Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:57 AM

At the Gate - Thursday

My top pick Control Group scratched out of the Evan Shipman yesterday leaving us with the chalk Mr. Buff who paid just $3.20 but the exacta with the heavy favorite came back at $16.60 who was not terrible.

We whiffed in the Mahony with my fourth choice Archidust getting the job done. The opening race was a steeplechase, the Mrs. Ogden Phipps where my top pick was scratched.

That elevated Market Alley up to my top pick and he paid $20.80 and with my third choice Down Royal the $2 exacta came back at $79.50.

I hope you had it because I usually don’t wager on the jump races and skipped the race myself. Not a great move I guess.

The feature today is the $100,000 Saratoga Dew for New York breds going 1 1/8-miles on the main track. Held Accountable is the 2-1 morning line favorite. The Phil Serpe trainee was third against open second level optional caliemers in her last outing.

We have a big weekend coming up with the Arlington Million (G1) and the $600,000 Beverly D. (G1) at Arlington Park coming up Saturday, both Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races.

At Saratoga on Saturday the winner of the $400,000 Fourstardave Handicap (G1) stamps a ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1).

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Saratoga Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

To purchase my Saratoga Report for Thursday click here.

Here is the opener from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Alw $14,000s (1:00 ET)

1 Cuddle Kitten 8-5

5 Colorincolonel 6-1

6 Stay Fond 2-1

3 Served Cold 8-1


Analysis: Cuddle Kitten pressed the early pace and opening up heading for home, holding on to win by 1 3/4 lengths to beat $12,500 starter allowance foes at Philly. She won at the same level two back in her first start for Navarro. Now she tires nine furlongs for the first time in her career. By Kitten's Joy out of a Smart Strike mare, she has the pedigree to handle the extra ground. She owns a good edge in early and mid pace numbers and will be tough if able to shake loose early.

Colorincolonel raced near the back of the pack early and came with a good late rally to finish third beaten a length last out against $50,000 starter allowance foes at Laurel Park. She won her two previous starts at Thistledown by a combined 16 1/4 lengths. She also has not gone nine furlongs but has the pedigree to handle it and she comes in here in good form.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,5,6
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 8 The Saratoga Dew (4:46 ET)

2 Fetching 7-2

5 Held Accountable 2-1

6 Lucky Move 4-1

1 Out of Orbit 3-1


Analysis: Fetching steps up to face tougher after a game nose win against state bred Alw-1 foes in her second try at the condition. All three of her outings have come on turf and now she tries the main track for the Casse barn that is 20% winners moving runners from turf to dirt. By Afleet Alex out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare, dirt should suit him. Lightly raced he appears to have more upside than most of these and should get some pace to run at.

Held Accountable is back with state breds after a third last out against open Alw-2 optional claimers in the mud here. That effort was her first off a seven-month layoff. This gal won a state bred stake as a juvenile and has a won at nine furlongs, beating open Alw-1 foes three back in a race taken off the turf. The Serpe trainee should be tighter second off the bench.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 2,5,6
TRI: no play

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R1: #3 Served Cold 8-1
R2: #5 Moondance Joy 8-1
R5: #2 Geta Lode of Lucky 8-1
R7: #5 Ready to Escape 8-1
R9: #5 Belgrano 10-1
R10: #11 Coral Legacy 8-1

Good luck today!

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