Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:00 AM
At the Gate - Thursday
We are just five days away from Christmas and on Thursday afternoon we have a chance of making things just a bit merrier with a Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct of $175,909.
With a three-day carryover, the pool may grow to $1 million and the six-race sequence looks very hittable, meaning a lot of us may be sharing the dough, hopefully.
The Pick 3 starts early with just eight races carded, the opening leg coming in the third race, a $50,000 starter allowance race. Seven go to the post with Missile Bomb looking like a legit favorite as the 2-1 morning line favorite.
The fourth race is a state bred first level allowance race which drew a field of eight. Discreet Mission is the 5-2 morning line favorite. He does not stand out, with Local Counsel (3-1), New York Hero (4-1) and Carthon (9-2) all worth a look.
Maidens go nine furlongs in the fifth race with the Todd Pletcher trained Moretti the 7-5 morning line favorite. Lisbon (9-2) and Motagally (9-2) may end up offering more value.
Another $50,000 starter allowance in the sixth race with nine going including a Flying P Stable entry so there are eight betting interests. Mo Flash (4-1) is coming off a sharp win against $40,000 claimers and Smiles From Sadie (7-2) ran second at the level in her last outing.
The seventh race is a first level state bred allowance race and one of the more wide-open races on the card. Playthatfunnymusic (8-1) looks like decent value. Three to Thirteen (3-1) is coming off a third-place finish and Big Thicket (4-1) is coming off a win at Finger Lakes. Four of the nine last raced at Finger Lakes.
The finale on Thursday is a $25,000 claimer for non-winners of two lifetime. A field of 10 go to the gate with both Proximate to Power (4-1) and D’ambrosio (5-2) looking logical. A longshot to toss in if you have the budge is Latin Love Bug, who broke his maiden last out and is 15-1 on the morning line.
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Aqueduct daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.
To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Thursday click here.
Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 OClm $62,500N2X (12:50 ET)
4 Estilo Femenino 1-1
5 Short Kakes 7-2
2 Playinwiththeboys 9-5
1 Hailey's Flip 6-1
Analysis: Estilo Femenino came off a three month break last out at Laurel Park where the filly ran a good second in the Safely Kept over a wet track going seven furlongs. The cut back to six furlongs should suit this gal. She passed her first allowance condition at the distance and then was a good second in the Sugarloaf Key 'Cap. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers, and this looks like a good spot on the class drop for Asmussen.
Short Kakes makes her first start since June where she checked in sixth on turf at this level at Belmont Park in a key race. She has done some of her best work on the main track here including winning the Xtra Heat back in March. Decent looking works for her return for the Cannizzo barn that is 24% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff.
WIN: #4 to win at 6-5 or better.
EX: 4 / 2,5
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 7 Alw $64,000N1X (3:47 ET)
3 Playthatfunnymusic 8-1
1 Three to Thirteen 3-1
4 Big Thicket 4-1
7 Phone Funky Munky 6-1
Analysis: Playthatfunnymusic was claimed by the Englehart barn for just $12,500 four back and the gelding has won two and ran second in two other trips for the barn. Last out at Finger Lakes he headed for home with the lead but got run down against state bred allowance foes in the mud. The winner Dublinthepleasure came back to win on Nov. 13 at Finger Lakes against state bred optional claimers. The cut back to a one turn mile should suit him and the 8-1 morning line looks fair enough.
Three to Thirteen prompted the early pace and weakened to finish third here at this level last out. The Breen trainee owns solid early and mid pace numbers and three back this guy earned a fig beating $16,000 non-winners of three at Laurel park at a mile that would be good enough to handle this group. Toss the turf try two back and his form looks better.
WIN: #3 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,4,7
TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,4,7 / 1,2,3,4,7
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R7: #3 Playthatfunnymusic 8-1
R8: #9 Latin Love Bug 15-1
R9: #7 Unsullied 8-1
Good luck today!