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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:54 PM

Horse Racing Best Bets At the Gate - Friday

Mother Nature wiped out Thursday’s card at Aqueduct with high winds, but hopefully we will be back in action on Friday.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby makes a stop at Gulfstream Park on Saturday for the $400,000 Fountain of Youth (G2). It looked earlier this week that we might have a smallish field, but we ended up with a field of 12.

The field size might get reduced by one as Chance It (7-2) drew the 12 post and his trainer Saffie Joseph is thinking about scratching him and waiting for another spot, possibly the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on March 7. We won’t know for sure until tomorrow.

Dennis’ Moment is the 2-1 morning line favorite. The Dale Romans trainee has not started since his disappointing eighth place finish at 4-5 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last November.

The colt broke his maiden in his second career start by 19 ¼ lengths, then won the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs in his first start going around two turns.

It seems people’s opinions on this colt is split into two camps. Some think this colt is the deserving early favorite for the Kentucky Derby and is going to destroy the Fountain of Youth field in his comeback race.

Others are saying this colt may be the underlay of the card at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, and there are 14 races to choose from.

Which camp am I in? Find out tomorrow, I’m not sure myself.

Also on Saturday is the $20 million Saudi Cup, the richest race in the world. It drew an international field that includes U.S. based runners Midnight Bisou, Maximum Security, Tacitus, McKinzie and Mucho Gusto.

It was announced that wagering on the race will be available throughout the U.S., but the takeout rates are high. Win, place and show betting has a 20% vig and all exotic wagering including exactas, trifectas, superfectas as well as the Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 6 will be at 27%.

Those numbers are just really high. I think the majority of my bankroll tomorrow will be devoted to Gulfstream Park and Aqueduct.

To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Friday click here.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday which will include all of the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.

Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md $50,000 (1:20 ET)

6 Cause I Said So 3-1

4 Fevola 7-5

2 First Degree 5-2

3 Three Eyed Raven 5-1


Analysis: Cause I Said So
was sent off at 4-5 when making his local debut, was off poorly and made a mild late rally to finish third for a $50,000 tag. The gelding showed some promise with a solid runner up finish in his debut against maiden special weight foes at Gulfstream Park going 5 1/2 furlongs. he started out to a mile second out and was not a threat in a ninth-place finish. He makes his second start for Nevin and with Kendrick aboard and the outside draw this guy figures to break better. He is out of a stakes placed Student Council mare that has dropped one other foal to race, no winners to date.

Fevola drops in for a tag for his second career start after checking in fifth in his debut at 5-1 in a field of five, not much action considering the connections. The $85,000 purchase is by Midnight Lute out of a Street Sense mare, her first foal to race. He has come back with a couple of decent works for Brown who is 35% winners (with a +ROI) with second out maidens.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 2,4,6 TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 7 OClm $40,00N2X (4:25 ET)

7 Le General 9-2

5 Playthatfunnymusic 3-1

3 Bustin Shout 8-1

2 Summer Bourbon 6-1


Analysis: Le General
prompted the early pace and had the lead in the stretch but had to settle for third, beaten 3/4 of a length at this level in the mud. The colt was switching back to the main track after three tries on turf, the best effort a close up third three back. She has done her best running on dirt and beat state bred Alw-1 optional claimers in her first start against winners over a fast main track here in Dec. of '18. Franco picks up the call for Nevin and the colt will appreciate the fast surface here. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers in a race with plenty of early zip signed up. Decent value if he goes off near his 9-2 morning line.

Playthatfunny is back with state breds after a fifth against $25,000 starter allowance foes last out and a fourth two back against open Alw-2 optional claimers. Three back this guy won at this level going 6 1/2 furlongs over a wet track, which was his second start off the claim by the Tannuzzo barn. The trainer has been sending out live runners at the meeting with 14 of 18 landing in the money with five winners. The gelding cuts back to a sprint and he figures to bounce back with a better effort here on the cut back and back in with New York breds.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 2,3,5,7
TRI: 5,7 / 2,3,5,7 / 1,2,3,5,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R3: #3 Purchasing Power 12-1
R5: #1 Not So Easy 12-1
R7: #3 Bustin Shout 8-1
R8: #9 Cape Cod Diva 8-1
R8: #2 Quiettude 8-1
R8: #1 Five Alarm Robin 10-1

Good luck today!

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