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Nov 14, 2019

At the Gate - Thursday

We are back in action at Aqueduct on Thursday and it has been a pleasant surprise so far during the meeting as we have had plenty of large fields and appealing betting races.

There will be some scratches today, but seven of the nine races have at least 10 runners entered. The shortest field comes in the third race where seven were entered and two are cross entered tomorrow so we likely will have a field of five.

The early Pick 5 still looks like a very appealing wager. The first two races are wide open affairs and after a short field in the third we have 10 going in the fourth race, a maiden special weight race on turf and 10 are entered with nine likely to start in the fifth race, a $16,000 claimer.

Turf racing is certainly helping field size and we know that will be going away soon as the weather is getting colder.

The Saturday feature coming up at the Big A is the $100,000 Key Cents for two-year-old fillies going six furlongs on the main track.

To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Thursday click here.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md $25,000 (12:20 ET)

8 Bebeau 7-2

7 Sneads 8-5

4 Qaabil 4-1

3 Final Say 8-1


Analysis: Bebeau was outrun last out in an eighth pale finish on turf for a $75,000 tag last out and drops into a better spot here. Two back this gelding dueled for the early lead and held on for the runner up spot in a good effort for a $40,000 tag in his first start off the claim by the Brown barn. The winner of that race as Duress, who came back to beat $50,000 starter allowance foes in his next outing on Nov. 11. This guy has run well on dirt and pedigree wise may be better suited for the switch back. He was a $400,000 purchase out of the graded stakes winner Bickersons ($257,485).

Sneads tracked the early pace and finished evenly after coming wide into the stretch to finish third last out against $30,000 foes. He was claimed out of the race by the RRod barn that is 26% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. He has landed in the money in each of his last three starts and catches a field here he can beat although his price is going to be on the light side. He is out of a stakes placed Empire Maker mare, her first foal to race.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 7,8 / 3,4,7,8
TRI: 7,8 / 3,4,7,8 / 3,4,5,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 Alw $75,000N1X (3:47 ET)

8 Everyonelovesjames 4-1

6 Spirit Animal 5-2

2 Conviction Trade 6-1

1 Clear Vision 10-1


Analysis: Everyonelovesjames set the early fractions over a wet track and could not go with the winner in a runner up finish in race taken off the turf. The main track that day was playing to outside stalkers and closers. He passed his first two state bred conditions back in June in back to back races, taking the fields gate to wire. He owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers, and he is the lone runner in the field that has beaten winners. Rosario picks up the call here and this guy should bounce back with a better effort on the surface switch.

Spirit Animal is sent out by the Brown barn for his first start off nearly a four-month break. Last out he was the beaten favorite where he tracked the early pace and had to steady off heels late. The colt graduated at the Spa last September and then was fifth in eh Pilgrim (G3) in his first start against winners. The barn is 27% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff. He looks like he has more upside than most of this group.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 1,2,6,8
TRI: 6,8 / 1,2,6,8 / 1,2,5,6,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #3 Final Say 8-1
R2: #11 Excess Capacity 8-1
R2: #5 Factoring 8-1
R3: #1 Seaside Retreat 8-1
R3: #6 Mirabell Mel 10-1
R3: #3 Kansas Kis 8-1
R4: #12 Back Charge 10-1
R5: #7 Princess Victoria 8-1
R7: #10 Bebe Banker 8-1
R8: #1 Clear Vision 10-1

Good luck today!

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