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Horse Racing

BC – Distaff

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
Welcome to Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Preview, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 1 and Saturday November 2 at Santa Anita in Arcadia, California. VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race. If you want to know what Anthony will be betting on both Breeders’ Cup days, make sure to check back on Friday and Saturday to purchase Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Picks and Plays of the Day, a look at how he’ll wager on each and every race, available EXCLUSIVELY at VegasInsider.com. To purchase Anthony Stabile Pick Packs, Click to win!

Distance: 1 1/8 miles
Purse: $2 million
Age: 3up(f&m)
Date: Saturday, November 1
Time: 7:00 pm EDT

The History

In what could be considered the most memorable moment in the history of the Breeders’ Cup, Personal Ensign gunned down Kentucky Derby winner Winning Colors in THE final stride of the 1988 running at Churchill Downs. Bayakoa won back to back runnings the following two years. Inside Information won it in 1995 by 13 ½ lengths, the largest winning margin in Breeders’ Cup history. Before tackling the boys twice, Zenyatta graced this race with her presence when she won it in 2008.

Royal Delta won her second consecutive running in 2012 before failing in her attempt to three-peat in 2013 when 2012 Juvenile Fillies champ Beholder became the first winner of a juvenile event to win another Breeders’ Cup race. Rosie Napravnik announced her retirement after guiding the three-year-old Untapable to a popular score in 2014. In 2016, Beholder beat the undefeated Songbird by a nostril in the “mother of all Distaffs,” joining Goldikova as the only other horse to win tree Breeders’ Cup races.

Favorites: 15 for 35 (43%)
Shortest: $2.80 (Life’s Magic Entry, 1985)
Highest: $113.80 (Spain, 2000)
The champ is here? No. Monomoy Girl is still in training but was unable to defend her crown this year.

Best

Midnight Bisou puts her perfect season on the line when she looks to improve on her third-place finish in this event last year while returning to the place where she started her career.

Trained now by Steve Asmussen, Midnight Bisou started her career with California trainer Bill Spawr and accomplished plenty, winning three of her six starts, including the G1 Santa Anita Oaks, before being transferred to her new barn due to the lack of races for sophomore fillies on the west coast.

A picture of consistency wherever she goes, Midnight Bisou has turned into one of the more accomplished fillies of the decade with wins in five different G1 races over the past two years.

Just this season alone, she’s won all seven starts at five different tracks, including three G1 events – the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn, Phipps at Belmont and Personal Ensign at Saratoga – with the last coming against Elate who figures to take plenty of action in the Classic.

Midnight Bisou has never been off the board in 18 starts and has won two of five with a second and two thirds at this nine-furlong distance though it is arguably not her best.

Rest

Blue Prize won the G1 Spinster at Keeneland for the second year in a row, passing all four of her rivals to win by a half-length. Fourth in this last year, she’s won half of her 12 starts at this trip but will need to improve off of her career best effort last out.

Dunbar Road has won four of her six starts, including the G2 Mother Goose at Belmont and G1 Alabama at Saratoga going 10 furlongs, as she makes just her second start against older fillies and mares. She was stuck on a dead rail in the Spinster and forced to lay closer to the pace than usual while on her way to a third-place finish.

La Force took the G2 Santa Maria with a last-to-first run back in June over this course, the lone stakes win of her career and only win from five starts this year. She’ll need to find her form from earlier this year to compete as she comes into this off of off-the-board performances in the G2 Mabee and G1 Zenyatta.

Mo See Cal will be making her graded stakes debut coming off a secondary allowance/optional claiming win when blinkers were removed.

Ollie’s Candy won the first two dirt starts of her career, the G2 Summertime Oaks last year over this strip and the G1 Clement Hirsch at Del Mar two back before a third-place finish in the Zenyatta. She’ll be making her first start at nine furlongs on dirt though she did just miss at the distance on turf last year in the G1 Del Mar Oaks.

Paradise Woods won the Zenyatta from just off the pace last out. She won the Santa Anita Oaks and Zenyatta back in 2017 when she finished third in this event and the G2 Santa Maria earlier this year by over 10 lengths.

Secret Spice has finished second in her last three starts - the G1 La Troienne at Churchill on Kentucky Oaks Day, Hirsch and Zenyatta – after nailing down her lone stakes win in the G1 Beholder Mile back in March, her only win in five tries this year.

Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress is a need the lead type who loses all chance when not in front. When she does get to the lead, she’s dangerous, as evident by her Oaks score, second place finish to the flashy Guarana in the G1 Acorn and tough-beat second in the G1 Test to F&M Sprint favorite Covfefe. Last out, she was wrestled off the pace and finished nowhere in the G1 Cotillion at Parx.

Street Band won for the fourth time in seven starts when running down Guarana in the Cotillion last out when she got a perfect pace set-up. She won the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks and G3 Indiana Oaks earlier this year and was third in the Alabama as well.

Wow Cat finished second in this last year but is winless in three starts since. She was no match for the favorite when fourth in the Personal Ensign and second in the Beldame. She has hit the board in six of her seven starts at this trip.

If I’m Right…

I think we’ve seen the best we’re going to get from Midnight Bisou, who’ll likely be the shortest-priced favorite of the weekend. I don’t think that can be said about Dunbar Road. I’m looking forward to the day we do. Maybe this is that day.

Live Longshot

Wow Cat rarely grabs the brass ring but she always seems to grab a piece. I would have to think some of the speedier fillies will get some play and that she’ll be sent off at double digit odds.


Anthony “the Big A” Stabile can be heard regularly on the Horse Racing Radio Network from 3-6:00 p.m. ETon Wednesday and 3-7:00 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday. Tune in on Sirius 219, XM 201 or streaming live at horseracingradio.net. He also is a contributor on NYRA-TV as the co-host of Talking Horses and a backup racetrack announcer. Follow him on Twitter @TheBigAStabile

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