Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:56 AM
BC - Filly & Mare Sprint
Welcome to Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Preview, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 1 and Saturday November 2 at Santa Anita in Arcadia, California. VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race. If you want to know what Anthony will be betting on both Breeders’ Cup days, make sure to check back on Friday and Saturday to purchase Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Picks and Plays of the Day, a look at how he’ll wager on each and every race, available EXCLUSIVELY at VegasInsider.com. To purchase Anthony Stabile Pick Packs, Click to win!
Distance: 7 furlongs
Purse: $ 1million
Date: Saturday, November 2
Time: 2:55 pm EDT
Run at six furlongs in 2007 because Monmouth Park isn’t configured for the intended distance. Groupie Doll became the first back to back winner in 2013.
Favorites: 3 for 12 (25%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Groupie Doll, 2012)
Highest: $135.40 (Bar of Gold, 2017)
The champ is here? Shamrock Rose is not participating this year.
Covfefe figures to be a slight favorite when she tries to run her record to a perfect three-for-three at this distance when she faces older fillies and mares for just the second time in her career for trainer Brad Cox.
A winner of five of her seven career starts, Covfefe has shown flashes of brilliance on more than one occasion and is less than a length away from being perfect in her five starts this year. A thrilling tally in the G3 Miss Preakness at Pimlico where she set the track record on Black-Eyed Susan day along with a memorable stretch duel with G1 Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress that she won in the G1 Test at Saratoga going this trip, highlight her season.
It is worth noting however that her lone defeat in 2019 came when she tried her hand against older fillies and mares in the Roxelana where she was defeated by fellow G1 winner Mia Mischief.
Come Dancing will look to give her trainer Carlos Martin his first Breeders’ Cup victory while seeking her third straight win. It’s taken a while for this mare to overcome some issues but her connections’ patience have paid off as she’s won four of five starts in this, her five-year-old season, with her lone defeat coming at the hands of Distaff favorite Midnight Bisou in the G1 Ogden Phipps going 1 1/16 miles on Belmont Stakes day in New York.
Come Dancing has won both her starts at the distance this year, including the G1 Ballerina at Saratoga after she was forced to come from off the pace after encountering some trouble at the start, as well as the G3 Distaff at Aqueduct in her first start of the season at Aqueduct where she earned a 114 Beyer number, the second fastest number earned by any horse this season.
Though her speed figures are considerably lighter than her two main rivals, Spiced Perfection has had a solid season while making just four starts in 2019 since being taken over by Peter Miller. Miller began training the filly after she won the G1 La Brea over the course and at the trip on Opening Dy last year. A second-place finish in the G3 Barbara Fritchie at Laurel where she was compromised by an inside trip was followed by a determined victory in the G1 Madison at Keeneland before she returned there after missing the summer with an impressive score in the G2 TCA by a head after breaking a beat slow.
Bellafina is perfect in four starts at Santa Anita, including a pair of G1 wins in the Chandelier as a juvenile and Santa Anita Oaks this past spring, both around two turns. She won the G1 Del Mar Debutante in her third career start and the G2 Santa Ynez to kick off this year at this trip. She’ll cut back to a sprint having finished fourth in the G1 Cotillion last out when the blinkers went back on. She’ll have to overcome some recent gate issues as she’s been off slowly in her last two tries in what will be her first start against her elders.
Danuska’s My Girl didn’t break her maiden until her eighth start when she was dropped into a claiming race in July 2018 at Del Mar but has since won five more times, including three G3 events in SoCal. Usually on the front end, she lost all chance when she was bumped at the start of the TCA but did manage to pass a few rivals late.
Dawn the Destroyer stormed home from last in the TCA to miss by just a head after finishing second in the Ballerina. Since minor throat surgery late last year, she’s finished off the board just once in eight start and won a minor stakes at Aqueduct going this distance in January.
Heavenhasmynikki rides a three-race win streak dating back to April into this. A gate-to-wire score in the G3 Vagrancy at Aqueduct back in May is sandwiched between an allowance win at Mahoning Valley and a statebred stakes tally at Thistledown, both in her native Ohio. She’s been off-the-board in her two starts at this distance, including a fifth-place La Brea finish.
Another who has gone from claimer to stakes winner is Lady Ninja. Entered for as little as $25K less than a year ago, she won for $40K in February and four of seven starts overall this season, including a gutsy off-the-pace score in the G3 LA Woman most recently going a sixteenth of a mile shorter.
Selcourt was the one Lady Ninja ran down last out, the third time she’s finished second in four starts this year, all over the strip. Sent off as one of the choices at under 6-1 in the event last year, Selcourt is looking for her first win since wiring the field in the G2 Santa Monica at this trip and over the course back in March 2018.
If I’m Right…
Quite a few of these fillies and mares will be looking for the lead early on. Going seven furlongs, as far as the favorites go, the advantage goes to Come Dancing as she has shown an ability to win a variety of ways.
I’ve always felt that Dawn the Destroyer had a big win in her. Maybe this is the one. She should get a solid pace to run at and be in the 12-1 range.
Anthony “the Big A” Stabile can be heard regularly on the Horse Racing Radio Network from 3-6:00 p.m. ETon Wednesday and 3-7:00 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday. Tune in on Sirius 219, XM 201 or streaming live at horseracingradio.net. He also is a contributor on NYRA-TV as the co-host of Talking Horses and a backup racetrack announcer. Follow him on Twitter @TheBigAStabile