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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Saturday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read
Seven New York breds will line up in Saturday’s feature at Aqueduct, the $100,000 Say Florida Sandy. The race is at seven furlongs on the main track with My Boy Tate the 5-2 morning line favorite.
 
The Michelle Nevin trainee came off a 13-month layoff to win the Thunder Rumble Division of the New York Stallion Series which was contested in the slop.
 
There is a good chance his price may end up lighter than the 5-2 morning line, so I am looking for a better price with Arthur’s Hope. He is better than he showed last out in a fourth place finish against second level optional claimers in his last outing.
 
There are two stakes at Santa Anita this afternoon. The first is the $100,000 Las Ciengas (G3) which drew a puny field of five and I passed.
 
The feature is the $200,000 La Canada (G3) for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the main track, drawing a field of eight.
 
Spiced Perfection is the 5-2 morning line favorite. The mare won the Go for Wand Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct in her last outing and ships west. She took advantage of a racing strip that was playing to speed in her last outing.
 
I am going to look for more value with Horologist, who wo four races in a row last year including the Monmouth Oaks (G3). She lost her last two outings, a third in eth Cotillion (G1) and a ninth in the Raven Run (G2).
 
She has been freshened by trainer Richard Baltas and I am expecting to see a much better effort out of this filly this afternoon.
 
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my eight strongest plays from Aqueduct and Santa Anita.
 
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Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
 
AQU Race 1 Md $25,000 (12:30 ET)
#2 Hudson Overpass   7-2
#4 The Joke's On You   2-1
#3 Principal Dancer   3-1
#1 Gongheifatchoy   4-1
 
Analysis: Hudson Overpass prompted the early pace in the slop over a racing strip that was kind to outside stalkers and closers and he had the lead heading for home but could not match strides late with the winner in a runner up finish for this tag. He was a game second two back in his first start on dirt after making his first six starts on turf. The beaten chalk last out at 4-5 it looks as if he may end up offering a bit more value in this spot.
 
The Joke's On You stalked the early pace and finished evenly in a fourth-place finish in the mud behind a couple of foes he runs into again here. He was sent off as the favorite last out which was his first start for a tag. His best efforts were over a fast main track in his first two career starts. The Maker trainee fits well in this spot and he will appreciate the returns to a fast main track.
 
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 1,2,3,4
TRI: 2,4 / 1,2,3,4 / 1,2,3,4,5
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
 
AQU Race 8 The Say Florida Sandy (3:55 ET)
#6 Arthur's Hope   5-1
#3 My Boy Tate   5-2
#5 T Loves a Fight   7-2
#1 Aveenu Malcainu   9-2
 
Analysis: Arthur’s Hope has won 11 of his 25 career starts and is back with New York breds after a fourth last out against Alw-2 optional claimers here going six furlongs. He prompted the early pace while down along a deep rail and weakened to finish 3 ½ lengths behind the winner with the bug Correa aboard. Two back he dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish fourth in a New York Stallion Series race behind a couple of foes he faces again today. That outing two back was off a four-month break. He earned a triple digit Beyer four back at Parx beating non-conditioned allowance company and could be sitting on a good one here in his third start of his current for cycle. I like the jock switch here from the bug to Carmouche.
 
My Boy Tate came back off a 13-month layoff to win a New York Stallion Series race in a sharp effort. This guy won this race back in 2018 in the slop and then won the state bred Hollie Hughes in his following start, earning back to back career tops. The gelding is perfect in his three starts at seven furlongs although all three have been on off tracks. He has worked sharply since his last outing for Nevin who has started off the meeting on the cold side, going 0 for 16 with five seconds. He should move forward second off the bench, but his price may end up on the light side.
 
T Loves a Fight is coming off a decent effort in the Gravesand. He tracked the early pace and finished evenly in a third-place finish, beaten 1 ½ lengths for the top spot. He made a good late rally two back to finish in the runner up spot behind My Boy Tate. Noda claimed this guy for just $10,000 last May and he has won four times for the barn including beating state bred Alw-2 foes at the Spa and open Alw-2 company at Belmont Park in October. He will appreciate the return to the state bred ranks here.
 
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 3,6 / 1,3,5,6
TRI: 3,6 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,3,5,6,7
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:
 
SA Race 8 The La Canada G3 (4:07 PT)
#6 Horologist   4-1
#3 Queen Bee to You   3-1
#7 Spiced Perfection   5-2
#1 Der Lu   4-1
 
Analysis: Horologist returns off nearly a three-month break after she tossed in a clunker in the Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland going seven furlongs. She reeled off four wins in a row last year before running third in the Cotillion (G1). She has been working sharply in the mornings and figures to bounce back here with the freshening. The Baltas barn is 17% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff.
 
Queen Bee to You is coming off a sharp win in the Bayakoa (G3) at Los Al over a wet track. She matched her career top which she earned wining the state bred Betty Grable two back at Del Mar going seven furlongs. The mare comes in here in the sharpest for of her career for the capable Lerner barn. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and while she is just 1 for 9 over the main track here she has landed in the money in seven of those outings.
 
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 3,6 / 1,3,6,7
TRI: 3,6 / 1,3,6,7 / 1,3,4,6,7
 
Aqueduct
R2: #7 Majestic Affair   8-1
R3: #5 Continuation   8-1
R4: #1 Jimmy Lee   12-1
R5: #11 Quest for Fire   10-1
R5: #1 Letsgometz   12-1
R7: #2 Whistling Birds   8-1
R8: #9 Menzamenz   8-1
 
Good luck today!

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