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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:59 PM

At the Gate - Wednesday

The dust has cleared after three key Kentucky Derby preps last Saturday and now we have Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert with the three top betting choices for the Run for the Roses.

Game Winner has continued to be the early Derby favorite at +600 despite losing his two starts this year. He was second in the Rebel (G2), which was split into two divisions and on Saturday was the runner up in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

Improbable is the second choice at [...] in early Kentucky Derby wagering at +800, and he makes his final prep on Saturday in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park.




The colt was second in the Rebel in his three-year-old debut. The pressure is on this colt as he sits in 25th on the Road to the Kentucky Derby points standings. A first or a second and he draws into the field, or a third most likely would be enough to stamp his ticket to Louisville.

Roadster won the Santa Anita Derby over his more highly regarded stablemate and earned 100 points for the win, locking himself a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby field. The colt has dropped to +1000, which is good for co-third choice with Maximum Security.

The Arkansas Derby is lining up to be an interesting race on Saturday. In addition to Improbable, there are several other top contenders including both Rebel winners Omaha Beach and Long Range Toddy and Country House, who was fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his last start.

We will take a closer look at the race later in the week. The entire field comes out on Wednesday afternoon.

We are back to racing at the Big A five days a week!

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Aqueduct daily and Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Wednesday click here .

Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:30 ET)
#4 Orbed 7-5
#5 Skywriting 6-1
#1 Final Say 2-1
#2 Samaronti 3-1

Analysis: Orbed chased the early pace and could not get to the winner in the stretch in a runner up finish last out in his first start off a nine-month layoff. He does not even need to move forward off that effort in the slop to beat this group. He ran second in two of his starts last year and looks tough in this spot as the chalk. The RRod barn is 32% winners (with a +ROI) with runners making their second start off a +180-day layoff.

Skywriting was bumped coming out of the gate in his debut, was sent up to track the early pace and weakened in the stretch to finish fifth at Gulfstream Park. he did not take any action, sent off at 28-1 in a field of nine. He faces easier here for the Jerkens barn that is 29% winners (with a +ROI) with second out maidens. The $425,000 purchase is the first foal to race out of a stakes placed Sky Mesa mare. He is bred to handle the added ground.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 4 / 1,5
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 OClm $75,000N1X (5:15 ET)
#5 Multi Strategy 9-2
#3 Beautiful Lover 7-5
#6 Makeme Dream 5-2
#2 Western Curl 5-1

Analysis: Multi Strategy is one of two in here sent out by the Chad Brown barn and likely the higher price. The filly was not much of a threat in the Wait a While at Gulfstream Park last out in an eighth-place finish. It was her first start against winners after breaking her maiden on good ground at Belmont Park two back in her third career start. She returns here off a four month break for a barn that is 29% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff. This gal has nice pedigree, out of the stakes winner Freefourrcaing ($223,415) who has dropped seven winners including two other turf winners and a pair of stakes winners, top earner Free Brave ($334,421).

Beautiful Lover was a good looking maiden winner against Florida breds last out in her second career start, drawing off to win by 4 1/4 lengths. A pair have come out of the race to graduate next out and the runner up ran second next out. Her two speed figs are tops in this field. She is out of a Quiet American mare that has dropped six other winners including $1 million earner Zivo who as best going long on dirt.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 2,3,5,6
TRI: 3,5 / 2,3,5,6 / 1,2,3,5,6

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R4: #3 Third Card Down 12-1
R5: #4 Five Star Bunt 8-1
R6: #8 J J Jen 15-1
R7: #9 Viradia 8-1

Good luck today!

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