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Horses

Dec 30, 2019

At the Gate - Tuesday

I have to be honest, we are ending the year with kind of a dud at Aqueduct, as we have a less than stellar card on Tuesday with a few too many short priced favorites.

On the bright side we will ring in the New Year on Wednesday with our first Road to the Kentucky Derby points race of 2020—the $150,000 Jerome at a mile on the main track which drew a field of seven. The problem is it too looks very chalky.

Independence Hall is the overwhelming 1-5 morning line favorite for the Jerome. The Michael Trombetta trainee broke his maiden at Parx Racing by 4 ¾ lengths, then popped a 101 Beyer Speed Figure winning the Nashua (G3) at Aqueduct at a mile by 12 ¼ lengths.

Three of his foes are coming off maiden wins and only one rival has run in stakes company. That is 30-1 longshot Inside Risk, who was sixth in the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga and ninth in the Grey (G3) at Woodbine on the Tapeta surface.




The remainder of Wednesday’s card looks good and we have several large fields.

Tuesday’s card has the potential to chalk out as we have short priced favorites Vibrancy (3-5) in the opener, 6-5 Excess Capacity in the second race, Modernist is even money on the morning line in the third and Other Things Equal is even money in the fifth.

We need to beat at least two of those to get a decent payoff in the early Pick 5. In the late Pick 5 we have to deal with more chalk including Operation Roses (1-1) in the sixth and 2-5 chalk Communicator in the seventh.

It looks as if we might be able to beat those two, which gives us a shot of ending 2019 with a decent payoff.

To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Tuesday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package . It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md $50,000 (12:30 ET)
#5 Superbloodwolfmoon 4-1
#3 Vibrancy 3-5
#2 Saffron Girl 9-2
#1 Wicked Kheisha / 1a Shine Like Bobby 8-1

Analysis: Superbloodwolfmoon drops in for a tag after setting the early fractions and tiring to finish eighth last out over good turf. Two back in her last trip on dirt coming at Laurel Park she chased the early pace setter and weakened to finish fifth. The RRod barn is 28% winners (with a +ROI) dropping runners from maiden special to maiden claiming. The filly is by Malibu Moon out of a stakes placed Tale of the Cat mare that ash dropped three other foals to race, all winners. She should be right in the mix early and catches an easier spot here.

Vibrancy drops in for a tag for her second career start here for the Cox barn. She was sent off at 5-2 in a five horse field in her debut, chasing the early pace and finishing evenly in a third-place finish. She faces easier her and does not need to move forward much off her debut effort to pick up her diploma here. The barn is 22% winner with second out maidens. She is out of a stakes placed Bowman's Band mare that has dropped one other foal to race, stakes winner Archumybaby ($396,394).

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 2,3,5
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 6 Alw $64,000N1X (2:58 ET)
#3 Silver Seeker 6-1
#8 Operation Roses 1-1
#7 Financialstability 3-1
#9 Bebe Banker 8-1

Analysis: Silver Seeker invades from Turfway Park where last out over the polytrack the gelding took Alw-2L foes gate to wire going 6 1/2 furlongs in his first start off the layoff. He graduated in his debut on the main track at Indiana Grand, then was fourth on turf in his first start against winners. Now he takes on New York breds for the first time here and with just one start under his belt on conventional dirt may still have some upside. A couple of bullet works on the morning tab in Kentucky since his last outing and the 6-1 morning line looks fair.

Operation Roses took the field gate to wire to graduate in the slop in his debut and earned a solid number drawing off to win by seven lengths. Four have come out of the race to run back with one next out winner, the 11th place finisher Clamor beating $35,000 maiden claimers at Gulfstream Park on Dec. 19. He is bred to go long and the seven furlongs here should not pose a problem. The main knock is the light price. He has worked quickly since his maiden score.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 3,8 / 3,7,8,9
TRI: 3,8 / 3,7,8,9 / 2,4,7,8,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #1 Wicked Kheisha / 1a Shine Like Bobby 8-1
R3: #1 Call Me Later 12-1
R5: #5 Talent Scout 15-1
R5: #8 Waynes Footsteps 8-1
R6: #9 Bebe Banker 8-1
R7: #1 Creative Style 12-1
R8: #6 Lorcan 10-1
R8: #2 Might Wind 15-1

Good luck today!

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