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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:59 PM

At the Gate - Thursday

The early Pick 5 looks quite hittable this afternoon at Aqueduct, but it could turn into a Pick 4 if Pecan Pattie win the third race on the card.

The Danny Gargan trainee is dropping out of a first level allowance race into $35,000 non-winners of two and was pegged at 1-5 on the morning line, the shortest price I have seen at the Big A in quite some time.

Is there any shot of beating the filly? I’ll give it a go with Rattlesnake Bite, who was sixth on turf against $30,000 non-winners of two and should appreciate the return to the main track. She is 5-1 on the morning line.

There are not too many live longshots in the sequence but there is a couple of favorites we have a shot of beating.

Wicked Trick is the 2-1 favorite in the fifth race, the final leg of the sequence and looks as if we might be able to beat him with either Letterman (4-1) or Dreamaster (7-2).

Golden Vale (8-5) in the second race and County Court (2-1) in the third race look like legit favorites but I may go two or three deep on at least a few of my tickets.

All the Road to the Kentucky Derby points races are in the books but coming up on Saturday we do have one race that could impact the Triple Crown. The $125,000 Federico Tesio at Laurel Park may produce a starter or two for the Preakness Stakes (G1).

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Aqueduct daily, Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday and my Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby Day Reports.

To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Thursday click here .

Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md $50,000 (1:30 ET)
#6 It's a Shaw Thing 7-2
#1 Xanthique 2-1
#5 Bizness Beauty 9-2
#3 Queen Kahen 3-1

Analysis: It's a Shaw Thing caught a sloppy track last out at this tag where the filly set the early fractions and weakened to finish fourth. She caught a racing strip that was playing to outside stalkers and closers that day. She looks headed in the right direction form wise and she ran into repeat winners in two of her first three career starts. The Barker trainee is out of the stakes winner Brenda's Slew ($78,368) who has dropped two winners. She should get the job done here.

Xanthique caught sloppy tracks in both starts, both runner up finishes. She was s13 lengths back of the winner in her debut and showed improvement second out. She does not need to move forward much on that effort to be a threat here. Looks as if our top pick is likely going to offer a bit more value for the top spot.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,5,6
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 Alw $66,000N1X (5:15 ET)
#7 Binkster 8-1
#2 Holey Matrimony 2-1
#3 Roseboro 5-2
#1 Leap to Glory 6-1

Analysis: Binkster cuts back from a mile where last out the gelding set the early fractions and tire to finish fifth with the top pair in the ace coming back to win next out. He wired the field in the mud two back against $25,000 non-winners of three in his first go off a seven-month layoff. He makes his third start off the bench here and looking for this guy to bounce back with a better effort here.

Holey Matrimony was a good looking maiden winner in his debut for the Gullo barn, drawing off to win by 5 1/2 lengths at 9-2 in a field of five. The Beyer came back at 90, tops in here but looking at his last out BRIS it is the second best behind Wushu Warrior. The colt earned solid early and mid pace numbers in that outing and should get another good trip sitting just off the pace. He gets a jock upgrade to Irad but worried about how low his price may go.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 1,2,3,7
TRI: 2,7 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,4,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R2: #1 Tayler’s the Boss 8-1
R4: #4 Carlisle Belle 8-1
R4: #1 Solitary Gem 15-1
R6: #6 Moo Lah 10-1
R8: #7 Binkster 8-1
R9: #11 Big Paddy Brown 8-1
R9: #6 Noble Cause 10-1

Good luck today!

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