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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Sunday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
It is closing day at Belmont Park this afternoon, and we close down the meet with three stakes races and a mandatory payout on the Empire 6.
 
There is a $279,432 carryover going into this afternoon and the wager spans the last six races on the card. I have been a vocal critic of jackpot type wagers, as in general they are a bad bet for horseplayers unless there is a huge carryover or a mandatory payout like today.
 
Complicating matters will be the forecast, as there is a 90-100% chance of rain between the hours of 10:00 am and 3:00 pm. The rain is supposed to start early in the morning, and I am assuming we are going to be off the turf today.
 
The feature is the $125,000 Zagora which is carded for 1 ½ miles on turf and would be run at 1 ¼ miles on the main track if the rains come. The race drew 13 but is likely to scratch down if we shift to the dirt.
 
The $100,000 Pumpkin Pie is in the Empire 6 sequence and is scheduled for the main track at seven furlongs. Chalon looks like a dangerous threat as the 9-5 morning line favorite. She missed by just a head in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1).
 
 The $100,000 Chelsey Flower was carded as the fourth race and goes before the Empire 6 starts. A field of 13 were entered, but this race is scheduled for turf at one mile and could be moved to the main track.
 
The Chad Brown trained Princesa Caroline is the 2-1 morning line favorite off an impressive maiden win on turf.
 
Aqueduct opens next Friday, which means I have a couple of extra days this week to work exclusively on my Breeders’ Cup Report, which should be posted by Thursday morning.
 
My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my nine strongest plays from Belmont Park and Santa Anita.
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday and my two-day Breeders’ Cup Report.
 
To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here.
 
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
 
BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
#5 Kinenos   5-1
#9 Eagerly   3-1
#14 Amends   7-2
#1 Plan of Attack   6-1
 
Analysis: Kinenos gets the call and the forecast does not look promising for being on the turf today. Our top pick made a good late run to finish third in his debut on the turf here. Cox hits at a 21% clip with second out maidens. This guy is bred to like a wet track, by Empire Maker out of a Harlan's Holiday mare, her first foal to race.
 
Eagerly adds blinkers here for his third career start. He was the beaten favorite in each of his first two starts, a close up third in hers debut and a runner up finish last out. He is out of the stakes winner Excited ($244,796) who won on a wet track and who has dropped two other foals to race, both winners including stakes winner Thrilled ($333,153).
 
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 5,9 / 1,5,9,14
TRI: 5,9 / 1,5,9,14 / 1,4,5,9,14
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
 
BEL Race 7 The Pumpkin Pie (3:47 ET)
#7 Chalon   9-5
#6 Ms Locust Point   7-2
#5 Majestic Reason   5-1
#3 Philanthropic   6-1
 
Analysis: Chalon was the beaten favorite last out in the TCA (G2) at Keeneland where she checked in fourth beaten 3 1/4 lengths. The Delacour trainee has landed in the exacta in 14 of her 18 career starts including missing winning the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) last year by a head. She won the Roamin Rachel two back at Philly and won the Skipat back in May at Pimlico. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and is going to be tough in this spot as the chalk.
 
Ms Locust Point dueled for the early lead and finished gamely in a runner up finish in the Regret last out at Monmouth Park. She was no match for our top pick two back in the Roamin Rachel where she checked in fifth but is capable of better than that effort. She has run ell on wet tracks (4-2-1-1) and Carmouche gets the call and she owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers. Expect this gal to be flying early.
 
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 3,5,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 3,5,6,7 / 3,5,6,7,8
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:
 
SA Race 6 Clm $32,000 (3:04 PT)
#2 Arch Anthem   6-1
#5 Tequila Joe   4-1
#7 Winning Element   3-1
#1 Perfectly Majestic   5-2
 
Analysis: Arch Anthem is back on turf here after stalking the early pace and weakening to finish sixth last out going a mile on the main track at Del Mar. His last win came on turf at Golden gate Fields where he beat $50,000 starter allowance foes. He was claimed out of his last outing by the Baltas barn that is 33% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. The gelding makes his third start of his current form cycle while getting a jock and barn upgrade.
 
Tequila Joe won for this tag two back at Del Mar on turf going nine furlongs, winning by a nose. He regressed last out against Alw-2 optional claimers here and now drops back in for a tag. Looking for him to bounce back with a better effort in this spot.
 
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 1,2,5,7
TRI: 2,5 / 1,2,5,7 / 1,2,3,5,7
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Belmont Park
R2: #1 Gallant Bid   8-1
R3: #6 Hawaiian Noises   10-1
R4: #9 Micheline   12-1
R5: #8 Cardiff Cay   10-1
R8: #5 Lady Montdore   8-1
R8: #2 Homeland Security   8-1
R8: #3 Pamina   12-1
 
Good luck today!

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