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Jan 12, 2019

At the Gate - Sunday

It was another profitable day at Aqueduct on Saturday and sometimes it is better to be lucky than good.
 
In the feature, the Say Florida Sandy I thought we had a good shot of beating the chalk Gold for the King, who ended up going off at 6-5.
 
I landed on Honor Up as my top pick and Syndergaard as my second choice. They were one-two heading for home but the chalk just had a really rough trip.
 
Gold for the King broke inward coming out of the gate brushing a foe, jockey Junior Alvarado had to check him while having to steady early off the heels of a rival, and then came with a four-wide bid.
 
Then the fun really started as he got caught in behind runners and I could tell he was loaded. A small seam and he would bust through and run right by my top two picks.
 
He finally got through very late and by then he did not have enough punch and had to settle for third. My top pick Honor Up returned $7.10 and topped a $2 exacta that paid $55.00 and the cold $1 trifecta with the chalk paid $64.00.
 
After we had five winners on top on the eight-race card on Friday at the Big A we ended up with three on top on the nine-race card yesterday for a small profit.
 
At Gulfstream Park we got our top pick Doctor Mounty home first in the Tropical Turf (G3) returning $12.20 but missed the exacta. In the Marshua River (G3) my second choice Bellavais ($6.60) got the job done and we had the recommended exacta for $41.40 and trifecta for $80.50.
 
My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my eight strongest plays from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park.
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Aqueduct daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.
 
To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here.
 
Here is the second race (the opener looks too chalky) from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
 
AQU Race 2 OClm $62,500N2X (1:22 ET)
#4 Regal Quality   9-2
#1 Stan the Man   1-1
#6 Weather Wiz   2-1
#2 Tusk   6-1
 
Analysis: Regal Quality tracked the early pace and could not get by the winner in the stretch in a runner up finish, He caught a racing strip that was kind to horse on or near the lead that day. The gelding was claimed out of the race by the Rice barn that is 28% winners first off the claim. He passed his first allowance condition at Laurel Park going a mile and has plenty of pedigree to handle nine furlongs. The barn is 30% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route. Looks like this guy will be a decent price in this spot.
 
Stan the Man was in over his head last out in the Cigar Mile (G1) where he checked in sixth of eight at 51-1. He was a sharp winner versus Alw-1 foes two back here at seven furlongs and beat $50,000 starter allowance foes at a mile three back in the slop. He has now landed in the exacta in 6 of 8 trips over the main track here. Only real knock is the puny price.
 
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,6
TRI: no play
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
 
AQU Race 7 The Rego Park (3:58 ET)
#10 Bustin to Be Loved   20-1
#2 Blindwillie McTell   9-5
#9 Just Right   7-2
#4 Kadens Courage   8-1
 
Analysis: Bustin to Be Loved showed some ability in his first two starts, breaking his maiden in his debut and then running a good third in the state bred Funny Cide behind repeat winner Dugout in his first start against winners. He was beaten double digit lengths in his last two starts, both on wet tracks. Since his last outing he has posted three bullet works for Contessa who is only winning at a 7% clip at the meeting but 20 of his 46 starters have landed in the money. The colt looks as if he is going to bounce back here and he is going to be a generous price.
 
Blindwillie McTell was a good second in his debut and then broke his maiden winning a NY Stallion Series race last out in the slop at six furlongs. The gelding earned a solid figure last out and owns solid early and mid pace numbers. He looks tough here for the Rice barn but may end up a short price.
 
Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 12-1 or better.
EX: 2,10 / 2,4,9,10
TRI: 2,10 / 2,4,9,10 / 2,4,6,9,10
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
 
GP Race 8 Md Sp Wt (3:39 ET)
#9 Lady Grace    9-5
#6 Lady Munnings   12-1
#8 Catch a Thrill   4-1
#4 East and Union   5-1
 
Analysis: Lady Grace came up the inside with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out in her first trip over the turf here. Two back at the Big A she was beaten just a neck in a game effort. The beaten favorite in her last pair and her price is going to be light again here. but she should be able to handle this group. She is out of a Beau Genius mare that has dropped four winners and three have won on turf.
 
Lady Munnings debuts for the Sheppard barn that is 11% winners (with a +ROI) with first timers dating back five years. This gal is out of a stakes placed Consolidator mare that has dropped three winners including one turf winner, top earner stakes winner Downhill Racer ($112,136). This gal is working as if she has some ability and the 12-1 morning line looks generous.
 
Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 6,9 / 4,6,8,9
TRI: 6,9 / 4,6,8,9 / 1,4,6,8,9
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Aqueduct
R1: #4 Deft   12-1
R4: #5 Center City   10-1
R7: #10 Bustin to Be Loved   20-1
R7: #4 Kadens Courage   8-1
R8: #10 There Goes Jose   12-1
 
Good luck today!

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