Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:54 AM

Horse Racing Best Bets At the Gate - Saturday

It’s the calm before the storm this weekend with no Road to the Kentucky Derby points race, but over the next month we will have 11 Derby preps which may start to sort out a wide open group of three-year-olds looking for Roses.
The feature at Aqueduct this afternoon is for state breds, a field of six lining up in the $100,000 Haynesfield. Mr. Buff is the 4-5 morning line favorite and with triple digit Beyers in his last two starts looks tough.
However, he figures to be about 3-5 when they load him in the gate so as you can see below, I am looking at the defending champ Honor Up, who is going to offer a bit more value.
We have two stakes at Gulfstream Park today including the $100,000 World of Trouble Sprint (G3) which drew a field of eight.
Lasting Legacy is the 7-5 morning line favorite. The Jason Servis trainee was second in the Mr. Prospector (G3) in his last start at Gulfstream Park. Two back he won the Mr. Prospector, that one ungraded at Monmouth Park.
Again, his price is going to be light and I think we have a shot of a mild upset with Epic Dreamer, who cuts back to six furlongs after fading badly in the Fred Hooper (G3) at a mile in his last outing.
The co-feature at Gulfstream Park is the $75,000 Any Limit. Eight three-year-old fillies go six furlongs on the main track.
Sound Machine is the 8-5 morning line favorite. The filly drew off to win the Glitter Woman by 6 ½ lengths in her last outing.
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my nine strongest plays from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park.
To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here.
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Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md $20,000 (1:20 ET)
#5 Informed Consent   7-2
#4 Sneads   4-5
#7 Tony Small   5-2
#3 Splitting Eights   10-1
Analysis: Informed Consent caught a sloppy track in his debut for the Brown barn. Sent off at 7-2 the gelding stalked the early pace and came up short in the stretch in a fourth-place finish. The winner Cavaradossi came back to beat $25,000 non-winners of tow in his next outing on Jan. 17. The gelding was claimed out of his debut by the Rice barn that is 24% winners first off the claim. He comes back for the same tag here and note this guy was a $400,000 purchase back in the fall of '17. He is out of a Dixie Union mare that ash dropped two other foals to race both winners. He is bred to handle the extra ground and Rice has good numbers on the stretch out winning at a 28% clip.
Sneads stalked the early pace and made a mild late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out going a mile here. This guy has now come up short a dozen times, landing in the money seven times. The colt was claimed by the RRod barn last fall and he has run well in his three starts without winning. Consistent numbers over his last six starts. He figures in this spot but his price is going to be on the light side.
WIN: #5 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 3,4,5,7
TRI: 4,5 / 3,4,5,7 / 1,3,4,5,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 9 The World of Trouble Sprint G3 (4:04 ET)
#1 Epic Dreamer   4-1
#2 Lasting Legacy   7-5
#4 Admiral Lynch   7-2
#8 Yorkton   8-1
Analysis: Epic Dreamer cuts back to a sprint after pressing the early pace and fading to finish 12th in the Fred Hooper (G3). This guy was a sharp winner two back at six furlongs beating up on Alw-2 optional claimers earning a solid number. The Breen barn is 29% winners moving runners from route to sprint. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and figures to rebound here on the cut back.
Lasting Legacy made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out in the Mr. Prospector (G3) at seven furlongs. This six-year-old has earned triple digit Beyers in each of his last three outings. He cuts back to six furlongs and he should get an honest pace to run at, but his price is going to be on the light side and we will try to beat him for the top spot.
WIN: #1 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4,8
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,4,8 / 1,2,4,6,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 The Haynesfield (4:50 ET)
#3 Honor Up   4-1
#1 Mr. Buff   4-5
#2 Syndergaard   3-1
#4 I Love Jaxson   5-1
Analysis: Honor Up is the defending champ of this race, winning it by a nose last year paying $6.80. He is 0 for 3 since that win, a third in the Carter ‘Cap (G1) and a fifth in the state bred Commentator before hitting the bench. He returned last out against state bred non-conditioned allowance foes here in the slop on Dec. 30. The Nevin trainee tracked the early pace while saving ground, angled out four wide and weakened to finish sixth. The winner Sicilia Mike came back to beat open Alw-1 company on Feb. 8 and the third-place finisher Tribecca beat Alw-2 optional claimers in his next outing on Feb. 9. He stretches out to a mile for his second start off the bench and figures to move forward off his comeback effort. He has done some of his best running here landing in the exacta in six of eight starts and is going to offer more value than our second choice in here.
Mr. Buff has won three of his last four starts, taking the Jazil last out in the slop at nine furlongs. It was his seventh win in a dozen starts over the main track here. However, his last four wins have come at nine furlongs and he is just 1 for 8 at a mile. In addition, in his win in the Jazil he took the field gate to wire over a racing strip that was playing to inside speed that day. He owns four triple digit Beyers in his last 10 starts and no one else in the field has done it once. The gelding will be tough to keep out of the exacta, but we may have a shot of beating him for the top spot.
Syndergaard missed in the 2016 Champagne (G1) by just a nose as a juvenile but never lived up to his hype with just one win in a dozen starts since then, that victory coming against state bred Alw-2 optional claimers. He was beaten just a nose in this race last year and ran decent last out in the Commentator in a fourth-place finish where Mr. Buff was third. Now six, he has been working sharply in the mornings for his return off the bench here for the Terranova barn that is 6 for 19 (32% with a +ROI) with runners
WIN: #3 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,2,3
TRI: no play
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R1: #3 Splitting Eights   10-1
R2: #1 Lucky Six   10-1
R3: 31 Idaka   15-1
R4: #3 Dirty Bird   8-1
R5: #11 Talent Scout   15-1
R6: #6 Unbridled John   12-1
R9: #9 Stuy Town Baby   8-1
Good luck today!

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