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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Saturday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
9 minute read
We have three Road to the Kentucky Derby points races this afternoon and it is not the strongest group of races, with a combined 21 runners entered in the trio of preps with a couple of chalks that are below even money on the morning line.
 
It may not make for good betting races but there are plenty of other solid betting races on the cards at Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park.
 
Only six will go in the $100,000 Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita. The track has been hit with a horse shortage and just announced yesterday that for the next three weeks there will be no racing on Thursdays.
 
The Bob Baffert trained Thousand Words is the 4-5 morning line favorite coming off a victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1). He looks tough, his biggest threat likely to come from either Encoder or High Velocity.
 
Seven go to the post in the $250,000 Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park. Champagne (G1) winner Tiz the Law is the 3-5 morning line favorite. The colt is sent out by trainer Barclay Tagg and the Sackatoga Stable, who campaigned Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide who was fifth in the 2003 Holy Bull.
 
The most competitive of the three Derby preps appears to be the $250,000 Withers (G3) which drew a field of eight. Remsen (G3) winner Shotski is looking to pick up 10 more Derby points and is the 2-1 morning line favorite.
 
As you can see below, I landed on Max Player, who will be facing winners for the first time after an impressive maiden score at Parx Racing in his second career start.
 
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 13 strongest plays from Aqueduct, Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park.
 
To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here.
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday which will include all of the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
 
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
 
AQU Race 1 Md $50,000 (1:00 ET)
#3 Superbloodwolfmoon   2-1
#1 Indawin   4-5
#4 Getonmy Good Side   10-1
#6 Make Or Break   5-1
 
Analysis: Superbloodwolfmoon chased the early pace opened up a clear lead and then got run down late in a runner up finish last out in the slop in her first go for a tag. She caught a racing strip that was playing to outside stalkers and closers that day. She appears to be on the improve and worth another look here in her second start at a mile. The RRod runner is out of a Tale of the Cat mare that has dropped three other foals to race, all winners.
 
Indawin set the early fractions and weakened to finish third last out and now drops in for a tag for the first time here. The Pletcher barn is 38% winners dropping runners from maiden special to maiden claiming. She owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and is not going to have to move forward much off her last effort or three back where she was beaten just ahead to handle this weak looking group.
 
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,4
TRI: no play
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
 
AQU Race 8 The Withers G3 (4:25 ET)
#3 Max Player   9-2
#5 Shotski   2-1
#2 Monday Morning Qb   4-1
#8 Portos   3-1
 
Analysis: Max Player faces winners for the first time here after graduating at Philly last out in his second career start for the Rice barn. The colt was a solid second in his debut going a mile behind Ahraq, who came back to finish sixth in the Central Park here on Dec. 6. Second out our top pick caught a sloppy track and drew off to win by 4 1/4 lengths. The runner up, fifth and sixth place finishers all came out of that race to graduate in their next starts. The colt has enough pedigree to go nine furlongs, by Grade 1 winner Honor Code out of the stakes winner Fools in Love who has dropped four other foals to race, all winners, top earner Group 2 winner Seahenge ($228,295) and also Urban Bourbon ($113,381) who was stakes placed at nine furlongs. He looks as if he still has some upside, has shown he can handle two turns and may end up a decent price with his two starts coming at Philly.
 
Shotski took the field gate to wire to win the Remsen (G2) last out here at nine furlongs. He did catch a racing strip that was kind to inside speed that day. The O'Dwyer trainee just gets better with each outing and with more distance. He graduated at Laurel Park in his second career start going six furlongs and then as fourth beaten 2 1/4 lengths in the Street Sense at Churchill Downs going a one turn mile. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers but will not have things as easy up front as he did last out. He is bred to handle the distance, by Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Blame out of a Bluegrass Cat mare that has dropped two other winners. He fits well in this spot, but his price may end up on the short side.
 
Monday Morning Qb graduated at Philly in his second career start and then shipped to Laurel Park where he won the seven-furlong Heft in a sharp effort. The colt stretches out to a route of ground for the first time here and he has earned solid numbers sprinting in his last two starts. He is by Imagining out of a Not For Love mare, her first foal to race. He is in a capable barn with the Philly based Reid who is 11% winners moving runners from sprint to route.
 
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 2,3,5,8
TRI: 3,5 / 2,3,5,8 / 2,3,5,6,8
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
 
GP Race 9 The Swale G3 (4:04 ET)
#2 Untitled   3-1
#4 Green Light Go   2-1
#1 Mischievous Alex   7-2
#6 Necker Island   6-1
 
Analysis: Untitled took the field gate to wire with an impressive maiden score in his debut here on Dec. 14. He was purchased privately and lands with the Casse barn. The Beyer was strong and the runner up Cross Court came back to graduate in his next outing on Jan. 9, his Beyer going from a 74 in his second to a 65 in his win, which could indicate our top pick's Beyer was generous. The colt earned solid early and mid pace numbers in his maiden win and gives every indication he is going to move forward second out and with another furlong. He has a solid off track pedigree, by Khozan out of an Elusive Quality mare that has dropped two other foals to race, both winners.
 
Green Light Go makes his first start since a solid second in the Champagne (G1) at a mile last October behind Tiz the Law who goes later today in the Holy Bull (G3). The colt broke his maiden in his debut at Belmont park and then tracked the early pace and took command heading for home to win the Saratoga Special (G2) at 6 1/2 furlongs in his second career start. He has been working sharply t Palm Meadows for the Jerkens barn that is 18% winners with runners coming back off a +90-day break. This guy is bed to handle a wet track. He is by Hard Spun out of the stakes winner Light Green ($167,690).
 
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 1,2,4,6
TRI: 2,4 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,2,4,6,7
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:
 
SA Race 8 The San Pasqual G2 (4:02 PT)
#5 Midcourt   3-1
#1 Roadster   7-2
#6 Instagrand   12-1
#3 Restrainedvengence   4-1
 
Analysis: Midcourt was off a beat slow last out in the San Antonio (G2) and after staling the pace did not have enough punch left late in a third-place finish. The gelding earned a career top two back in his graded stakes debut where he took the field gate to wire to win the Native Diver (G3) at Del Mar at nine furlongs. The Shirreffs trainee owns a solid pace profile throughout and should have a good tracking trip here sitting just off the pace. He was looking better with each outing until the slight regression last out.
 
Roadster stalked the early pace and finished up well while not a real threat to Omaha Beach in a runner up finish in the seven-furlong Malibu (G1). He won the Santa Anita Derby (G1) here last year at nine furlongs but has gone 0 for 5 since. He has worked sharply since his last start for Baffert who is 26% winners moving runners from sprint to route. The stretch out will suit him and the 7-2 morning line looks fair, but he may end up lighter.
 
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,3,5,6
TRI: 1,5 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,3,4,5,6
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Aqueduct
R1: #4 Getonmy Good Side   10-1
R2: #5 Yes for Less   8-1
R2: #3 Rejected Again   8-1
R4: #7 Later Cat   12-1
R7: #1 Digital Footprint   8-1
R9: #2 Toohottoevenspeak   8-1
 
Good luck today!

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