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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Friday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read
After a four day break we are back in action at Aqueduct on Friday, and we are either going to have the chalkiest card of the year, or we could see the toteboard light up.

I can’t remember a card at the Big A with so many short-priced morning line favorites. The morning line odds of the favorites are 2-5, 4-5, 6-5, 1-1, 4-5, 3-1, 7-5, 7-5 and 8-5.

That 3-1 morning line favorite comes in the sixth race and it is the Todd Pletcher first timer Camorra who could actually be a much shorter price.

Now perhaps there is some good news. The morning line chalk is my top pick in just three of the nine races, so we could still see some decent payoffs.

Things get better on Saturday and we will venture off to Fair Grounds for the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) where a field of 10 will line up looking for a share of the 50-20-10-5 Derby points up for grabs.

It is not the deepest field of Kentucky Derby hopefuls we will see over the next few weeks, but the race has had an impact on the Run for the Roses.

Gun Runner (third in 2016), Commanding Curve (second in 2014), Golden Soul (second in 2013), Revolutionary (third in 2013), Nehro (second in 2011) and Mucho Macho Man (third in 2011) have all been right in the mix on the first Saturday of May.

Southwest (G3) winner My Boy Jack is the 5-2 morning line favorite. The Desomeaux brothers (Keith the trainer and Kent the jockey) will team up again after pulling off the upset in the Southwest at 9-1.

The obvious spot for the colt would have been the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park, but the Dersormueax brothers are Louisiana breds and they would love to win this big race in their back yard.

I will have selections and analysis for the race in Saturday’s column.

To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Friday click here .

Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $10,000 (1:20 ET)
#2 Dean's Ticket 5-2
#6 Doinwhatshelikes 2-5
#3 Wisdom of Oz 10-1
#5 Over My Head 12-1

Analysis: Dean's Ticket appears to have the best shot of beating the chalk here. Last out the mare tracked the early pace and weakened late to finish third for this tag. The winner Arewehavingfunyet came back to beat $16,000 claimers in her next outing on March 16. She has a pair of wins and thirds in six trips over wet tracks and with all that snow and rain falling on Wednesday there still may be some moisture in the racing surface today.

Doinwhatshelikes chased the early pace and finished gamely in a runner up finish last out in the slop at this tag in her first go off the claim by the RRod barn. She owns the top last out speed fig and is a six-time winner. She is 0 for 8 on wet track and is going to be a very short price.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 2,3,6
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 7 OClm $80,000N1X (4:25 ET)
#3 Cryinthemoonlight 5-1
#6 My Roxy Girl 5-2
#7 Letmetakethiscall 7-5
#4 My Lightnin Strike 8-1

Analysis: Cryinthemoonlight caught a sloppy track last out and sent the early fractions while down along a deep rail and weakened to finish fourth. The runner up Salty Smile came back to beat $32,000 non-winners of two by 11 lengths in her next outing. Two back our top pick pressed the early pace and weakened to finish third in the state bred East View which was her first start against winners. Franco takes over and has been hot and the cut back to 6 1/2 furlongs suits her.

My Roxy Girl stalked the early pace came with a five-wide bid and battle don gamely to miss winning the state bred Franklin Square by a neck. She beat $50,000 starter allowance foes two back going seven furlongs over a wet track. It took her eight tries to break her maiden but she has beaten winners twice in four tries. She fits here and has shown she can handle a wet track.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 3,6 / 3,4,6,7
TRI: 3,6 / 3,4,6,7 / 3,4,5,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #3 Wisdom of Oz 10-1
R1: #5 Over My Head 12-1
R6: #2 Starlite Mission 10-1
R7: #4 My Lightnin Strike 8-1
R9: #2 Netti’s Legacy 15-1

Good luck today!

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