At the Gate – SaturdayMother Nature has wreaked havoc on the Belmont Park fall meeting and she is making an appearance on Saturday with rain and wind gusts that might reach 50 miles per hour.
Instead of messing with the card which might get canceled anyway, I am heading out to Keeneland and Santa Anita for today’s action.
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my eight strongest plays from the two tracks.
The feature on the closing day of the Keenealnd meeting is the $200,000 Fayette (G2) at nine furlongs on the main track which might be wet as there is some rain in the forecast and the track was already sloppy on Friday.
Prime Attraction is the 2-1 morning line favorite. The five-year-old ships in from the west coast for the James Cassidy barn and was fourth in the Awesome Again (G10 inn his last outing.
Hofburg (5-2) may end up the betting favorite. He won the restricted Curlin in the slop back in July at Saratoga and was fourth in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), 10 ¼ lengths behind the winner McKinzie, one of the major contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) next Saturday.
Santa Anita has a god card on tap the feature is the $100,000 Autumn Miss (G3) which drew a full field of 14 three-year-old fillies that will go one mile on turf.
The Neil Drysdale trained Toinette is the 9-5 morning line favorite but she is coming back off a minor injury and a 3 ½ month break and I’ll try to bet her for the top spot.
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To purchase my Best Plays Report for Saturday click here.
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:
KEE Race 9 The Fayette G2 (5:30 ET)
#5 Leofric 5-2
#6 Hofburg 5-2
#1 Prime Attraction 2-1
#3 Hence 10-1
Analysis: Leofric exits the Woodward (G1) at the Spa where the Cox trainee dueled for the early lead and battled on gamely until late in a third-place finish, beaten two lengths at 19-1 behind Classic bound Yoshida. The racing strip that day was playing to outside stalkers and closers. He has won 6 of his 12 races, picking up his first stakes win two back at Mountaineer Park. He has a strong off track pedigree and ran well in a runner up finish in the Razorback 'Cap (G3) at Oaklawn Park in the mud back in February. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and gets the jump on Hofburg who figures to be the favorite.
Hofburg ran big winning the restricted Curlin two back in the slop at the Spa earning a career top speed fig. He came back two months later and did not fire his best in a fourth in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and did not appear to care much for the racing surface. he has shown he can handle a wet track and we not have seen the best out of this Mott trainee yet. The 5-2 seems fair but have a hunch this guy is going to get bet.
WIN: #5 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 1,3,5,6
TRI: 5,6 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,3,5,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:
SA Race 10 The Autumn Miss G3 (4:40 PT)
#4 Ms Bad Behavior 4-1
#5 Toinette 9-5
#6 Tesora 6-1
#9 Steak of Luck 10-1
Analysis: Ms Bad Behavior stretches out from 6 1/2 on the downhill where she came with a good late rally to finish third in the Unzip Me, beaten 1 1/4 lengths. Her last go at a mile came three back in the San Clemente (G2) where she tracked the early pace and finished gamely in a third-place finish, beaten a half-length. She never runs a bad one and has landed in the exacta in all five of her trips over the turf here. Her last win came here in the China Doll at a mile back in March. She fits well in this spot her for Baltas who has two other runners in here, but they are stuck in the outside posts.
Toinette returns off a 3 1/2 month break her for the Drysdale barn. She made a good late rally to get up and win the Edgewood (G3) two back in her debut stakes. She prompted the early pace and faded to finish ninth in the Belmont Oaks (G1) last out and came out of a race with a minor injury according to her conditioner. The barn is 20% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff. She still has a ton of upside but may end up a light price here.
WIN: #4 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 4,5,6,9
TRI: 4,5 / 4,5,6,9 / 4,5,6,9,13
Good luck today!
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