Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 14:05 PM
At the Gate - Saturday
Three-year-olds are in the spotlight this afternoon with the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, the lone Derby points race and the San Vicente (G3) featuring a promising Bob Baffert runner in Ax Man.
In New York a field of seven three-year-olds will line up in the $150,000 Jimmy Winkfield at seven furlongs on the main track.
I doubt any of the seven will make it one of the Triple Crown races, with only A Different Style (7-2) a stakes winner, taking the J.F. Lewis at Laurel park last November.
The 2-1 morning line favorite is Devine Entry, who ran second in the Heft at Laurel Park going seven furlongs in his last outing. He was eight lengths clear of the rest of the field in the effort.
The second choice on the morning line at 5-2 is the Mike Maker trained California Night, who took the field gate to wire in his debut at Aqueduct over a wet track.
My Best Plays Multi Track Report for Saturday includes my strongest plays from Aqueduct and Tampa Bay Downs including the Sam F. Davis as well as my analysis of the San Vicente from Santa Anita.
To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here.
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md $40,000 (12:50 ET)
5 Purrageous Dyna 5-1
3 My Girl Annie 1-2
1 Forever Rising 7-2
2 Madeline's Hope 8-1
Analysis: Purrageous Dyna has the best shot of beating the imposing chalk in here. The filly has shown some improvement in each if her three starts, last out no match for a 10 1/2 length winner in a runner up finish in her first start against state breds going long on turf. She ran second on the main track at Philly two back against open $30,000 foes. She gets a jock upgrade here from the bug to Davis and pedigree wise seems better suited for the main track.
My Girl Annie finished evenly in a third-place finish last out in her first start off a nine-month layoff. She drops in for a tag here for the Brown barn that is 43% winners (with a +ROI) dropping runners form maiden special to maiden claiming. A repeat of her last looks good enough to beat this weak group.
WIN: #5 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 1,3,5
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 The Jimmy Winkfield (4:35 ET)
4 A Different Style 7-2
2 Jumpmaster 6-1
3 Devine Entry 2-1
6 California Night 5-2
Analysis: A Different Style dueled for the early lead through sharp fractions and weakened in the stretch to finish fourth last out in the Heft at Laurel Park. The colt won the JF Lewis over that surface two back at six furlongs. The Servis trainee owns solid early and mid pace numbers and looking for this guy to bounce back with a better effort here. The $160,000 Ocala purchase is out of the stakes winner Right to Rule ($137,217). If he runs back to his numbers two and three back he fits well in this spot.
Jumpmaster broke his maiden last out at Philly in a sharp effort. The runner up and fourth place finisher came out of that race to graduate next out. The colt ran second two back in the restricted Esler at Laurel park behind repeat winner Whirlin Curlin, who came back to win the Maryland Juvenile Futurity in his next outing on Dec. 9. He looks as if he can handle the extra furlong and should get a good tracking trip sitting just off the pace.
WIN: #4 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,3,4,6
TRI: 2,4 / 2,3,4,6 / 2,3,4,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Tampa Bay Downs:
TAM Race 9 The Endeavour G3 (4:20 ET)
7 La Coronel 2-1
2 Dona Bruja 9-5
3 Westit 5-1
1 Truly Together 6-1
Analysis: La Coronel makes her first start since wiring the field in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1) at the fall Keeneland meeting, earning a career top speed fig. The Casse barn is 17% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. She owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and there is not much early zip in this spot.
Dona Bruja is making her first start since landing fourth in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland last fall. The trip was her first career start where she missed an exacta finish. She won her first two starts in the U.S., taking the Mint Julep (G3) and Modesty (G3), and was only beaten a half-length by Dacia in a deadheat second in the Beverly D. (G1). The mare picks up Ortiz and has been working sharply for her '18 debut.
WIN: #7 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 1,2,3,7
TRI: 2,7 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,7,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:
SA Race 6 The San Vicente G2 (2:30 PT)
1 Ax Man 6-5
2 Mr. Jagermeister 6-1
4 All Out Blitz 7-2
6 Kris' Rocket Kat 4-1
Analysis: Ax Man dueled for the early led and drew away in the stretch to an impressive victory in his debut, winning by 9 1/2 lengths. This guy as the pedigree, out of the stakes winner Shameful ($241,135) who has dropped seven other winners and four are stakes winners, top earner Indian Blessing ($2.99 million). Baffert is playing catch up if he wants to get this guy on the Derby trail, but a big win here will set him up for a try in the San Felipe (G2) next month.
Mr. Jaggermeister actually owns a higher BRIS fig (94) to the chalk in here (91) although the Beyers tell a different story (97 for our top pick, 90 for this guy). He ran second last out in the Shakopee Juvenile at Canterbury, the winner Amy's Challenge coming back to win the Dixie Belle at Oaklawn Park in her next start on Jan. 20. If our top pick gets bet too hard this gal will offer some value if let go near her 6-1 .
WIN: #1 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4
TRI: no play
R1: #2 Madeline’s Hope 8-1
R4: #3 Hey Jabber Jaw 15-1
R9: #3 Slam Chowder 8-1
Good luck today!