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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Sunday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
The field sizes at Belmont Park seem to be shrinking by the day, but on a positive note Saratoga is in the very near future.
 
Despite the short fields the early Pick 5 is still the wager to focus on. Yesterday we had fields of 5-5-7-7-8, but the wager still ended up paying nicely.
 
My third choice Rad Right Hand won the opener at $5.00, the slight favorite. Then my top pick won the next three races, paying $3.70, $8.40 and $12.40. We beat chalks in the third and fourth legs.
 
In the fifth race my second choice Rhode Island got the job done as the 9-5 favorite. So, we had all logical contenders and we beat 2-5 chalk in the fourth race.
 
The $1 Pick 5 returned $1,209.50.
 
We get value with the low takeout and if we are able to beat just a couple of favorites in the sequence, the payoff is very generous.
 
Without the Pick 5 and the Pick 4’s it would be very difficult to find good betting opportunities with these short fields.
 
However, mark July 11 on your calendar. It is opening day at Saratoga.
 
My Best Plays for Saturday includes my 10 strongest plays from Belmont Park, Gulfstream Park and Woodbine.
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Belmont Park/Saratoga daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.
 
To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here.
 
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
 
BEL Race 1 Clm $25,000 (1:30 ET)
#3 Trixie's Time   6-1
#2 Mamma Dee   8-5
#1 Zabava / 1a Painted Image   9-5
#6 Sundrenched   3-1
 
Analysis: Trixie's Time set the early fractions and weakened in the stretch to finish fourth last out against $40,000 claimers going a mile over good ground. She was making her first start after shipping up from Florida and going from Abreu to Miceli who has been sending out live runners this year, the low profile barn hitting at a 30% clip. She gets some firmer ground and a turf course that has been kind to speed this week. Looks like a good spot here as she drops in for $25,000 and there is not an abundance of early zip signed up to go here.
 
Mamma Dee was not a threat last out against $50,000 starter allowance foes and drops in for a tag here for the Rice barn. She graduated for a $50,000 tag two back in her first start off the claim by the barn. She catches an easier spot here but it looks as if our top pick is going to offer more value for the top spot.
 
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 1,2,3
TRI: no play
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
 
BEL Race 6 Alw $40,000s (4:12 ET)
#5 Cardiac Kitten   6-1
#7 Surge Pricing   3-1
#1 Cross Border / 1a Much Trouble   7-2
#8 Tizanoxbow   8-1
 
Analysis: Cardiac Kitten returns off a two-month break and makes his first career start on turf here. The gelding graduated at Turfway Park in his debut on poly and last out beat $40,000 non-winners of two on the main track at Keeneland. He should take to turf. He is by Kitten's Joy out of a Forestry mare that has dropped five other winners and four have won on turf and three are stakes winners including a pair that have earned over $1 million—Bobby's Kitten and Camelot Kitten. The Ward barn is 32% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from dirt to turf. I doubt we see the 6-1 morning line.
 
Surge Pricing stalked the early pace and finished up well to graduate in his debut for a $40,000 tag going six furlongs over good ground. He returns off nearly a two-month break here for Brown. The $185,000 purchase is by Animal Kingdom out of a Fantastic Light mare that has dropped two other turf winners. This guy still appears to have plenty of upside.
 
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 1,5,7,8
TRI: 5,7 / 1,5,7,8 / 1,4,5,7,8
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Ellis Park:
 
ELP Race 9 Md Sp Wt (4:40 CT)
#1 Miss Hanna Jo   7-2
#11 Brie's Lucky Charm   3-1
#13 Rodhwaan   12-1
#5 Street Dazzle   15-1
 
Analysis: Miss Hanna Jo was sixth in her debut last summer in a key race at the Spa and came back off the layoff last out at Keeneland to run a decent third going a mile. The filly pressed the early pace and could not go with the top pair late, beaten 3 3/4 lengths for the top spot. She returns off a two-month break here for former Bill Mott assistant Rodolphe Brisset. The filly has a solid pedigree, by More Than Ready out of the stakes winner Whenthedoveflies ($425,445) who has dropped five winners and four have won on turf, top earner stakes winner Yes I'm Lucky ($259,145).
 
Brie's Lucky Charm stretches back out to a route after checking in third last out going five furlongs on turf at Churchill Downs off a two-month break. Two back going long at Fair Grounds this gal prompted the early pace and battled on gamely in the stretch to get beaten just a neck. The Stall barn is 18% winners moving runners from sprint to route. She is by Mastercraftsman out of a Tale of the Cat mare. She looks primed for a top effort in her third start of the year.
 
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 1,11 / 1,5,11,13
TRI: 1,11 / 1,5,11,13 / 1,5,10,11,13
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Belmont Park
R2: #7 Cape Cod Diva   8-1
R3: #3 Dannie’s Deceiver   8-1
R6: #8 Tiznoxbow   8-1
R7: #2 Runaway Lute   8-1
R8: #2 Honorable Hero   8-1
R8: #8 Thomand Park   12-1
 
Good luck today!

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