Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:00 AM
At the Gate - Saturday
We have a pair of Grade 1 races at Los Alamitos this afternoon and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has a strong hand in both.
Baffert is winning at an insane 56% clip with juveniles dating back six months, and it’s not a small sample. He has started 52 two-year-olds and has won with 29 of them. A couple of those losses are because he had two entered in the same.
He could sweep the two stakes today and his win percentage with juveniles could go down.
In the $300,000 Los Alamitos (G1) Baffert starts the 6-5 morning line favorite Improbable, who was a smart looking winner in the Street Sense at Churchill Downs in his last outing.
His back up is Mucho Gusto, who won the Bob Hope (G3) in gate to wire fashion at Del Mar in his stakes debut.
In the $300,000 Starlet (G1) he sends out the two betting favorites. American Pharoah’s half sister Chasing Yesterday is the 9-5 morning line favorite. The filly is coming off a gate to wire score in the Desi Arnaz at Del Mar going seven furlongs.
Mother Mother is the 2-1 second choice and coming off a win in the Rags to Riches at Churchill Downs at a mile.
The feature at the Big A this afternoon is the $100,000 Garland of Roses, drawing a field of five fillies and mares that go six furlongs on the main track.
Vertical Oak is the even money favorite on the morning line. The Steve Asmussen trainee won the Dream Supreme at Churchill Downs in her last start.
Her main foes are Pumpkin Pie winner Sower (3-1) and Dream Pauline (5-2), who was third in the Dream Supreme at Churchill Downs in her most recent start.
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my eight strongest plays from Aqueduct and Los Alamitos.
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Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md $25,000 (12:20 ET
#7 Fiveinthemorning 6-1
#10 Ramblin' Ma'am 5-1
#5 Promise Me Roses 7-2
#4 Zecha 5-2
Analysis: Fiveinthemorning came off a 2 1/2 month break last out at the $40,000 level, stalked the early pace and coming up short in the stretch in a third-place finish in a race taken off the turf. The filly was beaten just a neck two back at the Spa and was beaten just a nose four back on turf at Belmont Park. The Kimmel trainee has not been on a wet track but has a decent enough off-track pedigree, out of a Judge T C mare that has dropped seven other foals to race with six winners. Decent value if she goes off near her 6-1 morning line in a wide-open race.
Ramblin' Ma'am pressed the early pace and battled on gamely in a runner up finish last out, beaten 3/4 of a length for the top spot at this level. She did not show much in her first two starts at big prices but has been on the gradual improve for the Summers barn, going from fourth to third to second last out with improving numbers. She is by Posse out of a Quiet American mare who has dropped three winners.
WIN: #7 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 7,10 / 4,5,7,10
TRI: 7,10 / 4,5,7,10 / 2,4,5,7,10
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 Alw $70,000N1X (3:47 ET)
#7 Our Circle of Love 3-1
#1 Pauseforthecause 2-1
#6 Big Birthday 6-1
#2 Bluegrass Jamboree 4-1
Analysis: Our Circle of Love dueled for the early lead and drew off to break her maiden last out by 8 1/2 lengths in her first trip over the main track here. Two back she ran second sandwiched between a pair of next out winners. The winner Golden Award came back to beat Alw-1 foes in her next start on Nov. 7 at Churchill Downs. She earned the top last out speed fig, eight points better than her previous high. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers and even with a slight regression off her best she still can be in the mix in this spot.
Pauseforthecause tracked the early pace, battled with a couple of foes and took over the lead and battled on gamely coming up a length short in a third-place finish in the state bred Iroquois. The runner up and seventh place finishers came out of the race to graduate next out. She passed her first two state bred conditions two and three back with plenty left in the tank. This looks like a good spot for the McLaughlin trainee.
WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,2,6,7
TRI: 1,7 / 1,2,6,7 / 1,2,5,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:
LRC Race 7 The Starlet G1 (3:28 PT)
#2 Mother Mother 2-1
#6 Chasing Yesterday 9-5
#1 Vibrance 5-2
#4 Oxy Lady 5-1
Analysis: Mother Mother may end up a slightly better price than her stablemate Chasing Yesterday as Baffert has a strong one-two punch here. The Hall of Fame trainer has been lights out in juvenile races, winning 29 with 52 starters (56% with a +ROI) just over the last six months. Our top pick dueled for the early lead and drew clear to win the Rags to Riches going a one turn mile at Churchill Downs last out in her third career start. Her lone loss came two back in the Del Mar Debutante (G1) in her stakes debut where she ran second to Bellafina. That filly came back to win Chandelier (G1) in her next start and then was fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). She owns a good edge in early and mid pace numbers.
Chasing Yesterday is coming off a win in the Desi Arnaz at Del mar going seven furlongs and makes her two-turn debut. She has plenty of pedigree to handle the extra ground, by Tapit out of a Yankee Gentleman mare that has dropped four other winners including Triple Crown winner American Pharoah ($8.6 million). She looks talented, but I have to wonder with this gal is just now making her first start going a route of ground?
Vibrance tracked the early pace and did not have enough punch left in the stretch in a third-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, beaten six lengths for the top spot at 35-1. She was no match for Bellafina in a runner up finish in the Chandelier two back which was her stakes debut. She is a half to a couple of nice runners in Lideris ($373,834) and Cinder Block ($216,505).
WIN: #2 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 1,2,6
TRI: no play
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R3: #5 Shelley Ann 8-1
R3: #7 Cheatham Hill 10-1
R4: #10 Overland 10-1
R4: #6 Alphatest 8-1
R5: #4 Tiglalu 12-1
R9: #7 Valmont 12-1
Good luck today!