three missed cuts, a win, a 10th and a 21st. The 10th came last week at Jack's place, so there is some form there, and after missing the cut here last year, I'm not sure this course is capable of getting List again with his bomber-type skills.
Consistency and putting are what it comes down to with List, and if he's got one, you can live without the other and still have a shot at this +175 cashing this week. He's got to have at least one working though, otherwise it may be one of those shorter weeks for List again.
To Make Cut – No
Max Homa +125
Speaking of short week candidates in Minnesota, Max Homa's name has to at least come up. Homa's missed the cut in four of five starts since the restart and for the most part as just done a bit of everything just a little bit sub-standard. Putting has never been his strong point but it's been in the negatives in Strokes Gained for each of those five outings, and he was one who couldn't keep up with the low pace needed here last year to play all four days.
It's the recent form that's concerning for an event like this where the cut line could likely sniff a handful under par. The numbers Homa has been putting up since returning suggest the layoff took part of Homa's game with it as well, and while he should be priced where he's at in this type of field, I'm not sure how you could have any faith he's flipped the switch on his game enough to go low enough in the two-day sprint for a pay check. Plus money on a guy that's far from playing well and didn't exactly torch a torch-able course a year ago is a bet I'll have no problem making quite often.